§ MARTIN ENGELSEN FREDRIK HELLICHIUS DEPARTMENT OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMICS DIVISION OF SUPPLY & OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Gothenburg, Sweden 2025 www.chalmers.se ANALYZING THE DISTURBANCES IN A MANUFACTURING COMPANY Analyzing the change in disturbances for the Order to Delivery process from pre-pandemic until present year. Master’s thesis in Quality & Operations Management MARTIN ENGELSEN FREDRIK HELLICHIUS Optimizing the Order to Delivery Process in Manufacturing: Identifying Disturbances and Optimizing Flow MARTIN ENGELSEN FREDRIK HELLICHIUS Department of Technology Management and Economics Division of Supply & Operations Management CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Gothenburg, Sweden 2025 An analysis on the OTD Process at an established manufacturing company. Focusing on the identifying key contributors to an unstable OTD process. MARTIN ENGELSEN FREDRIK HELLICHIUS © MARTIN ENGELSEN, 2025 © FREDRIK HELLICHIUS, 2025 Department of Technology Management and Economics Chalmers University of Technology SE-412 96 Gothenburg Sweden Telephone + 46 (0)31-772 1000 Gothenburg, Sweden 2025 Optimizing the Order to Delivery Process in Manufacturing: Identifying Disturbances and Optimizing Flow. M. ENGELSEN F. HELLICHIUS Department of Technology Management and Economics Chalmers University of Technology SUMMARY The Order to Delivery (OTD) process plays a critical role in manufacturing, directly impacting lead times, production efficiency, and customer satisfaction. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the studied company, an established manufacturer, has struggled to restore pre pandemic OTD performance levels. The number of products deviating from the Standard Activity Process (SAP) has more than doubled since 2019, primarily due to an increase in post- production adjustments, reworks, and component shortages. This thesis aims to identify the most frequent and impactful disturbances within the OTD process by analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data collected from internal databases and interviews with key stakeholders. Structured around the three main OTD phases: Order, Industrial, and Market. The study applies a data-driven case study approach supported by theoretical frameworks including Lean Manufacturing and Six Sigma’s DMAIC methodology. The thesis does not seek to determine root causes but instead maps and quantifies the disturbances that consistently challenge OTD stability. Additionally, it visualizes what an “optimal flow” could look like if the process operated without disruptions. The findings provide the company with clear guidance on where to focus future improvement efforts to enhance responsiveness, reduce non-value-adding activities, and approach ideal performance standards. Keywords: OTD Process, Manufacturing, LEAN, Order process, Industrial Process, Delivery Process, Optimal flow, Production disturbances, Quality Management, Operational Management 1 Acknowledgement This master’s thesis was conducted during the spring of 2025 at the Department of Technology Management and Economics, as part of the Master’s Programme in Quality and Operations Management at Chalmers University of Technology. First and foremost, we would like to express my deepest gratitude to our supervisor at Chalmers, Dan Anderson, for his invaluable guidance, support, and encouragement throughout this thesis. His constructive feedback, broad knowledge, and thoughtful reflections have been important in shaping the research and improving the overall quality of this work. Thank you for always challenging our thinking and for your continuous support during this journey. We would also like to extend our sincere thanks to our supervisors at the company, whose insights and openness made this thesis possible. We truly appreciate the trust placed in us, the collaborative spirit, and the willingness to involve us in the company’s operations and discussions. Your practical perspective and support have contributed significantly to the depth of this research. Additionally, we want to thank all the employees at the company who took the time to participate in interviews, share their knowledge, and provide valuable input. Your contributions were essential, and we are genuinely thankful for the warm welcome and interest shown in our work. Lastly, we would like to acknowledge our thesis opponents for their constructive feedback and engagement. Your comments and critical perspectives have helped refine and strengthen the thesis. Thank you for your valuable time and insights. 2 Table Of Contents: Acknowledgement .................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 6 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Problem description ......................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Purpose .................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Clarification of key concepts .......................................................................................................... 8 1.5 Delimitations ..................................................................................................................................... 10 2. Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Research design and approach ................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Integration of Six Sigma DMAIC approach ............................................................................. 13 2.3 Literature review ............................................................................................................................. 15 2.4 Data collection ................................................................................................................................... 16 2.4.1 Internal database quantitative data collection ............................................................ 16 2.4.2 Qualitative data collection ................................................................................................... 17 2.5 Data analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 18 2.5.1 Quantitative analysis .............................................................................................................. 18 2.5.2 Statistical Validity Using Chi-Squared & Cramér’s V test: ........................................ 18 2.5.3 Qualitative analysis ................................................................................................................. 20 2.6 Reliability ............................................................................................................................................ 21 2.7 Validity ................................................................................................................................................. 21 2.8 Ethical Considerations ................................................................................................................... 22 3. Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................................... 24 3.1 Order to Delivery Process ............................................................................................................. 24 3.2 Theoretical Perspectives on OTD Optimization ............................................................ 25 3.2.1 Existing Research on OTD Challenges and Post-Production Adjustments ....... 25 3.2.2 Optimal flow visualization ................................................................................................... 25 3.2.3 Identified KPI’s for a responsive stable OTD-Process ............................................... 26 3.2.4 Optimal flow visualization within production processes ........................................ 30 3.3 OTD Research within other companies ................................................................................... 32 3.4 Theoretical Tools & Frameworks .............................................................................................. 35 3.4.1 Lean Manufacturing & Waste Reduction ........................................................................ 35 3.4.2 Six Sigma Methodology ......................................................................................................... 36 3.4.3 The Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule) ................................................................................... 37 3.4.4 The 4 Dimensions of Operations ....................................................................................... 38 3 3.4.5 The Bullwhip Effect ................................................................................................................. 39 4. Current State Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 41 4.1 Company background .................................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Evaluating the Strategic Position Across Four Dimensions ............................................ 41 4.3 Factory Context and Production Setup .................................................................................... 43 4.4 OTD process explanation .............................................................................................................. 44 4.4.1 Order phase .................................................................................................................................... 45 4.4.2 Industrial phase ............................................................................................................................ 47 4.4.2.1 Inhouse manufacturing phase ........................................................................................ 47 4.4.2.2 Production phase ................................................................................................................. 47 4.4.2.3 Delivery phase ....................................................................................................................... 49 4.4.3 Market phase .................................................................................................................................. 50 5. Results from qualitative findings and data analysis ............................................................. 51 5.1 Qualitative OTD process findings .............................................................................................. 51 5.1.1 Order phase: Supplier strategies and the effects of global instability ........ 51 5.1.2 The industrial phase: Production related challenges and improvements 52 5.1.3 Production and Logistics Flow- and supplier related challenges effects on production ............................................................................................................................................. 55 5.1.4 Culture ......................................................................................................................................... 56 5.1.5 Conclusions and takeaways for data analysis .............................................................. 57 5.2 Performance Insights from Data Analysis of the OTD Process ...................................... 57 5.2.1 Empirical findings from system data ............................................................................... 58 5.2.1 Overview of late deliveries when deviations exist ..................................................... 59 5.2.3 Delivery phase data graphs ................................................................................................. 63 5.2.4 Production phase data graphs ............................................................................................ 65 5.2.5 Correlations between production disturbances and late deliveries ................... 