DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL AND MATERIAL SCIENCE DIVISION OF PRODUCTION SYSTEMS CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Gothenburg, Sweden 2022 www.chalmers.se Decarbonization of manufacturing at Volvo GTO Master’s thesis in Industrial Ecology ANDREAS SERINO OLANDER LUCAS ALBUQUERQUE WOLF Decarbonization of manufacturing at Volvo GTO ANDREAS SERINO OLANDER LUCAS ALBUQUERQUE WOLF Department of Industrial and Material Science Division of production systems CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Gothenburg, Sweden 2022 Decarbonization of manufacturing at Volvo GTO ANDREAS SERINO OLANDER LUCAS ALBUQUERQUE WOLF © ANDREAS SERINO OLANDER, 2022. © LUCAS ALBUQUERQUE WOLF, 2022. Department of Industrial and Material Science Chalmers University of Technology SE-412 96 Göteborg Sweden Telephone + 46 (0)31-772 1000 Cover: Trucks of Volvo Group Gothenburg, Sweden 2022 Decarbonization of manufacturing at Volvo GTO ANDREAS SERINO OLANDER LUCAS ALBUQUERQUE WOLF Department of Industrial and Material Science Chalmers University of Technology ABSTRACT Volvo Group Trucks Operations is the industrial entity within Volvo Group responsible for truck manufacturing with 40 facilities under management. The organization’s operations span across the globe contributing to carbon emissions and therefore, to climate change. Climate change has and will alter our surroundings by imposing climate patterns such as extreme weather events that put pressure on the survival of humans and our economic system. In response to this, there is an increased demand for a better commitment to environmental practices, including from companies such as Volvo Group. This study aims to contribute to lowering the environmental impact of Volvo GTO by providing a feasibility assessment for the implementation of distinct solutions of decarbonization strategies. For this, a literature review of current methods and practices that aim toward carbon reduction in manufacturing was performed. In addition, several interviews with Volvo GTO employees, as well as external experts, were conducted. Based on the data collected, a decarbonization framework was elaborated containing six strategic areas that are considered key in tackling carbon emissions: Fuel shift; structural change (electrification); carbon capture; process efficiency; technological replacement; and circularity. Each strategy includes multiple solutions that are assessed regarding their feasibility potential using a SWOT analysis. The study concludes that decarbonization at the facility level is achieved through multiple strategies and solutions that must be placed in the context of the local community to help the transition toward a more sustainable society. Keywords: Decarbonization, sustainability, automotive industry, manufacturing, renewable energy. Acknowledgments First, we would like to thank our supervisor Lena Moestam at Volvo Group Trucks Operations for giving us the possibility to perform this work by providing valuable information as well as contacts within the organization. Being involved with Volvo GTO has been a valuable experience that has helped us understand how a global company operates with sustainable development. We would also like to thank Mélanie Despeisse, our supervisor at Chalmers University of Technology, who has guided and supported our work. Lastly, we acknowledge the time invested by all the interviewees involved in this study, who have contributed with valuable insights to this work. We hope that this work will help Volvo GTO lower its carbon emissions and contribute to the company’s environmental performance. Lucas Albuquerque Wolf & Andreas Serino Olander, June 2022 Table of contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Aim and objectives ....................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Limitations ................................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Facilities Overview ....................................................................................................................... 4 2 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Literature study method ............................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Case study methodology ............................................................................................................ 10 2.3 Quality of research ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 SWOT analysis ............................................................................................................................ 12 2.5 Process for structuring the Interview questions ........................................................................ 12 3. Literature review ............................................................................................................................. 15 3.1 Decarbonization ......................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Review of frameworks ............................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Energy system solutions ............................................................................................................ 18 3.3.1 On-site/off-site renewable energy production ................................................................... 18 3.3.2 Biofuels ............................................................................................................................... 19 3.3.3 Hydrogen ............................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.4 Sector coupling ................................................................................................................... 21 3.3.5 District heating .................................................................................................................... 21 3.4 Manufacturing processes solutions ........................................................................................... 22 3.4.1 Assembly, welding, and stamping ....................................................................................... 23 3.4.2 Painting ............................................................................................................................... 24 3.4.3 Casting processes ................................................................................................................ 25 3.4.4 Building control systems ..................................................................................................... 27 3.5 Carbon capture .......................................................................................................................... 27 4. Results .............................................................................................................................................. 29 4.1 Framework ................................................................................................................................. 29 4.2 Framework relation to Volvo GTO strategies ............................................................................ 35 4.3 Manufacturing patterns in the automotive industry ................................................................. 35 4.4 Interviews .................................................................................................................................. 41 4.5 SWOT & Feasibility assessment ................................................................................................. 42 4.5.1 Fuel shift ............................................................................................................................. 43 4.5.2 Structural change (Electrification) ...................................................................................... 50 4.5.3 Carbon capture ................................................................................................................... 56 4.5.4 Process efficiency ................................................................................................................ 57 4.5.5 Technological replacement ................................................................................................. 59 4.5.6 Circularity ............................................................................................................................ 63 5. Discussion ........................................................................................................................................ 67 5.1 Interpretation of results ............................................................................................................. 67 5.2 Limitations ................................................................................................................................. 69 6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 71 References ........................................................................................................................................... 73 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................. I List of tables ........................................................................................................................................ I Table of figures ................................................................................................................................... I Summary of transcripts ...................................................................................................................... II List of abbreviations BEV (Battery electric vehicles) CCS (Carbon capture and storage) CCU (Carbon capture and utilization) CHP (Combined heat and power) CIF (Coreless induction furnace) CVA (Cabs and vehicles assembly) DAC (Direct air capture) GHG (Greenhouse gas) GTO (Group trucks operations) HTC bio-coke (Hydrothermal carbonized) HVO (Hydrogenated vegetable oils) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on climate change) LPG (Liquified petroleum gas) PV (Photovoltaic) NRV (New River Valley) RECS (Renewable energy certificates) SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) VOC (Volatile organic compound 0 1 1 Introduction This chapter provides background, aim, limitations, and information on the studied Volvo GTO (Group Trucks Operations) facilities. Moreover, it gives an overview of the subject matter and its relevance. 1.1 Background The following statement was announced by the United Nations Environment Program: “There is a fifty-fifty chance that global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the next two decades, and unless there are immediate, rapid, and largescale reductions in Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C by the end of the century will be beyond reach” (United Nations Environment Programme, 2021). Climate change has and will alter our surroundings by imposing climate patterns such as extreme weather events that put pressure on the survival of humans and our economic system. In response to this, many countries and unions around the world are increasingly demanding a better commitment to environmental practices. For instance, policies such as the European Green Deal provide a vision for the European Union's member states on how to help Europe transition into a climate-neutral continent. This policy stands for reducing carbon emissions and establishing a circular economy while enhancing the competitive capabilities on a global scale. Other plans that will help the EU transition to carbon neutrality are the Circular Economy Action Plan, the Strategy for Sustainable and Smart Mobility, and the Alternative Fuels Directive (D. Brown et al., 2021). Sweden is currently on track to meet its environmental targets. Moreover, its progress toward achieving carbon neutrality before 2045 is greater than expected and the cost of implementing fossil- free alternatives is decreasing at a fast rate. For the manufacturing sector, the change consists predominantly of a substantial decrease in production emissions and the procurement of low carbon- intensive materials. The overarching goal of the industry is to lower the emissions of the entire supply chain (The Swedish environmental protection agency, 2022). Regarding the companies within the Swedish industrial sector, Volvo Group is a large company that offers a broad variety of products stretching from trucks to financing and services. Volvo Group has activities on all continents with production in 19 countries and 190 markets. In addition to this, the company has a portfolio that encompasses brands such as Volvo, Volvo Penta, Rokbak, Renault trucks, Prevost, Novabus, Dongfeng trucks, and more. Figure 1 depicts Volvo Group‘s society commitment goals. It shows that the company includes several focus areas to contribute to a sustainable future, such as transitioning toward fossil-free transport solutions, reducing the environmental footprint, and a step change in circularity. 