The Operation of Electric Bus Fleets in Asia from a Cost-benefit Perspective
Typ
Examensarbete för masterexamen
Program
Publicerad
2021
Författare
ZHANG, Tianshu
Modellbyggare
Tidskriftstitel
ISSN
Volymtitel
Utgivare
Sammanfattning
The environmental issues and climate challenges have become hot topics in the
global social debate for decades, involving multiple parties and sectors. As one of
the major contributors to carbon emission and air pollution, the transport sector is
also proactively seeking a sustainable solution. One of the most efficient counter measures is the electrification of transportation. Due to the characteristics of high
population density and travel demand, the Asia region expresses a more pressing
need and stands out during the transition to electric public transport. Multiple
Asian countries have introduced legislation and regulations to support the develop ment of electric public transport. As the operation of electric buses is still new and
developing fast, the analysis from a cost-benefit perspective to unveil its financial
and economic performance is significant at the current stage.
A theoretical framework of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for electric bus operations
is proposed for evaluations in given social, economic, and environmental contexts.
By financial cash flow analysis, the cahs flows generated in each year in the life cy cles of electric buses are discounted to the time before initiation, the sum of which
is defined as net present value (NPV). It provides a reference for decision-makers
when comparing the performance of profitability among different alternative plans
of developing electric bus systems. Furthermore, the environmental effects which as sess the project from social aspects, are also considered in the economic CBA. Risk
assessment, sensitivity analysis and breakeven analysis are carried out to determine
how the NPVs of the projects might be influenced by risks, how sensitive the NPVs
are, how likely that the priority of the alternatives might change due to the nuances
of certain variables, respectively.
The theoretical framework is empirically used for a case study in Baicheng, China,
based on field data obtained from a structured interview with the local public trans port operator. It is found that the operations of both traditional fuel buses and
electric buses are not profitable only by ticket revenue. However, electric buses
are much less costly as compared to the traditional fuel buses in life cycles. The
monetized environmental effects do not influence the NPV substantially. A risk
breakdown structure and risk matrix are introduced to identify the risks and take
corresponding countermeasures. Through sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that
both electric buses and fuel buses are very sensitive to the change in labor cost.
Besides, fuel bus operation is also sensitive to maintenance cost and energy cost,
while electric bus operation is more sensitive to vehicle investment.This study sorts
out and provides a systematic methodology of CBA for similar projects. The case
study in Baicheng also has referential value for other medium-or-small-sized cities
during the same process.
Beskrivning
Ämne/nyckelord
electric bus , public transport operation , cost-benefit analysis , net present value , risk assessment , sensitivity analysis