68 5.2.6 Statistical Significance for Multiple Variables .............................................................. 70 5.3 Open Point Data Analysis .............................................................................................................. 71 5.4 KPI summary for both factories. ......................................................................................... 74 6. Optimal Flow Analysis: Expected level & prioritizing factors ........................................... 77 6.1 Analysis of high-Level Disturbances in the OTD Process ................................................. 77 6.2 Prioritizing factors for Optimal flow within OTD Process ............................................... 80 7. Discussion .............................................................................................................................................. 83 7.1 Organizational & Operational Differences ............................................................................. 83 7.2 The importance of sticking to the production plan for reaching an optimal flow .. 83 7.4 Signs of Stabilization and Process Improvement in 2024. ............................................... 84 7.3 Correlation between key production disturbances and literature review. ............... 84 4 7.5 A Closer Look at Staff Turnover ................................................................................................. 87 7.6 Quality of data ................................................................................................................................... 88 7.7 Bullwhip Effect: Chain Reactions of Disruptions ................................................................. 89 8. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 91 Attachments ................................................................................................................................................... 93 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 95 5 6 1. Introduction This chapter introduces the background and problem descriptions with current challenges of the OTD process. Also it presents the purpose of the study: to identify the most common disturbances in each phase and illustrate what the optimal flow could look like. 1.1 Background During the COVID -19 pandemic the company, like all manufacturing companies in the industry, experienced major disruptions. Global supply chain bottlenecks and semiconductor shortages led to severe delays in sourcing critical components for the production. To handle the disruptions, the company implemented temporary solutions. However, this often led to post-production adjustments, reworking the products by replacing components, updating software or installing missing parts. This led to the significant consequence of a prolonged increase in the total lead time for the Order to Delivery process (OTD). Despite a return to more stable conditions in 2024, the system has not fully recovered, and lead times remain elevated. This suggests that underlying inefficiencies persist beyond the initial pandemic impact. 1.2 Problem description The OTD process today is unstable. The company tracks Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that measure how many items deviate from the Standard Activity Process (SAP). Any instance where additional resources are required to complete a product is categorized as "not following the Standard Activity Process." This issue has become increasingly frequent in recent years. To illustrate the scale of the problem, in 2019, 25% of items did not follow the SAP, but by 2024, this number had risen to 55%. These deviations require post-assembly adjustments, such as manual reworks, additional quality inspections and modifications to the finished product. These adjustments are 7 leading to non-value-adding activities that significantly increase costs, time, and resource consumption for the company. The growing need for adjustments suggests underlying inefficiencies in the OTD process that prevent a return to pre-pandemic (2019) performance levels. It has even gone to the extent that sometimes the items are delivered to the customer with a missing part that is not crucial for the function of the product or that implies any safety concerns, but it is however something that has decreased the quality aspect of their process. Given this shift, stakeholders are interested in investigating whether this cultural transition has become a contributing factor to inefficiencies in the OTD process. Understanding how pandemic-era work habits continue to influence production could provide valuable insights into post-production adjustments and help shape strategies for process improvement. Another key challenge is that the company wants to make more data-driven decisions and use that approach to problem-solving. While managers have hypotheses about why the deviations are increasing, these insights are largely based on experience rather than factual data. They recognize the importance of making decisions based on evidence rather than intuition, yet the company’s current approach can be described as "firefighting"-reactively addressing issues rather than eliminating their root causes. As a result, problems that were thought to be resolved in the past have resurfaced, indicating that previous solutions were not effective in the long term. The increasing frequency of deviations suggests underlying inefficiencies within the OTD process. Without identifying and addressing these deviations, the company risks further instability, increased operational costs, and decreased product quality. 1.3 Purpose As the company seeks to return to pre-pandemic production stability, there is a need to understand why post-production adjustments have increased and what factors are driving these inefficiencies. The purpose is to find the most common disturbances for each phase of the OTD process. Additionally, the purpose is also to show what the 8 optimal flow can look like for the OTD Process if everything was perfect. By combining data analysis and literature research the hope is to provide the stakeholders with recommendations on what areas to focus on when improving the process. In order to return to pre-pandemic stability, it seems necessary to first identify what key factors are continuously causing disturbances to the different phases of the OTD process. As per request of the stakeholders, they also want to know what the optimal flow would look like and that is done by identifying the excepted level of performance. The following research questions will be investigated: • What are the key factors continuously causing disturbances in the OTD Process? • What can the optimal flow look like in the OTD process? 1.4 Clarification of key concepts To ensure a clear understanding of the key concepts within the research questions, they will be defined below. The OTD process is essentially three phases: Order, Industrial and Market. In terms of what makes a disturbance a key factor is based on several criteria. One of them is the frequency of the disturbance, how often, when, where etcetera. Secondly, the volume of the disturbances. Because of the wide variety of problems that exist some sort of prioritization has to be done and therefore volume is an important consideration. Thirdly, the magnitude of the disturbance, meaning how critical is this issue. Furthermore, clarifying “optimal flow” in the OTD Process. The optimal flow is defined as, if everything worked perfectly, no material flow, production, quality issues could happen, what would the flow look like? An extended clarification of the optimal flow and the OTD process is stated in Current State Analysis. Performance in the OTD process can be measured using multiple parameters, depending on different operational priorities. To clarify what defines as expected performance in this study, a list of the most relevant parameters and Key Performance Indicators (KPI) is listed below. Also, other key concepts are listed below that are used in this thesis. Number of adjustments: The number of adjustments refers to the number of corrections and modifications of the products after it has passed the standard production process. 9 In the adjustment phase, reparation and replacement of different parts that can be missing from the assembly line is corrected, to meet the required quality standards and customer requirements. The adjustment phase is a non-standard assembly process, and a high number of adjustments indicates inefficiencies in the production process. Number of missing parts: This describes the number of occurrences when a product is missing one or more components. The consequences of having high number of missing parts can be extra logistics costs, customer dissatisfaction and extra rework at the adjustment phase. However, missing parts may not always impact the safety or functionality of the product, it depends on the criticality of the part. Production efficiency: Production efficiency evaluates how effectively the different lines and stations operate. A key metric for this indicator is the First Time Through (FTT). FTT measures the percentage of all the products that pass through the specific line or station without requiring any rework or adjustment. A high number of FTT point to a high-quality production process. Open points: Open points refer to all types of irregularities in the production process that is not resolved before the end of production line, hence the word “open”. Some of the open points needs to go through the adjustment process to be repaired before being cleared as ended of the production phase. Different kinds of open points can be missing parts, wrongly assembled or not assembled parts. The open points data also shows on what type of product the fault is concerning, problem owner of the fault and reporting area. Remark: a Remark is comment of an issue that has happened in the production line and is solved in the production line. For example, if a screw is loose and an operator finds it, he reports it as a remark and tighten the screw. If he would not tighten the screw, it would be an open point. Problem owner: A problem owner is the station, person, line or place where a problem has occurred. It is the problem owner’s responsibility to see through that the root cause of the fault will be found and solved. Planned production start (PPS)/actual production start (APS): PPS is the date when the vehicle is planned to start in the production phase. APS is the actual date. Often the two 10 are the same date and time, however, it can be some issues that delay the start of the production process. Planned production end (PPE)/Actual production end (APE): PPE and APE is the planned versus actual production end. Just like PPS and APS, PPE and APE can be delayed due to issues in the process. Planned delivery date (PDD)/Confirmed delivery date (CDD)/ Actual delivery date (ADD): PPD is the date the customer receives when he orders the vehicle, and CDD is the confirmed date, when the product is ended in the industrial phase and is on the transport to the customer. ADD, however, is the actual date the product arrives to the customer. Campaign: Campaign is when a fault on the product, usually from the production phase, is found on a large number of products and needs to be adjusted, either internal if the products are located in the factory still, or external if it has reached the customer. 