2 Figure 1. Volvo sustainability framework Volvo GTO is the industrial entity within Volvo Group responsible for truck manufacturing with 40 plants under management. This includes powertrain production, remanufacturing, cab and vehicle assembly, logistics services, and parts distribution. Volvo GTO’s strategy is stated as follows: “Our strategy shows our contribution to the society, to the Volvo Group’s strategic direction and priorities, and the part we play to shape the world we want to live in”. The strategic direction recognizes that there are certain challenges when dealing with climate and resources, more specifically reducing the CO2 emissions, and increasing circularity in their operations. There are several ways to approach the reduction of CO2 emissions. One of them is decarbonization. The term is used in various manners and can represent slightly different implications depending on the addressed topic. However, the most used term by organizations worldwide is the definition developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) which is the following: “Decarbonization is the process by which countries or other entities aim to achieve a low carbon economy, or by which individuals aim to reduce their consumption of carbon” (Doleski et al., 2022). Decarbonization is also a matter of remaining competitive in a rapidly changing market as is the case for the automotive industry (Giampieri et al., 2020). Volvo GTO has established environmental targets that stretch toward 2025 which include carbon emissions reduction of 30% while increasing the share of renewable energy usage by 75%. Therefore, it is of interest for both the company and the global community to determine the feasibility of decarbonization in the manufacturing operations at Volvo GTO. 3 1.2 Aim and objectives This study aims to contribute to lowering the environmental impact of Volvo GTO by providing a feasibility assessment for the implementation of distinct solutions of decarbonization strategies, elaborated under a developed framework. To support the aim, the following research questions should be answered: 1. What recurring decarbonization strategies and solutions are being considered for the industry according to the literature? This research question will help provide an overview of decarbonization strategies and solutions that are currently being considered and implemented across various industries. 2. How are these strategies applied and how can they be grouped in a new framework to make them applicable for Volvo GTO? This second research question will help understand how the decarbonization strategies are implemented and provide preconditions for creating a framework that can be applied to Volvo GTO. 3. What is the feasibility of the identified decarbonization solutions based on their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats? This research question will help determine the feasibility of the identified decarbonization solutions and deliver to what extent they can be implemented from a SWOT perspective. 1.3 Limitations The greatest opportunity for change within the GTO is found in the facilities that contribute to the largest emissions. Therefore, the study covers the facilities with the highest emission rates, starting with 1200 tons of CO2 emissions in 2021 as a baseline. This covers 13 plants across multiple countries. Moreover, this work approaches decarbonization from a carbon dioxide emissions perspective. Methane emissions, for instance, are generally considered part of the decarbonization strategy. In the case of Volvo GTO, emissions of this gas are minimal and have therefore been left out. Nevertheless, this study acknowledges that CO2 decarbonization strategies can also impact all sorts of GHG emissions. To enable Volvo GTO to use this study as a guidance tool for future decarbonization decisions, preference is given to the general feasibility of solutions, rather than specific technical and engineering considerations that are required to accommodate the implementations. This is because each solution deserves in-depth investigation on its own and the results of the study provide information based on the data collected within limited time scope. Most emissions in the lifetime of vehicles are Scope 3 emissions (indirect emissions that are outside the companies' direct control such as the CO2 footprint of purchased products). However, Scope 1 emissions (Direct emissions arising from company-owned/controlled sources) and Scope 2 emissions (Indirect emissions arising from heating, cooling, and purchased electricity) are the ones that Volvo has a direct impact on. A lot of investments are ongoing to reduce emissions in the use phase, but it is also important to look at what can be done to reduce Volvo GTO’s direct emissions. This means that 4 Scope 1 and 2 emissions are the most relevant ones to examine when it comes to Volvo GTO’s direct influence. These scopes include emissions from internal logistics but not the ones from outbound logistics. Lastly, is worth noting that certain decarbonization strategies can impact Scope 3 emissions, both positively and negatively. If a more efficient solution is implemented, for instance, it may create a need for specific materials that may have a larger footprint. These implications will not be accounted for. 1.4 Facilities Overview Table 1 gives an overview of how the different facilities can be categorized according to their functions and manufacturing operations. One can extrapolate a solution based on a specific facility to others that share the same activities. For instance, a solution identified for assembly in Curitiba could apply to assembly in Bourg En Bresse. Even if the regional differences are significant, some activities might not vary considerably across locations. Table 1. Broad classification of selected Volvo GTO facilities. Operation Manufacturing operations Location Cabs and Vehicles Assembly Assembly Wacol, Australia Lehigh Valley, USA Bourg En Bresse, France Assembly + Welding & painting Curitiba Brazil New River Valley, USA Stamping + Welding & painting Umeå, Sweden Powertrain Assembly Vénissieux, France Assembly + Machining Köping, Sweden St. Priest Axle, France Hagerstown, USA Curitiba Engine, Brazil Assembly + Machining + Foundry Skövde, Sweden Warehouse - Lyon, France Figure 2 brings the facilities into perspective when it comes to Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. Moreover, it also shows where these emissions arise from. One can see, for instance, that most of the Skövde facility’s emissions are attributed to coke combustion and that natural gas is a widely used fuel in most of the facilities. Multiple facilities offset their purchased electricity emissions. Therefore, electricity-related emissions do not appear in all locations. 5 Figure 2. Scope 1 and scope 2 emissions for selected facilities in 2021 Table 2 provides information about the facilities that are used as the study object in this project. They are listed in descending order of emissions. In the right column, a brief energy profile for each plant is also provided. This information helps to put the results in perspective. Table 2. Facilities overview and energy profiles Facility Energy profile Skövde – The Skövde engine factory is part of powertrain production in Sweden. With 2800 employees, engines are manufactured with a production capacity of 155 thousand engines per year. The main activities are assembly, machining, and foundry. The foundry process produces iron castings for cylinder heads, flywheels, cylinder blocks, and other engine components. District heating is used for heating and cooling while coke and Liquified petroleum gas (LPG) are used for production. Diesel is used both for internal logistics and product testing while biodiesel is used for product testing. The electricity is 100% renewable and has marginal CO2 emissions. 80% of it is used for production, 15% for heating and cooling purposes, 4% for product testing, and the rest is used in other internal processes. New River Valley (NRV) – This plant is in the state of Virginia, USA. It has 2975 employees and covers approximately 230 Ha. It is a CVA (Cabs and vehicle assembly) plant where Volvo trucks and multibrand cabs are produced. The main activities are assembly, welding and painting. Due to its energy efficiency improvements, it has earned the U.S. Department of Energy’s Superior Energy Performance Platinum certification. About 30% of the natural gas is used for heating and cooling while 70% is used for production. Diesel is mostly used for internal transport. LPG is used in heating and cooling and for some process purposes. When it comes to electricity, 100% of it is renewable. 76% of it is used for production, 22% for heating and cooling, and the rest is used for internal transport. 6 Curitiba – This plant is in Paraná, state of Brazil. It is a CVA plant that assembles Volvo trucks and cabs. In addition to assembly, welding and painting processes also take place there. With 1350 employees, the production capacity is about 30 thousand cabins, 30 thousand complete trucks, and 4000 bus chassis a year. Electricity and natural gas are used for production while diesel is used for product testing. The majority of LPG is used for internal transport and the rest is used for production, heating, and cooling. 89 % of the electricity is used for production, 6 % for product testing, 3% for internal transport, and 1 % for heating and cooling. Hagerstown – The Hagerstown facility is in the state of Maryland, USA. It is part of powertrain production where both engines and transmission equipment are produced. The main processes that take place are machining and assembly. 1300 employees work at the plant. Most of the natural gas is used for heating and cooling while a smaller amount is used for production. LPG is used for internal transport and diesel is used for product testing. 100% of the electricity is renewable. 45% of it is used for production, 42% for heating and cooling, 12 % for product testing, and the rest is used for internal transport. Köping – This plant is located in Sweden, and it is part of powertrain production. Transmission products such as gearboxes and marine drives are manufactured here by 1650 employees. The main processes are machining and assembly. At the Köping site, LPG is used for production and district heating is used for heating. Diesel is used for internal transport. Electricity is 100% renewable. 