1.5 Delimitations The thesis will not include connected processes outside Order to Delivery process. The thesis will only include the main assembly plants in Europe and the corresponding supply chain. Meaning the thesis will only investigate two factories which are referred to as factory 1 and factory 2. Due to company restrictions the limitation of confidential data and other relevant information regarding the company will be restricted. When presenting relevant data and information regarding the OTD process, an unknown factor X will be added to the data to hide the actual data. Some of the internal data from the company was difficult to find due to the complexity of being a large international company and relevant data cannot be presented to the authors due to limited access to the internal databases. The issue of having two different factories to analyze within the OTD process makes location a limitation factor, since one of the factories is in another country and travel restrictions at the company make the investigation of the certain factory more difficult. Since the OTD process involves two factories, a limitation of different kinds of databases of the 11 two factories to find relevant data, together with language difficulties make it difficult to find relevant data. Additionally, because the OTD -process is so comprehensive and due to time constraints of the project, the market phase will not be investigated as well as the inhouse manufacturing part of the Industrial phase. 12 2. Methodology The study will utilize a data-driven approach, incorporating historical production data, process mapping, and available research literature and stakeholder interviews to identify disturbances. By pinpointing the primary inefficiencies, this research aims to provide actionable insights that can help optimize production flow, minimize non- value-adding activities, and improve overall OTD efficiency at the company. 2.1 Research design and approach This study investigates the Order to Delivery (OTD) process at the company through a structured research approach with both theoretical and empirical data. A mixed method approach is used by applying both quantitative and qualitative data. The study also follows a case study approach, described by Yin (2009). The case study approach is particularly suitable for examining existing processes within their real-world context and when the topic of the thesis is complex and broad (Yin, 2009), in this case the real- world context is the objective from the company’s OTD process. The research moreover touches on a deductive approach, meaning that it studied beforehand in established theories within quality and operations management to test different hypotheses with the data collected (Yin, 2009). The deductive approach is mainly used when looking at the optimal flow. However, the study was mainly based on an inductive approach through the qualitative analysis of interview responses, as empirical responses emerging patterns and themes. This allows for both exploratory and explanatory insights and with case studies as a method it can integrate multiple sources of evidence (Yin, 2009). An illustration of the research design is shown in figure 1 below. A combination of deductive and inductive approaches furthermore allows both hypothesis testing and theory and makes the research findings more robust (Bell & Bryman, 2019). 13 Figure 1:A tree structure of the Master thesis project 2.2 Integration of Six Sigma DMAIC approach To analyze and improve the OTD process, this study uses the Six Sigma DMAIC approach (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control). The DMAIC approach ensures that inefficiencies are identified, measured and addressed in an evidence-based way (Pyzdek & Keller, 2014). While DMAIC wasn’t followed in full as a formal research model in the thesis, it was a helpful guide in practical project work that was conducted during the study. The framework helped structure the thinking, planning and identifying data, but not all steps were applied in a strict or detailed way in the thesis itself. The most focus for the thesis lies on the Define, Measure (Data collection) and Analyze phase (Data analyze), but the Improve and Control phases are only addressed, as the study is more exploratory and analytical. Some examples of when using the DMAIC framework are that the scope of the problem was defined with Six Sigma tools such as SIPOC and focused on bottlenecks in the production and logistic phase of the OTD process. 14 Figure 2 DMAIC STRUCTURE 15 2.3 Literature review A literature study was conducted to establish a theoretical foundation for the study within the optimal flow of the OTD process. The literature review should be focused and relevant, and aligned with the research questions (Bell & Bryman, 2019). The purpose of doing a literature review is to contextualize with existing knowledge of literature within the subject (Bell & Bryman, 2019), in this case, the OTD process. According to Machi and McEvoy (2016) there are several key points regarding finding sources. The first one is what type of sources to use. This study uses mostly primary and secondary sources, such as academic journals, industry reports and relevant other books and texts that were researched to find the most relevant data of the subject. The next step is to evaluate the sources by looking at the author, is the author credible, and is the source up to date. As outlined by Machi and McEvoy (2016), perhaps the most relevant key point when looking at the sources is the relevance. Does the source directly relate to the topic the thesis is about or not. Furthermore, to find relevant sources, academic portals such as Google Scholar and Chalmers Library were the main literature collection portals for this study. Some literature was also found with the help of the supervisor at Chalmers and other relevant researchers at Chalmers. The sources was books, industry reports, doctoral thesis and peer-reviewed journal articles. Relevant literature of competitors OTD process was particularly difficult to find due to many of the companies’ processes are classified. However, some were found although some of the articles wasn’t a clear competitor. To find the right sources, the criteria were that the articles should be from the year 2000 and forward to ensure relevance and aligning with current technologies and methods. But as some Theoretical frameworks were described in earlier papers, some articles may be from before the year 2000 as well. Also, the authors should have relevant knowledge about the subject, so a search of mostly professors and doctorands in the fields of subject was looked at. Some of the articles where from Sweden due to the authors of this paper is Swedish, hence easier to find Swedish articles, but the majority of the articles where English. Another thing was that the articles needed to be unlocked for reading, therefore there were plenty of articles that were removed from the filter because they weren’t accessible. Relevant search words in the academic portals were 16 OTD process, Optimal flow, Production flexibility, supply chain flexibility, Six Sigma methodology, Just in time, 4V, sourcing, Lean manufacturing, Pareto principle, Bullwhip effect, production process, Manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, Production Bottlenecks, Quality Assurance, automotive, Delivery process, covid-19, Methodology. As a lot of articles pop up when searching for only one of the search words, a combination of the search words where applied. A literature is not only a summary but more a form of argument, and it can demonstrate how existing literature informs and justifies the study (Bell & Bryman, 2019). 2.4 Data collection The data collection presents how the data was collected within the company, both for the quantitative and qualitative data. The subchapter further presents what types of internal data are used and what types of interviews with stakeholders were conducted. 2.4.1 Internal database quantitative data collection Quantitative data was gathered from the company internal database, based on historical OTD performance, production and logistics data. Several different databases were used to retain the relevant data. By investigating and analyzing differences in the OTD process before and after the Covid -19 pandemic, the data gathered were extensive. The time frame of the data spans from the year 2018 to 2025. The type of data gathered was the number of open points within assembly in the factory 1, where the data could be sorted out in different stations of the assembly, and what type of fault the open point was about. This data was from 2021 until 2024 and are from a system called Tool A. A large number of data similar to the open points was also gathered from factory 2. This data was not as detailed, but the data spanned from 2018 until 2024. There was an internal database program referred to as Tool B that was interesting to the thesis due to it had information about the product from order phase and reached to delivery phase, the entire OTD process was managed in Tool B. When an order was started it also started in Tool B and followed the product when it entered specific phases in the process. In Tool B showed when the product was planned to start, and actual start, and actual end. People working in the phases could also delay the product in the program and change dates of when estimated delivery should happen. This data was one of the most important ones due to the fact that you could see where and for how long it had been delayed in the process. In Tool B the data from all products produced could be 17 seen, what time the products had entered and finished a phase and also what the planned time was. So, in that database you could find in which phase the product was delayed, and how many products that were delayed. The data also showed if the products had entered the adjustment phase, and if it had missing parts, needed workshop or had a campaign. However, it didn’t have much detailed information, only on a high level. Other data collected was data from a source where all the people from the factories, both blue collar and white collar, had been resigned, either voluntarily or not. Other data looked at was from relevant Power-Bi sources within the company’s internal portal. All data collected was extensive, and also due to company restrictions it needed to be multiplied with an unknown factor to present it in the thesis. 2.4.2 Qualitative data collection Semi structured interviews were held with key stakeholders at the company, who worked or were involved in the OTD process at the company. This approach allowed for both consistency within interviews and flexibility to explore in more depth, depending on the stakeholder’s experience (Bell & Bryman, 2019). The plan for the interviews was to investigate every phase of the OTD process. To do that at least one person from each phase of the OTD process was interviewed. For every phase of the OTD process, relevant questions were asked related to the stakeholder’s area of expertise. But all the interviews were held to find qualitative insights into challenges, inefficiencies and optimization efforts for the OTD process within the company. There were different types of roles the stakeholders had, such as Production leaders, Data scientists, Operators, Quality engineers, forecast managers, Regional Managers, team leaders, logistic engineers and Product Managers. The total number of interviews held was seven, and the duration of the interviews was approximately 40-120 minutes, depending on the complexity of the role and the interview. The interview protocol was designed similarly for each interview, and had the same core theme, such as views on process disruptions, bottlenecks and flow optimization. But the questions were also tailored around the stakeholders area, so all relevant information should be gathered for each phase. According to Bell & Bryman (2019), semi structured interviews are particularly suitable when the aim is to understand the stakeholders perspectives while also comparing the answers. In addition to the interviews, other relevant qualitative data was also gathered at informal discussions and internal meetings with relevant 18 company representatives. Regarding the information about the company, such as background, factory comparison, the company OTD process, it is from interviews, regular meetings, emails and discussions with relevant people within the organization. The stakeholders remain anonymous throughout the thesis, due to company restrictions and agreements. 