91% of it is used in production, 8% is used for heating and cooling and the rest is used for internal transport. Umeå – The Umeå factory is in Sweden and has approximately 1450 employees. It is part of CVA and it produces 75 thousand Volvo cabs per year. The main processes are stamping, welding, and painting. Approximately 54% of the district heating is used for heating and cooling while the remaining is used for production. LPG is used for production and HVO (Hydrogenated vegetable oil) is used for internal transport. Electricity is 100% renewable. 81% of it is used for production, 17% for heating and cooling, and the rest is used for internal transport. Lyon CDL warehouse – The Lyon CDL warehouse is positioned in France and supplies several facilities both outside and inside the GTO organization. At the warehouse, natural gas is used for cooling and heating and LPG is used for internal transport. All electricity is renewable. 80% of it is used for heating and cooling, 16% for processes and 4% is used for internal logistics. Lehigh Valley – The Lehigh Valley plant is located in the state of Pennsylvania, USA and has 2100 employees for assembly of Mack trucks and cabs. The facility covers 12 Ha. Due to its energy efficiency improvements, it has earned the U.S. Department of Energy’s Superior Energy Performance Platinum certification in the Mature Energy Pathway. At the Lehigh Valley site, natural gas is used for heating and cooling. Diesel is used for production and internal transport. LPG and Petrol are used for internal logistics. The electricity used is 100% renewable. 49% of it is used for heating and cooling, 44% for production and 6% is used for internal transport. 7 Wacol – The Wacol plant, in Australia, has 600 employees. It is part of CVA and assembles both trucks and cabs of multiple brands. Natural gas and diesel are used for production. Electricity is not renewable, and it is mostly used for processes and a smaller share is used for internal transport. Bourg En Bresse – The facility is in eastern France, northwest of Lyon in the province of Bresse. It is a CVA facility that assembles Renault trucks. With 1450 employees and an area of 129 Ha, the plant has a designed capacity of producing 31,400 trucks/year. Natural gas is used for heating and cooling, LPG is for internal logistics and diesel is used for engine testing. Electricity is 100% renewable. 50 % of it is used for heating and cooling, 43 % for production, 4 % for transport and 1% is used for product testing. St. Priest Axle – St. Priest axel is currently part of CVA. However, there are plans for categorizing it as powertrain due to the activities of machining & assembly. This plant produces axels. The building it operates in is old. 72 % of the natural gas is used for cooling and heating. Both LPG and diesel are used for production. The electricity used is all renewable and around 61% of it is used for heating and cooling, 36% is used for production and 3 % is used for internal transport. Curitiba Engine – Curitiba engine is part of Powertrain production and produces both engines and transmission equipment. Main processes that take place are machining and assembly. There are 350 employees working with cylinder block machining, engine, transmission assembly, gearbox installation and remanufacturing. Most of the electricity is used for production and a smaller share is used for product testing. Diesel is used for product testing and LPG is used for internal transport. 87% of electricity is used for production, 12% for product testing, and 1% is used for internal transport. 8 9 2 Methodology This study followed a case study approach in which selected scientific literature was reviewed and used as a reference point for interpreting the collected data. To answer the aim, three research questions were formulated as shown in Figure 3. Figure 3. Methodological approach To answer the first research question, a literature review was conducted so that solutions and practices contributing to decarbonization were identified. Moreover, an investigation was conducted to identify decarbonization practices within the automotive industry. This was done by reviewing other companies in the sector. Decarbonization contains a wide variety of solutions that can be applied in manufacturing operations. To structure these solutions and answer the second research question of this study, a framework was elaborated. For that purpose, eight frameworks identified in the literature that address decarbonization in multiple industries were studied and compared. This allowed for identification of recurring strategies and solutions and finally, the development of a new and automotive specific framework. This framework was then related to Volvo GTO’s sustainability strategies and analyzed in relation the various automotive companies. To answer the third research question, the main challenges, and opportunities that Volvo GTO faces in decarbonizing its manufacturing activities were identified. For this purpose, interviews were conducted with both Volvo employees and external experts using Zoom and Teams video calls. In addition, Volvo-specific data was collected from the company's online platform. The interviews contributed to the identification of new decarbonization solutions in addition to those found in the literature. The most recurring decarbonization solutions in the interviews and literature were prioritized and their feasibility was assessed by utilizing the SWOT analysis methodology. This contributed to formulate some recommendations for Volvo GTO. Finally, the results of the study were discussed, and a conclusion was presented with the aim of contributing to decrease the environmental impact of the Volvo GTO. 10 2.1 Literature study method The literature review was ongoing during all stages of the project. Most of the literature was sourced from ScienceDirect and Google scholar. In addition, reports from international organizations such as the IEA (International Energy Agency) were included in the study. Different keywords and searches were used to identify the most recent literature available. Some examples of keywords used in the literature study were: Fossil-free production; Automotive industry; Manufacturing decarbonization; Low carbon manufacturing; Carbon neutrality in the industry; Green manufacturing; Renewable energy; Sourcing of renewable energy; Energy efficient production; Automotive manufacturing; Foundry; Biogas; Bio-coke. Searches were combined, the following is an example of a search strategy that was used by combining different keywords: (Decarbonization OR carbon-neutral OR fossil-free) AND (manufacturing OR production) AND Industry. 2.2 Case study methodology A case study methodology is a useful tool for studying a contemporary real-world occurrence while considering its conceptual surroundings. It considers previous research theories while including data from separate and multiple points of view (Yin, 2018). The author lists several components that need to be considered when developing research methodology which are presented below: 1. Research questions: Formulate research questions that starts with words such as “Who”, “What”, “Why” and “Where”. Using these formulations strengthens the overall external validity of the study. 2. The proposition of the study: In addition to the formulated research question, a proposition or a formulation that guides the research in a certain direction is advised to be included. 3. The case at hand: There is a risk that the studied case becomes too broad. Therefore, generalized research questions and aims are to be avoided. Different types of boundaries (Temporal, Spatial and things that are not being considered) are important to establish to enable a more precise case. 4. Connecting the data to the proposition of the study: Choose a relevant tool for processing the data that is well in line with the proposition of the study. 5. Establishing criteria for evaluating the findings: Establishing a structure for handling findings that diverge and stand out from most of the findings. The research questions of this study were formulated following Yin’s (2018) approach. What Yin (2018) calls the proposition of the study was framed as the project’s aim. To define the case at hand, limitations were established to restrict the scope of the project. Finally, to connect the data to the study proposal and to evaluate the findings, a SWOT analysis was selected as the most suitable tool. 11 2.3 Quality of research According to Yin (2018), the quality of a conducted research can be tested by employing four distinct aspects. These are: Construct validity, internal validity, external validity, and reliability. Construct validity There are certain measures that can be employed to avoid subjectivity in a case study. For example, multiple sources of evidence help to strengthen the validity of the study Yin (2018). In the study, multiple literature sources were reviewed. For developing a framework that establishes an optimal pathway toward decarbonization at Volvo GTO, eight different frameworks were analyzed and documented in a table, which included direct observations of their content. Other sources employed were archival records from Volvo Group. Interviews play a major part in the methodology of a case study. More specifically interviews that have a conversation-based format with a red line that reflects the research data collection. In other words, open-ended interviews (Yin, 2018). For this study, semi-structured interviews were conducted, including some more generic questions giving space for open discussions. In this manner, aspects related to research questions could be answered while new insights could be brought up by the interviewees. When conducting the interviews, an effort was put to select the greatest number of interviewees ranging from different areas. A total number of 17 persons have been interviewed. Moreover, all the interviews were recorded and transcribed for inspection and review. Internal validity Thematic analysis is a way to structure qualitative data. This method can be broken down into four distinct steps according to Miller and Parsons (2020). First, understand and review the data and secondly group the data by theme. The third stage is to review the different themes and see which ones can be further aggregated. The last step is to understand how the themes are connected to each other (Miller & Parsons, 2020). When structuring the interview’s content, the first step was to review all the recorded interviews and manually transcribe the answers. At this stage, the following issues were identified: • Many interviewees had several responsibilities that were not limited to a single facility. • Several interviewees had knowledge that extended beyond their current employment titles. • Answers were often not facility specific. • Most of the environmental managers who were interviewed had connections to the GTO environmental community, which made their perspective more holistic. • Multiple emission challenges had the same problem source. Then, using the comment function in Microsoft Word, the themes were assigned to different transcribed sections. The selected themes were decided to be based on production and functional areas. This enabled the interviewee’s answers to be contextualized. Specific explanations of technological or technical functions were excluded for not being relevant to the aim of the study. Answers based on solutions and methods for CO2 reduction were prioritized. Lastly, different themes were brought together under the SWOT analysis. 