2.5 Data analysis The data analysis presents both quantitative and qualitative data analysis for the thesis, how the analysis is conducted, and furthermore how the statistical validity is analyzed. 2.5.1 Quantitative analysis The use of quantitative data allows to analyze the relationships, patterns and variations of the data over time (Bell & Bryman, 2019). The data from internal databases were analyzed with statistical and data visualization technique programs such as Excel and Power Bi. The data was then presented in PowerPoint. The data involved relevant information about the different phases in the OTD process, mostly from the production, logistics and adjustment phase. Data such as type of remark, problem owner, open points, type of product, missing parts, delivery dates and reporting owner, over a period from 2019 to 2024 was investigated and analyzed to see trends over time and in performance. Other tools such as different matrixes were also used. To determine which types of supply chain flexibility are most critical for OTD performance, we applied a structured pairwise comparison method inspired by the Pugh Matrix. Drawing from the flexibility dimensions proposed by Merschmann & Thonemann (2011), each factor was systematically compared against every other factor. For each comparison, the factor perceived to contribute more significantly to delivery performance was marked as preferred. The total number of “wins” per factor was then tallied, providing a ranked list of flexibility dimensions. The five factors with the highest comparative advantage were selected for further analysis. 2.5.2 Statistical Validity Using Chi-Squared & Cramér’s V test: To evaluate if there was any statistical significance between different categories related to the OTD process, both a Chi-squared test and a Cramér’s V test were performed. More specifically the categories compared were the following: • Missing Parts 19 • Adjustments • Workshop • Campaign To keep consistency, one category was kept constant, namely adjustments. There were several reasons for that. Adjustments are the most relevant to the research questions, but also a very frequent occurrence in the OTD process. The chi-squared test determines whether the observed distribution of values, differs significantly from what would be expected if the variables were independent. (Greenwood & Nikulin, 1996). Also given the large sample size the test is appropriate. The chi-squared test was calculated by using the following equations: Equation 1 Formula for chi-squared test 𝑋𝑐 2 = ∑ (𝑂𝑖 − 𝐸𝑖)2 𝐸𝑖 𝑐 = 𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑜𝑜𝑚 𝑂 = 𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒(𝑠) 𝐸 = 𝐸𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒(𝑠) Equation 2 Expected value formula 𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝐸𝑟,𝑐 = 𝑛(𝑟) ⋅ 𝑐(𝑟) 𝑛 𝑟 = 𝑟𝑜𝑤 𝑖𝑛 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐 = 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛 = 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 20 After this process was completed, the Cramer’s V test was performed. Equation 3 Cramer’s formula 𝐶𝑟𝑎𝑚é𝑟′𝑠 𝑉 = √ 𝑋𝑐 2 𝑛(𝑘 − 1) 𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑋𝑐 2 = 𝐶ℎ𝑖-𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑛 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑘 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 (𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑠, 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛) According to Cramér, (1999), Cramér’s V gives you the strength association between two chosen variables: • 0.1 or less is considered weak association. • 0.3-0.5 is considered moderate association. • 0.5 or more is considered strong association. 2.5.3 Qualitative analysis The qualitative data gathered from interviews was analyzed using thematic analysis. This method is suitable to find recurring themes and to identify patterns or themes to structure the qualitative insights (Bell & Bryman, 2019). This approach helps researchers to structure and analyze data by organizing insights into recurring categories, and enhances the validity, clarity and the depth of the findings according to Bell & Bryman (2019). A thematic analysis was chosen due to the effectiveness and flexibility of capturing detailed and relevant information from the stakeholders interviewed from the different phases of the OTD process. The data collected from the literature review of the optimal flow within the OTD process was then evaluated and compared in a Pugh Matrix. Stuart Pugh developed the Pugh matrix, a tool used to evaluate and compare the performance of multiple options or alternatives (Quigley, 2023). A Pugh matrix consists of a table with rows representing different alternatives and columns representing evaluation criteria or performance characteristics. Each cell in the table contains a rating or score that reflects the relative performance of the option being evaluated on the corresponding criterion. The ratings can be based on objective data or subjective judgment. Once all of the 21 options have been rated, the scores are summed up and the option with the highest total score is identified as the preferred option. The Pugh matrix can be used to compare multiple options in a structured, systematic and to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each option. It is often used in conjunction with other tools and techniques, such as brainstorming and prototyping, to support the decision-making process (Quigley, 2023). 2.6 Reliability There are some things that need to take into consideration, Reliability and Validity. Reliability is an important consideration in research and refers to how reliable the process is and how consistent and repeatable the research findings are (Björklund & Paulsson,2003). There are three main aspects of reliability according to Bell & Bryman (2019), those are stability, internal reliability and consistency. Stability is when the measure is stable over time. The next aspect is internal reliability, if the items correlate with each other, and the last is consistency, when there are more than one observer in observations of the data, do the observers agree (Bell & Bryman, 2019). To ensure a high level of reliability, the study had mixed model methods, through quantitative and qualitative research designs. For the qualitative part, the interviews were semi structured with core questions similar to each other for each stakeholder interview. The responses were transcribed and analyzed manually using a common structure to minimize biases. For the quantitative data a standardized database queries were used to find relevant information and relationships in the data sources. Some filtering criteria such as time frames were applied and used in the data base, that reduced the risk of variation in the data handling. Using consistent data extraction techniques and documenting them clearly enhances the reliability (Björklund & Paulsson, 2003). 2.7 Validity Validity refers to the research accurately measures and captures what it is intended to be measured and how the findings reflect on other phenomenon being studied (Pyzdek, 22 2003). There are different kinds of validity according to Bell & Bryman (2019), and the thesis analyzes measurement validity by establishing the study with theories from relevant literature, and internal validity by looking at the relationship between variables (Bell & Bryman, 2019). A literature review was conducted to ensure that the frameworks were aligned with the existing knowledge. By defining key concepts based on academic sources, the study ensured that it targeted the right elements it aimed to examine. For internal validity, one thing to consider was how the qualitative data from interviews were collected and handled. Because a possible threat to validity in interviews is the response biases from the stakeholders, where they say desirable answers for them or respond in a way that only align within company expectations. To reduce this, the anonymity of the stakeholders was applied, and confidentiality was assured to all participants interviewed. Another thing was that neutral and not leading questions were asked to the stakeholders to minimize bias. To further strengthen the validity, a cross verification was made between the interviews and literature. The selection of who to interview also supported validity. The stakeholders were particularly chosen to cover and represent the major phases of the OTD process, such as Order, Industrial and Delivery phase. This approach of finding and interviewing multiple stakeholders from different phases ensured that multiple perspectives were included, and that ensured that the study captured the full complexity of the company’s OTD process. 2.8 Ethical Considerations Several ethical considerations were considered for the thesis. One concern is confidential data, how confidential and sensitive data is presented, by not exposing too much of the company data, and how it is handled. This was of great importance for the thesis and the company, and no exposing of sensitive information was shown. There was a balance of how much of the data that was presented in the thesis, and due to the confidentiality, all numbers are hidden or multiplied by an unknown number. Anonymity was assured to all stakeholders interviewed and personal identifiers were removed during transcription. As this is a Master thesis, the work of the thesis is 23 concluded solely by the authors, and not by AI. However, since AI is a good assistance for translating and find other words, help has been gained by AI. 24 3. Theoretical Framework This chapter will cover the theoretical framework that will act as the research foundation for the thesis project by highlighting and explaining key concepts, theories and frameworks that help with analyzing the problem. 3.1 Order to Delivery Process This chapter will explore the various stages of the Order to Delivery (OTD). It will investigate existing research as this involves using different models, established theories and methodologies to define these stages and highlight their significance. Additionally, it will examine The company’s perspective on the OTD process, identifying the key steps the company considers essential and how its approach differs from established research. The order to delivery process is an important aspect in a lot of manufacturing companies, particularly in this industry. The goal of the theoretical framework is to establish reference framework to continue analyzing causes for postproduction adjustments. Why are certain products getting all these additional reworks after being finished on the production line. This thesis integrate concepts like lean manufacturing, Six Sigma Black Belt theories and other important analysis tools. According to Viswanadham (2000), Krajewski and Ritzman (2005), and Jonsson and Mattson (2016), the OTD process for a product can be divided into the following key stages: 1. Order Processing & Scheduling, which refers to the process of a customer placing an order and the subsequent scheduling of production. 