12 External validity and reliability The quality of research can also be increased through external validity, which means that the logic behind it is replicable in other cases. In other words, the study’s findings should be generalizable beyond itself (Yin, 2018). To make the study more easily applicable to changing variables and thus useful in future scenarios, a framework was created that is collectively exhaustive for decarbonization solutions. According to Yin (2018), there are several ways to increase the reliability of the study. One way to do this is to keep track of the data collected. Notes taken during data collection should be systematized in way that makes them accessible to interested parties. In this study, a case study protocol was employed to categorize different findings and make them easily accessible in a table, thus creating a chain of evidence. For instance, a table was used to organize the interviewees, which made it easier to keep track of them. In addition, all interviews were saved and stored. 2.4 SWOT analysis SWOT is a well know and widely used decision making tool for analyzing business environments where it enables the identification of factors that influences companies' strategic capabilities. It can be regarded as a holistic tool due to its consideration of both external and internal factors. The internal factors are classified as strength (S) and weakness (W). On the other hand, the external factors i.e., factors with external origin attributed to the environment are classified as opportunities (O) and threats (T). One must care for some limitations regarding the use of the SWOT methodology. Certain factors can be more defined than others, unmotivated prioritization can occur and lastly, biases can influence the previous mentioned limitations. There are, however, certain measures that can be taken for improving the quality of the SWOT analysis such as incorporating probability and impact dimensions or incorporating the significance of each factor (Pickton & Wright, 1998). In the SWOT analysis performed in this study, the results were ultimately given a score to highlight their feasibility which translates into their significance as decarbonization solutions. The results ranged from not feasible to highly feasible. 2.5 Process for structuring the Interview questions For this project, the development of the interviews followed two different approaches. As previously mentioned, a semi-structured format was chosen as the primary interviewing method, which was used with Volvo employees. With industry experts, the interviews did not follow a structured format. However, they were all asked the following question: “Can you tell us about how decarbonization has been achieved in the industry, more specifically in the manufacturing/automotive manufacturing sector?”. This question gave the interviewed expert the possibility to emphasize what they thought was important and gave space for a more open discussion. Regarding the semi-structured interviews, the questionnaire was framed in five question areas: Introductory questions, Volvo specific questions, SWOT related questions, framework related questions and finishing questions. The questions were introduced firsthand at the interviews. To start, the introductory questions were selected to understand what role the interviewee had in the company and to get an insight in what projects the person had worked with and was currently working on. The 13 Volvo specific questions were developed with the reviewed emission data from several facilities in mind. With these questions, the goal was to give the interviewed person a possibility to frame the emission problem and explain what type of measures had been taken or was going to be taken to decarbonize the facilities. The SWOT based questions were developed with emphasis on the aim of the study and were used as a tool to conceptualize the different decarbonization measures in context both within and outside of the boundaries of Volvo GTO. Regarding the framework specific questions, they were prepared to assist and act as a way for examining a certain pathway if the interviewed person seemed to have specific knowledge. The finishing questions were used to conclude the interview. The last question was included to engage and give the interviewee an opportunity to include missing points. Table 3 summarizes all questions. Table 3. Questionnaire for Volvo employees. Volvo interviewees questionnaire Introductory questions 1 Could you please tell me about yourself, your role in the company and which manufacturing facilities do you work with? 2 Are you currently working on any sustainability related project toward decarbonization? 3 What are your thoughts on Volvo’s progress to decrease CO2 emissions? Volvo specific questions 4 What do you feel is the most important decarbonization issue to address at Volvo GTO? 5 Most of your CO2 emissions come from these sources [list emission sources collected from Volvo’s databank]. What are the processes contributing to them? 6 What measures is Volvo taking for decarbonizing manufacturing? What sort of actions are required to reach the targets? SWOT related questions 8 Within Volvo GTO’s industrial facilities that you work with, what do you think are the main challenges and opportunities to achieve the emissions targets in manufacturing? In other words, what internal aspects do you think put Volvo GTO ahead or behind toward achieving its goals? 9 Outside the company boundaries, many things are happening and evolving. We live in a well- connected world with complex interactions. Regarding these, what do you think are the main opportunities and what are the challenges for the facilities to decarbonize their manufacturing? Framework questions 11 You seem to know a lot about [replace by specific strategies from the newly developed framework]. Could you tell us a bit more about how that can translate to the goal of reducing carbon emissions? Finishing questions 13 Regarding your answers to the previous questions, what do you think are more urgent issues? 14 How do you think the manufacturing of electric vehicles will alter carbon emissions? Will it require changes in the manufacturing? If so, what changes? 15 Are there further issues you want to discuss that you feel we have missed? 14 15 3. Literature review In this section, firstly, the concept of decarbonization is contextualized. Following, a review about different decarbonization frameworks is presented and several solutions that can contribute to reducing carbon emissions are investigated. This includes energy system, manufacturing processes and carbon capture solutions. 3.1 Decarbonization Industrial GHG emissions have decreased more than almost any other sector since 1990 according to the IPCC database. Nevertheless, industry still accounted for almost one fifth of emissions in 2014. To stay in line within the 1.5°C target, the global industry market must decrease its carbon emissions within a range of 50% to 93% before reaching 2050 in comparison to the emission quota of 2010 (European Environment Agency, 2016). Today, decarbonization is a megatrend that has been progressively pushing its way onto the political agenda and that has been assumed to be “The largest transformation project of this century“ (Doleski et al., 2022). Electric solutions increase the energy demand in the supply chain. When compared to a conventional combustion engine, the manufacturing of an all-electric vehicle is more CO2 intensive. The reason for that is mainly the lithium-ion batteries, which require a lot of energy in their production process (Automotive World, 2020). Eliminating activities that generate emissions and minimizing resource demand are the most straightforward of the solutions to bring down emissions. However, there are other ways of doing so without changing the production volume. When talking about carbon reduction, multiple technologies are available or under development (Doleski et al., 2022). To recognize the dynamics of change and that these dynamics themselves will change as industry transformations and technological developments occur, developing a framework has been selected as the best way of framing the solutions further provided in this study. When talking about carbon reduction, multiple technologies are available or under development. To be able to recognize the dynamics of change and that these dynamics themselves will change as industry transformations and technological developments occur, developing a framework has been selected as the best way of framing the solutions further provided in this study. 3.2 Review of frameworks By proposing a framework applicable to Volvo GTO, this work attempts to become comprehensive and unfold from time to be applicable regardless of the type of technological development. Therefore, this study is shaped around strategy categories rather than technologies to be evaluated for feasibility. To elaborate an own framework that is applicable to the automotive industry, more specifically to Volvo GTO, a variety of existing frameworks available from the literature are collected and examined in Table 4. The Frameworks are retrieved from general industry studies or from more energy-intense industries. Thus, many examples from the heavy industry are represented including iron and steel, cement and clinker, chemicals, pulp, and paper industries have recured in the investigation. These industries are known to have large carbon emissions and therefore can provide valuable insights into decarbonization. A summary of each source investigated is given below, including the authors, title, type of study and industry investigated, the decarbonization strategies mentioned, and finally a brief explanation of why these sources and examples were considered. 16 Table 4. Overview of frameworks identified in the literature M in ist ry of th e en vi ro nm en t, 20 20 Sw ed en ’ s lo ng -t er m st ra te gy fo r re du ci ng gr ee nh ou se g as e m iss io ns Le d by t he S w ed ish m in ist ry o f th e en vi ro nm en t, th e pu rp os e of th e re po rt i s to e st ab lis h lo ng te rm st ra te gi es th at w ill co nt rib ut e to w ar d re ac hi ng t he Pa ris a gr ee m en t ta rg et s fo r th e Sw ed ish in du st ry . • Tr an sit io n fr om fo ss il ba se d ra w m at er ia ls an d en er gy to w ar d re ne w ab le s • Im pr ov ed pr oc es s an d m at er ia l e ffi ci en cy • El ec tr ifi ca tio n • In tr od uc e CC S te ch no lo gi es Th is fr am ew or k w as d ev el op ed by th e Sw ed ish g ov er nm en t a s a co un tr y sp ec ifi c st ra te gy . Ev en th ou gh V ol vo G TO h as a v as t in te rn at io na l o pe ra tio n ar ea , i t i s pr im ar ily a S w ed ish c om pa ny . I t is be lie ve d th at t o so m e ex te nt , th e co m pa ny re fle ct s v al ue s f ro m th e Sw ed ish so ci et y. Br ow n et a l., 2 01 2 Re du ci ng C O 2 em iss io ns f ro m h ea vy in du st ry : a re vi ew o f t ec hn ol og ie s a nd co ns id er at io ns fo r p ol ic y m ak er s Re se ar ch pr oj ec t pe rf or m ed at th e Im pe ria l Co lle ge of Lo nd on th at ex am in es ho w in du st ria l em iss io ns fr om th e he av ie r in du st ry ca n be re du ce d in O EC D co un tr ie s. • M ax im ize th e en er gy ef fic ie nc y po te nt ia l • Fu el s w itc hi ng to w ar d lo w c ar bo n en er gy • In cr ea sin g in ve st m en ts in CC S re se ar ch • Al te rin g w as te pr ot oc ol s an d pr od uc t d es ig n to a im to w ar d th e cl os in g of th e m at er ia l l oo p Th is fr am ew or k w as de ve lo pe d w ith fo cu s on O EC D co un tr ie s w hi ch co nt rib ut es t o a nu an ce d pe rs pe ct iv e w he n us ed in c on sid er at io n to w ar d th e st ud y of an in te rn at io na lly ba se d au to m ot iv e in du st ry . Ro ot zé n, 2 01 5 Pa th w ay s to d ee p de ca rb on iza tio n of c ar bo n - in te ns iv e in du st ry in t he Eu ro pe an U ni on Th is do ct or al th es is pe rf or m ed at Ch al m er s in ve st ig at es ho w th e Eu ro pe an s te el i nd us tr y ca n ac hi ev e de ep d ec ar bo ni za tio n. • Im pr ov ed e ne rg y ef fic ie nc y • Fu el sh ift • CC S • St ru ct ur al c ha ng e • N ew st ee lm ak in g pr oc es se s By b ei ng a fr am ew or k t ha t w as a pp lie d to a sp ec ifi c i nd us tr y, it g iv es g ui da nc e on h ow t o in te rp re t de ca rb on iza tio n fr am ew or ks ba se d on a sp ec ifi c in du st ry . Fi tz pa tr ic k & D oo le y, 2 01 7 Ho lis tic v ie w o f CO 2 re du ct io n po te nt ia l f ro m e ne rg y us e by a n in di vi du al p ro ce ss in g co m pa ny Te ch ni ca l a pp ro ac he s to r ed uc in g sc op e 1 CO 2 e m iss io ns fr om e ne rg y in th e pr oc es s in du st rie s. Th is st ud y ha s t he Ir ish d ai ry in du st ry a s a ca se st ud y. • En er gy ge ne ra tio n ap pr oa ch es t o re du ce C O 2 em iss io ns • Im pr ov in g en er gy e ffi ci en cy • Ca rb on c ap tu re a nd st or ag e • Cl ea ne r p ro du ct te ch no lo gy Th is fr am ew or k w as ap pl ie d to w ar d th e pr oc es s i nd us tr y w ith a ho lis tic vi ew of CO 2 re du ct io n po te nt ia l a pp ro ac h. 17 Ba ue r e t a l., 2 02 2 As se ss in g th e fe as ib ili ty o f a rc he ty pa l t ra ns iti on pa th w ay s to w ar d ca rb on ne ut ra lit y – A co m pa ra tiv e an al ys is of E ur op ea n in du st rie s Th e st ud y in ve st ig at es th e Eu ro pe an s te el , p la st ic , pu lp & pa pe r, an d m ea t & da iry in du st rie s em iss io ns • Pr od uc tio n an d en d- us e op tim iza tio n • El ec tr ifi ca tio n w ith C CU (C ar bo n ca pt ur e an d ut i li za tio n) • Ca rb on c ap tu re a nd st or ag e • Ci rc ul ar m at er ia l f lo w • Di ve rs ifi ca tio n of b io -fe ed st oc k us e Th is st ud y w as co nd uc te d w ith a Eu ro pe an pe rs pe ct iv e on th e he av y in du st ry . T he fr am ew or k is in te re st in g fo r m ak in g di st in ct io n be tw ee n CC U an d Ca rb on c ap tu re a nd st or ag e ( C CS ). Do le sk i e t a l., 2 02 2 Di gi ta l d ec ar bo ni za tio n In t he ir bo ok , t he a ut ho rs in ve st ig at e ho w de ca rb on iza tio n an d di gi ta liz at io n ca n he lp ac hi ev in g th e cl im at e ta rg et s gl ob al ly . In de pe nd en t of lo ca tio n an d in du st ria l se ct or , t he re a re c er ta in c or e el em en ts th at ar e ne ed ed fo r re ac hi ng c ar bo n ne ut ra lit y. Th es e ar e lis te d by th e au th or s. • Su bs tit ut io n of fo ss il en er gy c ar rie rs • U se o f r en ew ab le p ro ce ss h ea t • Re pl ac em en t of b as ic m at er ia ls th at ca us e em iss io ns • Se pa ra tio n of p ro du ce d em iss io ns • Re du ct io n of th e pr od uc tio n vo lu m e • In cr ea se in e ne rg y ef fic ie nc y • Im pr ov em en t o f e ne rg y co nv er sio n • O pt im iza tio n of e xi st in g pl an t f ac ili tie s • Av oi da nc e of p ro ce ss re la te d em iss io ns Th e fr am ew or k w as d ev el op ed w ith ou t a sp ec ifi c in du st ry s ec to r i n m in d. T hi s m ak es th e fr am ew or k in te re st in g an d op en re ga rd in g ho w i t ca n be s tu di ed w ith t he au to m ot iv e se ct or in m in d. va n Sl ui sv el d et a l., 2 02 1 A ra ce t o ze ro - A ss es sin g th e po sit io n of h ea vy in du st ry in a gl ob al n et - z er o CO 2 e m iss io ns Fr am ew or k de ve lo pe d fo r de ca rb on iza tio n pa th w ay s of f ou r ca rb on an d en er gy - in te ns iv e in du st rie s (ir on a nd s te el , c em en t an d cl in ke r, ch em ic al s, p ul p, a nd pa pe r) fo r ac hi ev in g gl ob a l ne t ze ro e m iss io ns b y th e ye ar 2 05 0. • En er gy a nd c ar bo n ef fic ie nc y • Fu el sw itc hi ng • Te ch no lo gi ca l c ho ic es Th e st ud y’ s gl ob al p er sp ec tiv e m ak es it pa rt ic ul ar ly us ef ul fo r Vo lv o GT O . I n ad di tio n to th is, th e ge ne ra l na tu re o f th e fr am ew or k m ak es i t us ef ul f or s tu dy in g th e au to m ot iv e in du st ry . La ne , 2 01 9 As se ss m en t of br oa de r th e br oa de r im pa ct s of de ca rb on iza tio n Th e fr am ew or k is gr ou nd ed in a Eu ro pe an r es ea rc h co lla bo ra tio n th at s tu di es in no va tio ns r el at ed to de ca rb on iza tio n in e n er gy - in te ns iv e in du st rie s su ch a s iro n an d st ee l, ce m en t an d cl in ke r, ch em ic al s, p ul p, a nd p ap er . • Te ch no lo gi ca l r ep la ce m en t • Pr oc es s I m pr ov em en t • De m an d m an ag em en t • Ci rc ul ar e co no m y Al th ou gh th e fr am ew or k w as de ve lo pe d ba se d on t he h ea vy in du st ry it is st ill br oa d an d ge ne ra l w hi ch m ak es it u se fu l f or th e au to m ot iv e in du st ry . 18 So ur ce Ti tle Ty pe o f st ud y an d in du st rie s Id en tif ie d st ra te gi es Re le va nc e 3.3 Energy system solutions Some countries have more low-carbon energy options available than others. In 2019, Sweden had a low carbon source share of 69% in their energy mix, France 49%, Brazil 46%, the United States 17%, and Australia 9%. As in the case of primary energy, the electricity mix also differs between countries. In 2021, 98% of Sweden's electricity came from low carbon sources. That value was 90% for France, 86% for Brazil, 40% for the United States and 25% for Australia (Ritchie & Roser, 2021). Based on this, it is important to keep in mind that sourcing renewable energy is not the same in different places. Some facilities will benefit from being located in countries that have more availability of this resource. Therefore, the options and solutions for supplying manufacturing operation with low carbon or renewable energy vary broadly and needs to be accounted for. 3.3.1 On-site/off-site renewable energy production There are several ways for companies to source renewable electricity. One way is to purchase electricity from an independent green power producer with so-called power purchase agreements (PPAs). Second, one can continue to consume standard electricity but invest in renewable energy certificates, such as renewable energy certificates (RECS) and guarantees of origin (GOs) to offset emissions. Thirdly, renewable electricity can be sourced by purchasing green tariffs from companies that offer green electricity contracts in addition to conventional ones. Lastly, there is the possibility that the companies invest in on-site and/or off-site technologies that produce renewable energy (Renewable Energy Agency, 2018). Agreements and sourcing possibilities for companies differ between countries. For example, the United States, Sweden, France, Brazil, and Australia have PPAs and utility green procurement programs. Having said that, sourcing of renewable energy has not reached a mature stage yet and there are both financial and technical risks connected to it (Renewable Energy Agency, 2018). When it comes to RECs, they are considered a fast way to offset electricity-related emissions, but they are not free from criticism. Some entities claim misuse and that it is not an ideal way to deal with emissions. Although purchasing credits for offsetting emissions is considered a common procedure, it does not change the fact that companies continue to emit carbon dioxide (Doleski et al., 2022). On-site renewable energy production can be installed within or on top of buildings or somewhere on the site. In this case, both transmission and distribution losses are minimized through direct supplying to the building system. Among the renewable energy possibilities, wind energy is a viable alternative where there are favorable conditions. It is harnessed by wind turbines of varied sizes. There are both benefits and drawbacks to this technology. The biggest benefit is that it has marginal CO2 emissions. However, the biggest drawback is that wind power produces inconsistent yields. The average payback period for a wind turbine has been estimated to be around 13 to 19 years on average. Photovoltaic (PV) panels and solar thermal panels are technologies that harness solar energy. In addition to the technical differences between these two technologies, there are also efficiency and application 19 variations. PVs are usually used for generating electricity with an energy efficiency of 46% and constantly increasing. They can be utilized for instance, in thermoelectric cooling systems. Solar thermal panels are used for heat generation, with an efficiency of up to 70% and the system can be connected to boilers. They can be integrated with thermally driven air conditioners. Their average payback period has been estimated to be 7 to 10 years (Ahmed et al., 2022). When considering increasing the share of renewable technologies, energy storage is a key factor to include. It is a tool for countering the fluctuations of demand and price of the energy system. There are several ways for storing energy and batteries are among the most common ones. However, there are certain tradeoffs when it comes to battery size and cost. Therefore, energy storage with battery should be optimized according to several parameters such as technical and financial factors (Ahmed et al., 2022). 3.3.2 Biofuels Biomass or more specifically biofuels are considered a “bridge” solution, which should eventually be phased out over time in favor of cleaner energy sources. Biofuels are renewable, and they are necessary because they can provide electricity on demand without the need of substituting most of the existing infrastructure. Nevertheless, biomass requires fertilizers which are connected to emissions. Moreover, biomass production competes over land with biodiversity and contributes to soil erosion along with other environmental issues (Hawken, 2017). When combusted, biofuels also contribute to air pollution (Wei et al., 2019). Nevertheless, biofuels still emit approximately ten times fewer carbon emissions per MWh in comparison to fossil fuels (Ahmed et al., 2022). Biogas is a viable alternative when considering the decarbonization of fuels. It is derived from biomass gasification as well as methane obtained from landfills (Wei et al., 2019). Biogas is produced by facilities that range from small to large scale. Central Europe has the largest presence of plants in the world followed by the US. This resource is still marginally used in Australia. However, it is estimated that it has the potential to cover 9% of the country's energy needs. It is forecasted that countries such as Germany and Sweden will spearhead the development and establishment of biogas (Abanades et al., 2022). Regarding the global market, Europe has 16% the share, the US has 16% of the share and Brazil has 12% of the share (IEA, 2020). Biomass is produced in several ways and consists of different compositions. Therefore, the lifecycle footprint has a large spread profile (Ahmed et al., 2022). In the case of liquified biomethane as an alternative to fossil-based gases, studies have shown that it has low production costs, low GHG emissions, decreases nitrogen oxides and decreased particulate matter (Verger et al., 2022). There are several applications for biogas both for private use and for societal applications. For example, it can be used for heat generation in specific boilers, or it can be used in modified natural gas boilers. Another application is creating biomethane from biogas which is a novel technology that is growing in popularity. Biomethane can be used as a vehicle fuel. Additionally, biogas can be used in combined heat and power (CHP) systems to reduce energy conversion losses when biogas is converted to heat or electricity. It is especially interesting for processes that require elevated temperatures (Abanades et al., 2022). Although biogas is widely known and used for different applications, the production volumes are yet to grow considerably. There are several barriers that are hindering the growth of the biogas industry. 