2. Finishing of ordered goods, which involves assembling and producing according to specifications. 3. Internal transportation of goods. 4. Distribution and transportation. 5. Billing. 25 3.2 Theoretical Perspectives on OTD Optimization This subchapter presents the existing research of the OTD process base on literature, and a visualization based on different categories of factors that are connected to the OTD process. 3.2.1 Existing Research on OTD Challenges and Post-Production Adjustments Several studies have examined inefficiencies in OTD processes. For instance, Narasimhan (2018) highlights the impact of delays and inefficiencies on production quality through Makigami Analysis. Industry reports emphasize that post-production adjustments often stem from process synchronization gaps between design, supply chain, and assembly operations. Alternative sources discussing process synchronization and OTD variability include Smith & Brown (2018) and Johnson (2020). Additionally, empirical studies on Lean and Six Sigma applications reinforce the argument that structured defect prevention is more cost-effective than corrective actions (Pyzdek & Keller, 2014). 3.2.2 Optimal flow visualization Today, most companies want to have a flexible and quickly responsive supply chain. But having a flexible supply chain is expensive (Merschmann & Thonemann, 2011). Therefore, the right balance between the supply chains flexibility and the supply chains uncertainty needs to be reached to find the optimal flow for the company and OTD process (Merschmann & Thonemann, 2011). Supplier relationships also play an important role in the manufacturing industry, and their corresponding production efficiency. Lim et. Al (2014) mentions that a close and robust relationship between suppliers and manufacturers is of great importance when a change in customer order occurs. According to Liker and Choi (2004), they suggest six steps to have and maintain a good relationship with the suppliers after analyzing American automotive companies: • Understand supplier’s practices • Lead suppliers to compete against each other • Directly supervise suppliers • Enlarge suppliers’ technology 26 • Send information to selected suppliers • Improve practices with suppliers. By following these steps the automotive companies can be more robust against quick changes, both from the customer but also from the market perspective, when a large fluctuation in the market happens (Liker and Choi, 2004). 3.2.3 Identified KPI’s for a responsive stable OTD-Process To find the optimal flow for the company’s OTD process, the optimal flow factors were outlined based on Merschmann & Thonemann (2011) and Rokicki, T., & Szebérenyi, A. (2024). The following factors within the supply chain flow are presented in Table 1 below and explained further below the table: Table 1: Optimal flow categories and corresponding factors Categories Various types of factors Production Process complexity: Impact of pre process output on post process performance Impact of pre process changes on post process output Delivery Delays Increased Operational Costs Extent of on time delivery Product variation Frequency of redesigns of products Number of items changed per redesign Sourcing complexity Frequency of delays for critical material The quality of critical material Frequency of changes for critical material 27 Product complexity: degree of modularization Demand variation Predictability of demand patterns Extent of sharing demand forecasts with suppliers/customers Order process variation Frequency of order content changes by customers Frequency of short- term Adjustments Customer- oriented flexibility Improvement of responsiveness to changing market needs Improvement of level of customer service Improvement of delivery reliability Internal flexibility Level of customization Ability to adjust internal production capacity Prolonged Lead Times Supply chain flexibility Adjustment of worldwide delivery capacity/ capability Supply Market Scope 28 Production Process complexity: This factor is evaluating how connected the production process is across stages. If the production process has a high complexity, any change within one stage can have major impact on the following stages in the production process. Delivery delays and high operational costs often come from poorly synchronized production stages. Product variation Product variation shows how frequently a product undergoes design changes and modifications. The more changes of the product, product variation requires a more flexible supply chain and the supply system and corresponding production needs to be highly adaptable to changes. Sourcing complexity This factor measures the complexity of sourcing, how to handle critical material. The OTD process is very dependent on external suppliers and how they need to deliver at the right quality and quantity. The uncertainties within sourcing need to be in control to reach an optimal flow, as companies with high sourcing complexity are mor vulnerable. Product complexity: A simple product requires less handling of material. More standardization of product, and a higher degree of modularization is more optimal both for the supply chain but also for the production due to faster assembly and easier quality controls. Demand variation A good relationship between the company and the customer is of great importance. The more flexible the company is in sharing the demand forecasts for the customers and suppliers, the more flexibility the supplier can have, and the company becomes more 29 trustworthy, enabling better alignment across the value chain. This transparent communication helps all parties to be prepared for fluctuations. Order process variation The frequency of order changes at the last minute can have a large impact on the production and the corresponding supply chain within the company. It is therefore important to have a good relationship with the customer. Furthermore, to have a good knowledge of the market and how fast a market can fluctuate. Customer-oriented flexibility This is connected to order process variation. How to deal with a changing market demand, and how to handle customer service and how to improve the reliability of the delivery process. A high responsiveness means being able to change priorities and adjust delivery times without impacting on the quality of the product. Internal flexibility Internal flexibility is how flexible production can be. The more customization, the more variants and material within the factory. This is connected to product development lead time, the more customization the more time in product development. Internal flexibility can also measure how fast and by how much the factory can adjust its capacity. Supply chain flexibility Due to changing markets and worldwide problems, a flexible supply chain is of great importance for the company. To have the right basis within the supply chain, and a robust network is important when more and more worldwide problems arise and occur these days. Having diversified and local suppliers and a flexible logistic capability can enhance the supply chain flexibility when changing market and worldwide problems occur. 30 3.2.4 Optimal flow visualization within production processes For the production phase, there are two stages where you can divide disturbances within the optimal flow. There are input disturbances that occur before or outside the production process but can disturb the flow. Input disturbances often originate from suppliers or the upstream supply chain. There are also process disturbances, what is happening inside the production facility itself and disturbing the flow. Process disturbances are often related to machinery, material handling or internal processes. According to Golinska et. Al (2011) the most important disturbance for production is stated below: Input disturbances: Non-standard delivery lead times: Variations in supplier delivery times can lead to material shortages. If material is delivered earlier or later it disrupts the production planning and can lead to production stops and pushing delivery dates forward. Poor quality of supplied components: Defective parts require rework or replacement, causing delays, as the product needs to have increased inspection time, adjustment time and waiting time, and can cause customer dissatisfaction if not handled in time. Lack of needed components: Inventory shortages disrupt the production flow and can occur when there is supplier failure, inaccurate forecasting and transport issues. When the material isn’t in the right place at the right time it can lead to the production line stopping. Invalid Bill of Materials (BOM): As BOM can act as the instruction of the assembly process, and can lead to assembly errors and delays when the BOM is Outdated or incorrect. Delays can be caused by assembling the wrong part as the BOM is not updated, and can cause confusion on the assembly line. Extra work in adjustment phase needs to be done (Golinska et. Al, 2011) Process disturbances: 31 Machine breakdowns: Equipment failures halt production lines due to lack of maintenance, overload of capacity, old machines. This creates bottlenecks in the OTD flow and disrupts production planning and may lead to overtime work. Non-standard material requirements: Customers requires sometimes special requests of customizations that require special handling in production as it can complicate scheduling and resource allocation, and also disturb regular production line. When adding more material, and special variants of something you never or almost never built before, it introduces more room for errors in the production. Non-standard supply lead times: Unpredictable and unsynchronized internal flow within production can create longer lead times, leading to uncertainties in downstream processes. Poor quality in processes: Internal defects such as assembly faults, incorrect installations or no quality inspections, can lead to increased rework, impacting throughput as it increasing lead dime and delivery reliability (Golinska et. Al, 2011). Key Contributions to Digitalization: Dranov et. Al (2024) discusses the possibility of digitalization of manufacturing systems. According to the article, to achieve the optimal flow of a manufacturing process, three contributions can be made. The three contributions within digitalization are listed below: Digital Integration: The toolchain combines design, planning, and production stages through digital means, facilitating seamless transitions and reducing manual interventions. Enhanced Flexibility: By leveraging digital tools, manufacturers can quickly adjust to new product designs or changes in production volume, addressing the need for customization and responsiveness. 32 Improved Efficiency: The integration of digital processes leads to better resource management, minimizing waste and optimizing production schedules. This approach aligns with Industry 4.0 principles, emphasizing the importance of digitalization in modern manufacturing environments. Another factor in reaching optimal flow within the OTD process is to look at the different markets and see if there is a need to adapt to different markets. Brabazon & MacCarthy (2017) discusses market specific OTD configurations and emphasizes that different markets have unique customer expectations regarding product customization and delivery times. According to the study manufacturers should adapt their OTD process to align more with the specific market requirements. The study also stated that manufacturers need to decide whether to concentrate on upstream factors (such as order processing and production planning) or downstream factors (like logistics and distribution) based on the characteristics of each market (Brabazon & MacCarthy 2017). They mention that a European market might prioritize flexibility and customization, which suits better with upstream factors to focus on. While an emerging market with fewer options and longer transport distances may need a robust distribution network, meaning they need to focus on downstream factors. 