20 The technical barriers are primarily related to the supply chains of the industry and the details surrounding the production of biogas. For example, cold winters often lead to lower production rates. When it comes to cost, there are several drivers and barriers that play a significant role in the competitiveness of biogas. High investment costs, scarcity of loans/subsidies and land competition are several examples of cost drives. In some cases, as it was in Germany in 2018, the cost of electricity for different biogas technologies was among the highest and surpassed PV, wind, brown coal, and hard coal. In addition to this, the cost of biogas is higher than the cost for natural gas. Furthermore, policy is playing a major part in the establishment of biogas. More specifically, uncertain, and unclear policies have a negative impact on established actors and newcomers (Nevzorova & Kutcherov, 2019). It is globally forecasted that by 2040, the biomethane potential is going to increase with 40% and the price is set to decrease with 25% (IEA, 2020). In addition to the type of biomass application previously mentioned, there are several types of biomass-based fuels available on the market such as HVO (Hydrogenated vegetable oils), (Hydro processed esters and fatty acids), biodiesel, and bio-coke. These fuels have the possibility to either be utilized at the concentration of 100% or be blended with fossil fuels. The foremost advantage of biomass-based fuels is that they do not damage or require modifications to engines. However, there is a large spread in production costs that are dependent on the level of technology readiness and on what production processes are being utilized. This is also the case regarding GHG emissions where there is a large spread for each of the alternatives. The conducted study showed a large spread in GHG emission for HVO (5kg CO2/GJ – 76 CO2/GJ) while biodiesel showed a smaller spread (39 kg CO2/GJ – 45 kg CO2/GJ) (Verger et al., 2022). 3.3.3 Hydrogen Sustainable hydrogen is a viable alternative for decarbonization in the industrial sector (Rissman et al., 2020). Despite being a colorless gas, hydrogen carries different color designations depending on its origin in the production process. The division consists of green, blue, grey, and brown hydrogen. In its least polluting form, green hydrogen is produced through the electrolysis of water using 100 % renewable electricity thus with no CO2 emissions. Grey hydrogen is produced from methane, coming either from natural gas or biogas in a process called gas or steam reforming and some CO2 is emitted. Blue hydrogen is produced the same way as grey hydrogen with the only difference being advanced gas reforming CCS or CCU. Because in practice, no technical process has perfect efficiency, a residual amount of carbon dioxide naturally always is emitted (Doleski et al., 2022). Lastly, brown hydrogen is produced from coal by reacting coal with oxygen and steam under high heat and pressure in a process called gasification. The production price varies depending on the method, with the least polluting alternatives being more expensive than more polluting ones (Johnson Matthey, 2022). The costs associated with hydrogen have difficulties in competing with natural gas, especially when it comes to costs for transportation and production equipment (Rissman et al., 2020). Moreover, regulatory barriers and permits are unclear and vary depending on country legislations which makes the technology difficult to implement within different sectors. In addition to this, there are logistical issues due to the inherent properties of the fuel. Despite having high energy content, it must be cooled down to increase its density for enabling transportation. This has been considered a main barrier for it to become widespread adopted, especially talking about large scale application. Today, hydrogen is 21 almost entirely supplied from fossil fuels. Therefore, the production of hydrogen is now responsible for CO2 emissions of around 830 million tons of carbon dioxide per year (IEA, 2019). As previously mentioned, hydrogen power can be produced in various ways and with various fuels. Brown, grey, and blue hydrogen all rise above the low carbon threshold. Therefore, Longden et al., (2022) claims that there is the possibility to integrate hydrogen production with CCS. If that is considered, hydrogen from natural gas with a CCS capacity of 90% is the only way to make it a low carbon alternative, considering emissions such as direct emissions, process emissions and fugitive emissions. However, emissions from transport and storage of the captured CO2 were not included and can look different depending on the scenario (Longden et al., 2022). When considering green hydrogen, the biggest factors regarding cost are the price of electricity, the capital cost of the actual electrolyzers and at what capacity they are utilized. However, for the last decade costs for generating electricity through PV and wind have decreased substantially and projections have predicted additional cost decrease for LOCE for both alternatives by the year 2030. Moreover, the increased implementation of electrolyzers is predicted to further lower the capital cost by the year 2030. This is predicted for both alkaline electrolyzers and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzers (Longden et al., 2022). Regarding storage of renewable energy, hydrogen can be used as an energy storage solution when more renewable electricity is being produced than being used. It is regarded as becoming one of lowest-cost alternative to store electricity, especially for longer time frames (IEA, 2019). 3.3.4 Sector coupling Sector coupling refers to the integration of energy system components related to natural gas, electricity, and petroleum infrastructure. It comprises the integration of energy end-use (buildings, transport, and industry) and supply sectors (power-producing) with one another to further achieve decarbonization. Considered key technologies to reduce GHG emissions, electric equipment and boilers, heat pumps and electrolysis for hydrogen production can be coupled to the energy system (Doleski et al., 2022). Sector coupling tends to relate to higher electricity demand, and consequently the need for more renewable electricity generation. According to the literature, a fully decarbonized energy system will require more electricity than today’s consumption, meaning that extra flexibility will be needed to manage all the intermittent electricity sourced (Kerstine Appun, 2018). To achieve strong sector coupling and to realize its full benefits, a comprehensive model is needed that represents the whole energy system. This model would include the major supply sources including electricity, refined petroleum products and the natural gas sectors and on the output side, representation of the usage. Such a model brings multiple benefits, such as understanding the interactions across the system, identifying challenges and opportunities that would not otherwise be apparent, avoiding over or undercounting of costs, GHG, benefits, etc., establishing where best to focus, where to get the highest return on an investment, etc., and understanding all the consequences of decisions (Doleski et al., 2022). 3.3.5 District heating District heating operation can vary depending on geographical location. In some places, it is powered by CHP plants, in others by waste to energy plants. The generated heat is transported to both private and public facilities. Approximately 90% of the world's district heating system is powered by fossil 22 fuels, while for Europe it is approximately 70%. Certain facilities have started to increase their share of renewable energy to reduce CO2 emissions. Certain energy mixes have a larger share of renewables, nuclear power, and biogas. Most district heating systems are already integrated with power generation, which further facilitates the transition toward an increasing share of renewable energy (Werner, 2017). There are several advantages to district heating. It is usually cheaper than electricity and, in the case of Sweden, it has a good environmental profile (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015). However, the price for district heating changes with geographical area and supplier. Moreover, there is only one supplier for every designated geographical area which eliminates the opportunity of choice. Sourcing is only possible if there is an adjacent network (Swedish Energy Markets Inspectorate, 2021). Because district heating is an efficient heat supply option for both the industrial and residential sectors, multiple countries in the world are implementing or expanding their capacity. In addition to being energy efficiency, district heating is regarded as a valuable tool for societal decarbonization. It can be integrated with innovative and sustainable technologies for decreasing the overall fossil utilization. These solutions range from implementation of solar thermal capacity, bioenergy, and utilization of excess heat (EIA, 2021). In Sweden, district heating companies are looking to completely replace fossil fuels in the coming years once the emissions from this sector are for most parts derived from the burning of plastic waste. In addition, CCS can be integrated to district heating. As an example, a Stockholm based district heating company is developing pilot programs regarding the integration of bio-CCS negative emissions from their operation. It is forecasted that Swedish district heating will be CO2 emission free by 2050 (Fossil free Sweden, 2021). 3.4 Manufacturing processes solutions In the production of trucks and other vehicles, there are several activities involved that are responsible for CO2 emissions. Common manufacturing processes are assembly, welding, painting, stamping, casting, and machining. In addition, building control systems also contribute to manufacturing emissions through heating, cooling, lighting, etc., (Giampieri et al., 2020). Most of the manufacturing processes listed above are included in the powertrain and vehicle body shop. The vehicle body shop is where most of the welding, and joining processes take place and for the most part, these are powered by electricity. Also, in stamping, where steel coils are turned into parts of the vehicle such as the roof or hood, compressed air is used which is generated by electrically driven machines. Powertrain production is responsible for the production and assembly of transmission gears and engines. Activities taking place within the powertrain are, for instance, metal casting, machining, and assembly. These activities are for the most part electrified, except for casting, and certain steps are energy demanding, which is the case of engine casting. After the vehicles are painted, the final assembly takes place to put every component together into the final product. In this step, electricity is mostly consumed to supply compressed air and for powering conveyor belts and robots (Giampieri et al., 2020). The electricity usage has a varied application. In general, it is used to compress air, provide ventilation and lightning, and metal forming. In addition, motors are responsible for powering compressed air solutions, robots, and pumps found in activities such as stamping, and assembly and they also consume a large share of electricity. Painting activities have the possibility to make 27% to up half of 23 a facility's electrical consumption, heating, and cooling from 11 to 20%, lightning 14 to 15%, compressed air 9 to 14%, and welding and other material handling tools 7 to 8%. The averages of these shares are depicted in Figure 4. It is important to mention that this does not consider foundry-related activities (Giampieri et al., 2020). Figure 4. Electricity consumption in the manufacturing processes. 3.4.1 Assembly, welding, and stamping As previously mentioned, assembly, welding and stamping operations are for the most part, already electrified in the automotive industry. Therefore, the decarbonization focus for these operations lies in reducing electricity consumption. One of the main uses of electricity is by compressed air systems, which are used in multiple processes. Despite its wide application, they have a low efficiency of power converted to useful energy which is around 10%. There are measures usually taken to enhance the efficiency such as maintenance of the leaks in pipes and minimization of the pressure drop. However, these are considered low hanging fruits which in most cases have already been implemented. The high inefficiency of compressed air systems creates an opportunity for heat recovery, which can be used to turn efficiency losses in form of heat into thermal energy that can be used in other processes (Giampieri et al., 2020). Assembly operations are a large part of the automotive manufacturing process, and it will need to be mostly reframed as additional components become part of future vehicles. With greater electrification of transportation, certain changes will take place in the manufacturing to accommodate the requirements of the next generation of vehicles. Devices such cameras, radar and batteries for electric vehicles, and the related electronics will contribute to the complexity of the assembly process and further to the vehicle’s end-of-life inspection (Giampieri et al., 2020). Welding in the automotive manufacturing processes is often highly automated and high yields of energy efficiency have already been achieved. There are, nevertheless, other technologies in the development phase that could further reduce energy consumption, such as it is the case of rapid freeform sheet metal forming (RAFFT). This technology is based on the production of sheet metal parts with double-sided incremental forming instead of using stamping and forming dies. Energy consumption could be reduced by 50–90% in comparison to the conventional technology. In a longer time perspective, joining processes will require significant changes as conventional techniques will not be feasible due to the use of varied materials and differences in their melting point. New approaches 24 for mixed materials include adhesive, fasteners, and laser welding, but more research is needed to meet the energy consumption compared to the current efficient spot-welding technique. The new generation of vehicles will contribute with changes in the stamping process. Due to increased usage of advanced high-strength steel (AHSS), carbon composites and plastics, methods such hot stamping will have to replace cold stamping techniques. This technology has not yet reached maturity and is expected to reach it by 2025. The hot stamping technology will increase the energy use and will have to be integrated with waste heat recovery to increase the energy efficiency. In turn, the recovered waste heat will be able to power applications such as heat pumps (Giampieri et al., 2020). 3.4.2 Painting Paint deposition and curing processes involve many steps accounting for significant consumption of electricity, fuel, compressed air, hot and chilled water when producing vehicles. Electricity is used mostly to power fan motors and produce secondary energy sources in the painting process while natural gas is consumed to heat up the air used in the paint spray booth and in the curing ovens. Moreover, gas is used for heating up water, which is necessary for pre-treatment during the painting process. In a smaller amount, approximately 2% of it is also used to remove VOC emitted during the process (Giampieri et al., 2020). Renewable energy has an enormous potential to be integrated into the paint shop. An example is a solar thermal technology developed by Dürr, which is the world's largest paint shop builder worldwide. This uses Fresnel collectors, which are basically linear concentrating solar thermal collectors optimized for industrial applications, to produce superheated water up to 400 °C which can be delivered to the ovens for the paint curing process. Following this, a heat cascade strategy can be established taking into consideration the different temperature requirements in the paint shop. Alternatively, other curing techniques, such as infrared (IR) and ultraviolet (UV) curing, can be employed to reduce energy consumption by substituting conventional curing techniques. These technologies require lower temperature and time compared to conventional (Giampieri et al., 2020). Another effective strategy for reducing emissions in the painting process is the reformulation of the paint composition and the paint drying process. As a common practice, preference is given to paints with low VOC emission, which is usually the case of water-based paints when compared to solvent- based ones. However, water as a diluent requires that it be evaporated through a drying process that consumes large amounts of energy and emits CO2. Therefore, the key issue to be addressed is how to use water-based paints that greatly reduce VOC emissions while reducing the CO2 emissions that result from producing the required energy. This is way the reduction of painting process complexity is the top strategy for energy consumption reduction in this process (Giampieri et al., 2020). One technology used in this sense is the three-wet painting. This technology not only presents low energy consumption and less CO2 emissions, but it also has a better performance when it comes to VOC emission than conventional painting processes. This system applies all three paint layers, primer, base and clear top coat while still wet and requires only one drying process to finish, reducing energy requirements and bringing CO2 emissions down by more than 15% and volatile organic compound (VOC) by as much as 45% compared to conventional painting processes (Mazda, 2022). A second innovative process related to the painting was developed by Mazda in the 2010s, called aqua-tech paint system. This process is based on efficiency gains along with two new types of top coat 25 paint that were developed specifically for this system: a water-based color basecoat and a urethane clear coat. These paints also exhibit additional properties that are usually provided by the primer paint, which becomes unnecessary and reduces the painting process and by doing so, curtailing energy consumption and CO2 emissions without affecting quality. The efficiency gains refer to air-conditioning the paint booth, which produced a 34% reduction in CO2 emission in comparison to conventional water-based paint booths. The paint booth is a large space that can hold an entire vehicle body. That requires a large-scale air conditioning system and a large amount of energy, particularly during warmest and coldest seasons. The new system developed by the company “constantly controls the maximum water vapor absorption volume by monitoring external conditions and making the minimum necessary adjustments to temperature and humidity inside the paint booth” (Mazda, 2022). This results in further reductions in energy consumption during the painting process. This is considered one of the most environmentally friendly automotive paint systems in the world (Mazda, 2022). Another solution to decarbonize the paint shop includes heat recovery. Recovering the thermal energy that would have otherwise could be beneficial in terms of curtailing natural gas requirements. The recovery can occur through recuperative heat exchangers, regenerative heat exchangers, thermal wheels, and heat pumps (Mohammadpour & Hane, 2020). The selection of the heat recovery method lies on the temperature range, the intended application (cooling or heating) and the required working fluid. From the regenerative thermal oxidizers (RTO), compressors, ovens, and dryers from the paint shop, thermal energy can be recovered and used for heating up water, which could then be employed for space or processes heating. For that purpose, heat pumps are a usual technology used. Heat could also easily be recovered from the process involved in oxidizing the VOCs present in the exhaust air and used to heat up air used in the paint booth. The potential reduction of natural gas consumption is reported to be around 16%. A second example of heat recovery lies within the paint curing oven, from where heat can be used to precondition outdoor air, particularly during winter. The reported heat recovery efficiency is 45% but contaminants in the exhaust air must be filtered or removed before the process (Giampieri et al., 2020). The investment capital cost of heat recovery technologies limits the economic benefits of the process. However, it is proven as economically advantageous in the design phase of a new paint shop, while it is limited in retrofitting. Another issue when working with heat recovery, is that two or more different processes might have to be integrated. Different processes can work at different rates and in that case, it is not guaranteed whether it is possible to completely synchronize, shut down or alternate the operating pace of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning of different processes to match heat recovery strategies (Mohammadpour & Hane, 2020). Also, Heat recovery is largely dependent on the economy- of -scale.- Equipment costs favor large -scale heat recovery systems and create challenges for small-scale operations (U.S. Department of Energy, 2008). 