3.3 OTD Research within other companies As part of this thesis, research will be conducted to analyze how competitors approach the OTD process and what differentiates their methods. According to Staeblein, T & Aoki, K. (2015) the OTD process for two companies, one German and one Japanese company showcased that in the order, planning and scheduling phase were quite similar. However, the biggest difference was in the production, manufacturing, and product variety. Moreover, Staebliein & Aoki (2015) also analyzed different customer requirements based on geographical markets like the European and American. They concluded that the European customers had no problem waiting several weeks or even months for their product if they were able to customize their order to their specific needs, whereas 33 the US customers generally wanted their order within two weeks. This highlights the need for a different OTD process since the European market is more based on Order-to- Make whereas the US tends to be more Make-to-stock. Because of the short amount of time the American customers expect to receive their product the ability to provide highly customizable options diminishes. However, for the European market where the customers do not have the same expectations on the short lead time. the ability to offer customizable experiences is higher. The downside by offering highly customizable products is that it increases the complexity of the production which in the current case could be one of the reasons for the number of faults occurring in production. In the order phase, the company’s customers have the chance to change, remove or hold the order specification up to six weeks before planned production start (PPS). A freeze point three weeks before PPS is also added, after that point there can be no changes of the specification, and the build order are sent to the factories. The customers have some flexibility if they want to change their specifications. A comparison can be made with another large product manufacturer, Toyota. According to Tomino et. Al (2009), Toyota allows the customers to change up to 10 percent of the original specification. This system enables Toyota to manage customization demands efficiently without disturbing their Just in Time production system (Tomino et. Al, 2009). Renault follows a relatively similar approach, as they limit the extent to which customers can change their specifications within a certain timeframe before production (Brabazon & MacCarthy, 2017). Leading automakers have invested in better risk monitoring and early warning systems. For example, Toyota took lessons from the earthquake in 2011 that impacted Japan. By mapping out their suppliers and creating a system that flags suppliers or parts that were most vulnerable in the early stages of a crisis Matsuo, H. (2015). One significant practice identified in strong manufacturer-supplier relationships is collaboration when problems occur. Toyota, for instance, approaches supplier challenges as joint issues rather than isolated supplier failures. According to Bonini (2015), the president of the Toyota Production System Support Center, Toyota’s supplier relationships emphasize trust and collaboration rather than penalties: 34 “Our supplier partners open the door for us and say, ‘Look, we know you’re not going to penalize us for some mistake we made, and you’re here to help, you’re part of the team (.’” Shih, W. C. 2022) This statement shows Toyota’s commitment and strategy of building long-term supplier relationships which are founded on trust and openness, where issues are openly communicated rather than concealed out of fear. Such an approach enables continuous improvement and aligns closely with Lean principles, particularly in terms of transparency, collaboration, and problem-solving. This type of supplier to manufacturer collaboration highlights key attributes for an optimized OTD process, emphasizing proactive problem-solving and collaboration between organizations, which can be leveraged to address similar supplier challenges within other manufacturing contexts. 35 3.4 Theoretical Tools & Frameworks This subsection aims to introduce the different frameworks and methods used in the thesis. It also aims to explain the different frameworks used and how they are relevant for the thesis. 3.4.1 Lean Manufacturing & Waste Reduction The Toyota Production System (TPS) emphasizes eliminating inefficiencies through principles such as Jidoka, Just-in-Time scheduling, and Kaizen Liker, J. (2021). Jidoka ensures that defects are detected in early production stages rather than post- production, which is not exactly what the company is currently doing. If a product requires adjustment it is fixed after the product has gone through the production line which again is very different to one of the key principles of TPS “Building quality into the process” rather than fixing defect later. Furthermore, stopping the production forces the action of finding the root cause because stopping production is very expensive which could be a useful lens for the company to look through and to analyze why defects are allowed to continue through production without stopping or correcting the mistakes. Just-in-Time (JIT) scheduling minimizes inventory and lead time but increases the need for accurate defect Halim, A. H., & Ohta, H. (1994). In the case of the company this makes their planning even more crucial and sensitive to changes or delays of critical materials or deliveries from suppliers. Within the context of the Order-to-Delivery (OTD) process, this means that each production activity, from parts procurement to final assembly, should ideally be triggered by actual customer demand rather than forecasts or batch scheduling. The JIT principle is effective when things are working as planned but leaves very little room for disturbances, especially in a large complex OTD process. For example, sensitivity to planning and disruptions. JIT requires near perfect coordination across the entire supply chain. Even minor disruptions such as delayed shipment of critical parts can halt the production line. In the case of the company such issues often require post production adjustments. 36 Because of the sensitivity in JIT, it also requires strong forecasts and high accuracy. The JIT wants to reduce inventory and to avoid buffers or backlog in inventory this puts pressure on the sales, order, forecast teams. The JIT lacks traditional safety stock usage which again highlights the pressure of accurate forecasts and planning. As explained, the room for error is so small in a JIT system having adjustments after production is finished goes fundamentally against the JIT system’s foundations. When JIT is implemented in an effective manner it also highlights the flaws and gaps quite clearly which is crucial for continuous improvement, a cornerstone of both lean manufacturing and Six Sigma methodology. This visibility helps with identifying problems quick. Kaizen, which focuses on continuous improvement, helps reduce recurring post- production adjustments. Lean manufacturing highlights that post-production rework is a non-value-adding activity and should be prevented rather than corrected at the end of the process. 3.4.2 Six Sigma Methodology Six Sigma refers to a business philosophy. It is an improvement methodology and performance metric. The Six Sigma business philosophy is an initiative that enables world-class quality and continuous improvement to achieve the highest level of customer satisfaction. The Six Sigma methodology utilizes data and statistical tools within a phased approach to improve process performance. The Six Sigma metric establishes a solid performance level that helps align an organization’s strategic goals and values to its customers’ needs and expectations. Sigma is a measure of the variability of a process with respect to specification limits. In the case of the thesis, this is a great way of measuring variation and variability in the OTD- process. Six Sigma, particularly the DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) methodology, provides a structured approach to identifying and reducing process variability (Pyzdek & Keller, 2014). For the define phase. The SIPOC framework 37 (Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs, Customers) is a high-level process mapping tool that is especially helpful at the early stages of a project. It helps to capture the key elements of a business process in a structured way and clarify scope, stakeholders, and deliverables. After a high level tools has been used it is easier to map out the process using a more traditional Value Stream Mapping (VSM) tool or any process mapping using flow charts is very common to map out the process more visually rather than stating everything in a table like its done in SIPOC. Moreover, the Six Sigma methodologies are a great way of following and structuring projects. Sticking to the principles of defining the problem in a clear way without jumping to conclusions too early or even considering results is important when following the DMAIC structure. This will be important for overall structure of the thesis and help the endeavour or finding key disturbances in the OTD process while additionally, contributing to finding the optimal flow, because the optimal flow is related to a process with little to almost no disturbances. Additional Six Sigma methodologies are process mapping or Value Stream Mapping (VSM), excellent tools to map out the process and apply the limitations of the project. This way a clear way of mapping inputs and outputs is easier to finish. Combining tools like SIPOC and Process mapping is a great way to start and understand the project’s boundaries and the goal. 3.4.3 The Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule) The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule, is a widely used concept in quality and operations management that suggests a large proportion of outcomes often result from a small proportion of causes. In manufacturing contexts, it is common to find that around 80% of problems stem from 20% of root causes (George, 2002). This heuristic is not a strict statistical rule, but it provides valuable lens for prioritizing improvement efforts where they will have the greatest effect. In Lean and Six Sigma methodologies, Pareto analysis is commonly used to identify the “vital few” issues that contribute most significantly to defects, delays, or inefficiencies 38 (Brassard & Ritter, 2010). By focusing on these key drivers, organizations can optimize their use of resources and achieve meaningful results faster. In this thesis, which aims to improve the Order to Delivery (OTD) process by identifying the reasons for post-production adjustments, the Pareto Principle will be applied to categorize and analyze these issues. The goal is to determine whether a limited number of recurring problems are responsible for the majority of adjustments. If so, targeted interventions-such as adjustments in planning, supplier communication, or quality checks-can be prioritized to reduce rework and increase overall process efficiency. 3.4.4 The 4 Dimensions of Operations The 4V Model, originally developed within service operations, is a conceptual framework used to describe the key characteristics of an operation. While it was first applied to services, authors (Slack et al., 2004) extended its applications, as it is increasingly relevant for manufacturing as well, especially in complex industries such as automotive. The model identifies four dimensions: Volume, Variety, Variation, and Visibility, influence how operations are designed and managed. 1. Volume refers to the quantity or scale of production. In manufacturing, high volume typically allows for standardized processes, automation, and lower unit costs. However, it also requires significant coordination and efficiency to avoid disruptions. 2. Variety describes the range of different products or configurations offered. In the manufacturing industry, this includes different models, subproduct types, trim levels, and customization options. High variety increases complexity in both planning and production. 3. Variation in demand captures how much and how often customer demand changes. For manufacturing, this could mean seasonal fluctuations, sales campaigns, or last-minute order changes, each of which affects scheduling and resource allocation. 39 4. Visibility reflects how much of the production process is experienced or monitored by the customer. While less visible than in services, manufacturing customers may still track order progress, expect transparency, or react to delays, making visibility a factor in perceived quality and satisfaction. The 4V Model helps organizations understand the operational challenges tied to their specific context (Slack et al., 2004). In this thesis, the model is used to evaluate how characteristics like product variety or demand variation impact production flow and the need for post-production adjustments, particularly in relation to the order-to-delivery process. 3.4.5 The Bullwhip Effect The Bullwhip Effect refers to the phenomenon where small fluctuations in customer demand cause increasingly larger variations in the supply chain. This effect is particularly relevant in complex supply chains. Large OEM’s or any company for that matter, when trying to secure their own operations and deliveries to the customers has a significant consequence further down the supply chain. As demand information travels upstream, from dealerships to manufacturers to suppliers, sub suppliers, each party of the supply chain tries to secure their own operations. Leading to overreactions in orders from suppliers, or sub suppliers and the “whip” is started. This results to issues like excess inventory, less efficient capacity utilization which puts pressure on the other parties that together create the supply chain your company is dependent on. (Paik & Bagchi, 2007). In the case of the thesis this shows that the bullwhip effect is important when analyzing how inaccurate forecasting, demand uncertainty and long lead times can contribute to instability in the OTD process and how much securing your own operations can cause a multitude of problems in the future and for other organizations that collaborate. Understanding these dynamics helps highlight the importance of better information sharing and how factors like inventory planning, safety stocks, and batch size can improve. An unstable supply chain like the world has seen over the last 5-7 years with 40 the pandemic, Suez canal crisis, semi-conductor shortage showcases the effect of the “whip” and can be illustrated as in Figure 3 below. Figure 3 The bullwhip effect, illustrating the variation in demands consequences in the supply chain, F. Broek: Supply Chain Junction 41 4. Current State Analysis This chapter aims to give a brief background to the company, its strategic focus and its core operations. The goal is to clearly explain the OTD process so the reader understands what the OTD process is, its different phases and what each phase entails and is collected from the interviews. Furthermore, the goal is also to explain how the OTD process today is different than before the pandemic struck the world. 4.1 Company background The company is committed to driving sustainable innovation in the transportation and industrial sectors. The company operates manufacturing facilities worldwide, implementing advanced production methods aligned with Lean manufacturing principles and Industry 4.0. The Company Production System ensures continuous improvement, quality assurance, and operational efficiency. Automation, robotics, and digital transformation play a key role in optimizing production processes, enhancing sustainability, and reducing waste. With its strong heritage, commitment to innovation, and focus on sustainability, the Company continues to shape the future within its area. 4.2 Evaluating the Strategic Position Across Four Dimensions The framework used is called “The 4V’s” and is explained under the Theoretical Framework but the point is to visualize an overview of four important metrics in business operations. The analysis shows the difference between where the company was prior to the pandemic compared to today. The evaluation is based on the information from the interviews but also from the data given. The key points are the following: • Variety has increased • Volume has increased • Variation in demand has changed quite a lot. • Visibility, almost the same. 42 What’s most interesting is that variety has increased while at the same time the volume has increased. 2023 was a record-breaking year in the volume produced and the numbers are shown in Table 3 & Table 4. Pushing high volumes while increasing the variety of customization of products is tricky, generally and what lean theories says is that it is a larger variation of products leads to a larger variation of problems (George, 2002). The variety has increased also because of the demand from the customers, the company are well equipped to take on such challenges, but it is highly difficult to do when running at almost full production capacity as they did 2022 and 2023. The variation in demand has increased, which is not surprising given the geopolitical instability and global disruptions that have occurred since approximately 2017, which also contributed to the difficulty in predicting the demand which in return makes it more difficult to plan production and supplier material requests. As for the visibility, this metric has changed the least out of the four factors. The company does not bring the customer through the process more than they did earlier. They are, however, a little bit better since they have increased their adaptability and ability to change and customize their products more so in that sense it has increased. However, the visibility is considered medium to low. For example, something regarded as high visibility would be someone like a private chef that takes the customer through the entire process of their creations, this company does not do that. 43 Figure 4 Pre pandemic vs today comparison by using the 4 dimensions of operations performance 4.3 Factory Context and Production Setup Since the company is global and divided into different divisions, a limitation of which factories to further analyze was conducted. The two factories chosen are sister factories, where they have production of complete products and belonging supply chain. The factories cooperate in several fields including supporting divisions such as quality and logistics. Factory 1 have one production line where they produce products to many markets, and have many variants and different models produced at the same production line. In factory 1 they also have production of knocked down products. They produce a part of the product and then “knock it down”, pack the part and ship it to another factory overseas. This Knocked down process is a part of in-house manufacturing, and the company has several factories around the world that can produce these products. Factory 1 has several projects of products running through the line and produces several different categories of products that each represent different technological at the same factory line. Factory 2 is the larger factory by produced products, since it has two production lines. One of the lines only produces standard 44 products, and the other line produces different variants and models, including a mixture of the categories of products. Since factory 2 has two lines including the faster standard line, it produces two thirds of the total production for the two factories, and factory 1 one third. While the factories are very similar to each other, there are some factors that differ. For example, the cultural differences in the factories. The factories are located in different countries, where they have other laws and rules within production. In factory 1 a major work within ergonomics in production has taken place during the last five years. For factory 2 ergonomics is not a major factor, so the operators in the production can stand at the same part of the line for a longer period, when in factory 1 there is more rotation of operators. 4.4 OTD process explanation This chapter provides an overview of the company’s OTD process and examines how it compares to theoretical best practices found in the literature. The purpose is to establish a clear understanding of how the process is structured in practice and where deviations from existing frameworks occur. To achieve this, the OTD process will be described and defined, highlighting key characteristics that shape its execution. Additionally, this chapter supports answering the research questions by providing a clear definition of the OTD process, which serves as a foundation for analyzing its different phases and identifying potential disturbances but also provides a foundation for later discussions on the implementation of LEAN principles and the identification of non-value-adding activities. The current OTD process is on a high-level three phases: 1. Order 2. Industrial 3. Market Where industrial can be divided into sublevels of Inhouse manufacturing, production and delivery phase. The production phase can also be divided into sublevels, as Figure 5 shows. 45 Figure 5: The OTD process breakdown, each phase and its subphases 4.4.1 Order phase The order phase begins with a program of demand and supply planning process cycle. In the program cycle inputs from all sales markets are collected and looked at with a bottom-up demand, how many products the different market needs per month. The sales areas take the temperature on the different markets and collect as much information as possible so the forecast will be reliable and relatively correct. However, due to different circumstances in the world such as pandemics, wars, inflation, political elections, tolls etcetera, the cycles can change from month to month. After the planning program is finished, it is sent out to the factories so they can inspect and approve it. The factories look at their time and staff schedule to see if they can meet the requirements of the planning program. The planning program is also sent to the suppliers, so the suppliers know how much the company will buy from them. In the file the suppliers see a proposal for a 12-month timeline. For the nearest time it is more exact in the planning day to day with a full order book, but the more months ahead the more high-level planning and forecasting. 46 Since the covid-19 pandemic it has been an increase in number of changes of the planning program due to the global disruptions. In 2023 it was a volume record in number of products built, and that was an increased need after the pandemic and all the other crisis in the world. But then the suppliers had difficulty meeting the demand. The company historically had at least 2 different suppliers per article, but after the covid-19 pandemic it is now more common to have 1 supplier per article due to costs. But the supply chain is more sensitive and unsecure now. Within 3 days of the first program realse the factories, suppliers and purchasing have approved the program plan and then the order planners select which products will be built at the certain factories. After that, the upper management team needs to approve the plan and have the chance to make a priority if they feel that some markets are more important than others. It is rare, but it can happen that the management can change the plan. Since factory 1 produces all products in one line, factory 2 has two lines, different models and variants go to the different factories. The order-planners look at what types of products are ordered and plan, so each factory has the most optimal flow. In total, factory 1 produces approximately one third of the total products and factory 2 produces two thirds. There is a freeze point about 3 to 6 weeks before production, until then the customers can change the specification of the order. This flexibility allows the customers to change and adapt to their needs. After the freeze point a building frequence are handed out, so the right articles are to the right product in the production phase. After the order phase is completed, the industrial process is initiated and that is the largest phase and the most complicated one because of the advanced production but also because there are so many different flows that can impact production. 47 4.4.2 Industrial phase The industrial phase is divided into three main phases, the Inhouse manufacturing phase, production phase and delivery phase. Industrial phase is the largest phase for the OTD process and therefore the most complex. The subphases are explained in the following subchapters. 4.4.2.1 Inhouse manufacturing phase Inhouse manufacturing is a part of the industrial process and includes manufacturing process the company performs within the company that is a sub-production. Within in-house manufacturing there are production processes such as engine manufacturing, gearbox manufacturing, cab manufacturing etcetera. These processes are produced in other factories around the world and then shipped to the complete product manufacturing plant. The factories have a close connection to each other and need to cooperate in the planning, so the right parts arrive in the right order for the correct products. 4.4.2.2 Production phase Under production there are the following subprocesses: Assembly. The largest phase and the most complex one. The assembly phase is the heart of the production and where several flows intertwine. For example, incoming material from hundreds of different suppliers. The assembly phase consists of several stations. First, you have the standard assembly line. Here, the product is built in a moving assembly line, and the parts are prepared for each product on the side of the lines, in so called kitting stations, where operators place out the right part for the right products. In order to make this work, instructions for each product and part are shown for the operators. Within the lines there are also quality stations, where educated operators do a quality check. If the operators find a fault, it is either fixed directly if possible or reported in the system to be fixed at the adjustment phase. When the product is at the end of the line, there is test stations where they check the durability, quality, dynamics, and emissions of the product. The last station is a final 48 evaluation of the product, to complete the assembly process. If everything is OK, then it can go to the next phase. If it is not, then the product is moved to the adjustment area. In the adjustment area, reparation of the product is done, both mechanical, electrical and paint repairs. The adjustment process is not calculated as a standard process. The assembly process is very complex and for the assemblers it can consist of heavy labor work that is both stressful and physically demanding. Additionally, the assemblers need to learn several combinations of the different products, since the company has many different variants of the products. Because this is such a crucial part of the organization a lot of focus and resources is put here. This is also where the real value is created, which is why it is paramount that the assembly process is seamless and has a continuous flow. However, that is easier said than done. The assembly process is where most errors occur due to the complexity of production but also because it is very dependent on so many other flows like incoming material but also because it is assembled by humans which inevitably causes errors. Workshop. This phase primarily focuses on customization requests from customers, such as paint jobs, as well as repairs for damages incurred during the assembly process. The workshop process is divided into two parts, internal and external workshops. The internal part of the workshop handles the standard customizations, while the external part of the workshop deals with the more special customizations and is then shipped to other companies outside the factory area. This is included in the OTD process and therefore a standard process. However, only a certain amount of time is prepared for this process, and if the external or internal workshop is delayed, the OTD process will be delayed. Audit. The Audit department do different kinds of tests on the products after the assembly to see if the products are customer ready. Different kinds of tests are performed, such as product audits, where a secret percentage of all products built should be checked, but also project audits and sample audits. In the audit department conformity of production is performed as well, where the auditors 49 make sure and make a verification that the products meet regulatory and quality standards within production. When an auditor finds a problem in an audit, the auditor informs the relevant department within the assembly and depending on the degree of severity a number of points is set, and then the affected department needs to deal with this problem together with the quality department. The Audit process is a standard process in the OTD process and therefore not relevant in finding nonstandard activities for this thesis. Factory Handover. This is when the production is completed, and the operators transfer the products from the production area to the distribution yard. When the product is parked it is the end of the factory handover and end of production phase. If a product is delayed, a correction is added to the production process, the customer will be informed on the delay and a new estimated time of arrival will be planned. When the factory handover is done the product is clear to enter the next phase of the OTD process. 4.4.2.3 Delivery phase Within the industrial part of the OTD process, delivery is the final step. Delivery is divided into two parts, Delivery stock and Transport. In delivery stock the products are often placed at the distribution yard, waiting for the transport to be ready. If the product stands at the distribution yard for more than six weeks, it needs to have an extra maintenance check and possible repair. In some cases, the products can enter the delivery yard without being Green OK (GOK), meaning the products are finished and ready to enter the next phase. If there are some material shortages, or other stops within production, the products can go through the line and it will then be repaired afterwards. An extra activity will then be planned, and the product might be delayed to the customers. The next step is the transport of products. It is the last step of industrial, and the products are transported to the market, either directly to the customer or through a dealer, depending on where the customer is located. 50 4.4.3 Market phase The market is the last step of the OTD process. Here, the dealers and market companies take action and receive the products, take contact with the customers, do a possible extra customer requests on the product and after that, hand them over to the customer. The Market phase is out of scope for this thesis and therefore will not be researched on more than to this point of view. 51 5. Results from qualitative findings and data analysis This chapter presents the key findings from both quantitative and qualitative and qualitative phases of the study. The chapter is divided into two main chapters, where the first part covers the qualitative findings from the interviews collected, and the second part covers the quantitative data findings from the tools investigated. The purpose of this chapter is to address the research questions: • What are the key factors continuously causing disturbances in the OTD Process? • What can the optimal flow look like in the OTD process? 5.1 Qualitative OTD process findings Initially, this part of the chapter presents the most important findings from the interviews with key stakeholders in the OTD process. The interviews provide valuable qualitative insights into the different phases which are further supported by the data analysis which includes data related to OTD process. The findings will be structured to first present the most important insight from interviews. The structure of the interview follows the OTD process (Order, Industrial, Market). Then followed by a detailed analysis linking the findings to the research questions. 5.1.1 Order phase: Supplier strategies and the effects of global instability To gain a clearer understanding of the order phase and its impact on various departments, an interview was conducted with a Forecasting Manager. The primary responsibility of the Forecasting Manager is to distribute the forecasted demand and create predictions for the expected production volume for the upcoming year. These 52 predictions are based on input from the sales department and historical data, which are then communicated to a wide range of suppliers who rely on these forecasts to adjust their production plans accordingly. The order phase is a critical component of the overall OTD process. This phase lays the foundation for production planning by determining the volume each factory needs to produce. As a result, it significantly influences the production speed that factories must maintain to meet production targets. According to the forecasting manager, the company’s strategy has been to focus on building long-term relationships with a select group of suppliers, rather than relying on a broad network. This approach aims to improve collaboration and reliability. Single sourcing offers the advantage of easier utilization of economies of scale (Gupta & Sharma, 2017). However, this strategy also makes the company more vulnerable to disruptions if a supplier fails to deliver. 5.2 Performance Insights from Data Analysis of the OTD Process supports this concern, showing that supplier-related disruptions have been a key issue over the past few years. Furthermore, the order phase includes ongoing supplier communication, where suppliers are informed about the estimated quantities of specific materials or parts needed. However, since suppliers only receive forecasts rather than confirmed orders, they may encounter difficulties meeting demand if there are sudden shifts in requirements or challenges in maintaining quality standards. 5.1.2 The industrial phase: Production related challenges and improvements To understand what contributing factors there could be for the increase in products needing post-production adjustments and not following the standard activity process, a Quality Manager was interviewed. 53 When asked about their thoughts on the rise of products deviating from the standard production process needing adjustments. The Quality Manager explained that there has been a high demand for products. Especially in 2023, which was a record breaking year for the company, which affected the factories by o