3.4.3 Casting processes Casting processes usually take place in foundries for cast iron production, where either scrap or ingots can be used as starting material. Firstly, the scrap or ingots must be melted at a temperature of about 1450 to 1500 degrees Celsius in furnaces, which can have various designs. Some examples are the cupola furnace and the CIF (Coreless induction furnace) (Stefana et al., 2019). The cupola is considered one of the most effective melting units and it is powered by coke, which is a coal-based material. The disadvantages with the cupula furnace are that the high-quality coke that is required in the process is 26 becoming scarcer and that the emissions from the process are quite significant (Campbell, 2015). On the other hand, CIFs produce heat without combustion since they are powered by electricity, and they require elevated raw material quality compared to the cupola. The quality of the input materials regulates the output of the melting process such as the quality of the metallurgical waste. Lower quality of metallurgical waste decreases the possibility of recycling. Energy losses associated with CIF furnaces are heat losses, more specifically radiation and transmissions losses (Stefana et al., 2019). Molding is a parallel activity to the melting that produces molds where the melted metal is shaped (Stefana et al., 2019). Molds can be produced with different techniques and consist of different materials. Greensand, which is a mixture between clay and water, is often used as a molding medium for having several benefits. It is highly effective, it can be recycled, and has minimal environmental impact. Furthermore, it is economically advantageous due to its low costs. Thereafter, the melted scrap and the produced molds are sent to the casting shop where the casting if performed (Campbell, 2015). The casting process consists of several steps such as pouring, cooling, the shakeout (Separation of the casting and molding material) and the casting cooling. Regarding the emissions from the casting process, it is strongly related to the molding material choice. Furthermore, combustion gases are generated from the preheating of ladles and cooling process. Sand casting makes it possible to not only recycle the scrap from the process but also recycling the sand that is used as molding material. The two last steps of the foundry process are the finishing shop and quality control. Activities found in the finishing shop is sand removal, removal of burns and heat treatments such as hardening. Emissions from the heat treatment varies depending on the type of fuel that is used, how the burners are designed and the maintenance activities (Stefana et al., 2019). There are several possibilities to reduce emissions in blast furnaces, such as using biofuel alternatives. Bio-based alternatives include several alternatives produced from different methods and feedstocks. The most suitable feedstock for metallurgical applications is wood based due to its favorable chemical composition. Regardless of the type of feedstock, the biomass must undergo several processes for reducing the moisture content and increasing the carbon content. There is a broad range of thermochemical processes involved such as hydrothermal carbonization (HTC), slow pyrolysis, fast pyrolysis, and gasification. These processes result in different products. Some of the main products are HTC biomass, resulted from hydrothermal carbonization; biochar, obtained from slow pyrolysis; bio-oil from fast pyrolysis; and syngas, obtained from gasification. Life cycle CO2 emissions of these bio-based alternatives vary significantly. For example, biobased charcoal ranges from about 4 to 18 gCO2/MJ while coal has a life cycle footprint of 115 gCO2/MJ (Suopajärvi et al., 2018). In addition to the previously mentioned biobased alternatives, bio-coke is a viable alternative for substituting fossil-based coke. This is due to beneficial properties such as similar energy, low moisture, high carbon content, and high compressive strength. In addition to this, bio-coke has shown good storage and transportation possibilities due to its properties (Mansor et al., 2018). As for supply chains of bio-based alternatives for blast furnace applications, there is large scarcity of actors in Europe which inhibits large scale implementations (Suopajärvi et al., 2018). 27 3.4.4 Building control systems Building control systems are used to regulate environmental conditions inside buildings. They are required in all vehicle production plants for operation to provide an optimal working condition in terms of safety and comfort. These include heating, ventilation and air-conditioning and lighting (Giampieri et al., 2020). Integrated building design, retrofitting, and energy conservation strategies help achieve more energy efficient buildings. Simple examples of strategies include implementing advanced insulation and under floor heating (Ahmed et al., 2022). Heat pump is a viable technology for satisfying heating and cooling needs. They can replace boilers that are usually powered by fossil fuels. However, there are limitations to certain heat pumps such as air-source pumps that cannot be operated efficiently in cold climates (Ahmed et al., 2022). Even if heat pumps are regarded as a promising technology, factors such as high electricity prices, high initial investments costs and cheap natural gas can be hindering for large scale implementations in most markets (IEA, 2021c). However, if both electricity and fuel prices are high, it is more worth using heat pumps since higher energy prices increase the value of cost savings relative to capital cost, which improves the payback (U.S. Department of Energy, 2003). It is predicted that heat pumps could satisfy 90% of the global water and space heating. This can be achieved with lower emissions in comparison to gas boilers (IEA, 2021c). There are several types of heat pumps available. Ground source heat pump (GHPS) is a technology that utilizes thermal heating and can be seen as available option for replacing boilers that are gas driven which functions well in cold climates. It functions by harnessing constant soil, rock, and water temperatures below the surface. However, it requires electrically driven pumps to power the heat collecting pipes that contain both water and antifreeze. On the other hand, air source heat pumps (ASHPs) utilize outside heat to power underfloor heating systems, water, and radiators. ASHPs can be powered by renewable, and it does not require complicated installation. In addition, it can deliver warm water and heat depending on it type. However, it generates relatively high emissions and is not suitable for cold climates. The average payback period of heat pumps has been estimated to be 5 to 15 years. (Ahmed et al., 2022). 3.5 Carbon capture Carbon capture is a technology that recovers carbon emitted by processes and it is categorized as a negative CO2 emissions technology. When it comes to the industry, there are some major widespread solutions to sequester carbon. It might be directly from the air, also known as direct air capture (DAC), through biomass, in a process called bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), or through end-of-pipe technologies at point emitting sources (Hawken, 2017). Despite offering a promising solution to handle emissions, a major issue that has prevented end-of- pipe solutions from being widely used in the industry is the techno-economic feasibility. Its scalability is limited to large point sources and the technology available is simply not ready for small emitters. As an example, a study conducted by Leeson et al (2017) stated that the 180 biggest steels mills in the world average 3.5 Mton CO2 emissions per year and there are multiple other sites with a smaller production capacity that average CO2 emissions of 170 000 tons/year. The smaller facilities were left out of the study due to them not showing economic feasibility. Another factor mentioned in the study 28 above is infrastructure. Despite big steel mills being large point sources of emissions, there still must be methods for either combing the streams of the flue gasses or constructing multiple carbon and capture installations to handle the different point sources. Also, transportation and storage costs must be considered. Lastly, high purity of CO2 is an important factor for economic feasibility (Leeson et al., 2017). One alternative to end-of-pipe solutions is DAC. It functions as an extraction technology that captures CO2 from the atmosphere and does not require adjacency to specific industrial sites. There are currently 19 DAC facilities in operation with an operating capacity of 0,01 Mt CO2/year. When it comes to cost, there is a large spread in cost estimations that depend on the assumed technological development. For the net-zero emissions scenario in 2050, this technology must grow to have the capacity of capturing 85 Mt CO2/year by the year 2030. In addition to DAC, forests can naturally capture CO2, in methods such as afforestation or methods that enhance natural processes that transform vegetation into biochar (IEA, 2021a). Another aspect about CCS is that it can be differentiated among natural sinks vs technical sinks. Natural sinks include afforestation and reforestation while a technical approach is handled with end of pipe solutions that sequester carbon from flue gases (Doleski et al., 2022). In the case of technical sinks, the challenges coupled with CCS concern the lack of infrastructure for transportation and storage. These serve as a crucial factor to determine the viability for industries or clusters to support and invest in CCS solutions (F Bauer et al., 2022). Also, the opportunities for CO2 capture for instance in steel production vary depending on the process and the feedstock used (Rootzén et al., 2011). The largest flow of CO2 in a conventional steel mill is generated in the blast furnace. Recovery of CO2 from the blast furnace gas is a feasible capture option by applying current end-pipe technologies so that around 30% of the overall CO2 emissions from a conventional integrated steel plant could be captured and prevented to be released into the atmosphere (Rootzén, 2015). 29 4. Results In section 4.1, the decarbonization frameworks reviewed in the literature are gathered and a framework is developed. After identifying, comparing, and understanding the different decarbonization strategies across industries, an inquiry is presented consisting of solutions that are considered pivotal for bringing emissions down specifically for manufacturing in the automotive industry. Thereafter, the interviews are presented following a SWOT and feasibility assessment of the identified decarbonization solutions. 4.1 Framework The trajectories toward industry decarbonization found in the literature and listed in Table 4, were put together for comparison in the Table 5. Table 5. Classification of strategies identified in the studied frameworks. Strategies Frameworks Fu el sh ift St ru ct ur al ch an ge (e le ct rif ic at io n) Ca rb on c ap tu re Pr oc es s Ef fic ie nc y Te ch no lo gi ca l re pl ac em en t Ci rc ul ar ity Others M at er ia l En er gy Richard Lane, 2019 X X X X X Demand management van Sluisveld et al., 2021 X X X X X X Doleski et al., 2022 X X X X X X Reduction of the production volume Bauer et al., 2022 X X X X X X X Fitzpatrick & Dooley, 2017 X X X X X Rootzén, 2015 X X X X X T. Brown et al., 2012 X X X X X Alter product design and waste protocols Swedish ministry of the environment, 2020 X X X X X X Total 7 6 8 5 8 7 4 30 As one can observe, certain strategies that have been pointed out in the energy-intensive industry or in the industry, in general, seem to be recurring among the different sources. Fuel shift; structural change; carbon capture; process efficiency, including both material and energy efficiency; technological replacement and circularity were inductively identified as the six major pathways that span across different industrial sectors and can be thought of as strategic transition pathways to reach carbon neutrality in the manufacturing. Therefore, they have been framed in an own framework presented in Figure 5. Overall, the framework consisting of six strategies, can be considered applicable to the automotive industry and relevant to Volvo GTO. Other strategies that have been listed in the literature but do not seem to be relevant to the framework, are listed under ‘others’ in the last column of Table 5. These are considered less related to manufacturing but rather to the designing phase or volume reduction in production. Figure 5. Decarbonization framework. The strategies are collectively exhaustive, but not mutually exclusive. In other words, all the solutions found in the literature are accounted for in the framework, but some strategies may overlap. With that said, one technical solution can be assigned to multiple strategies. For instance, electrification can be responsible for an increase in energy efficiency and may require technological replacements. Nevertheless, to keep the solutions framed in a structured way, they will be presented belonging to a certain major strategy. In the example above, electrification can be considered before anything else, a major structural conversion of manufacturing; thus, it would be considered a structural change. Another example is LED. These light bulbs increase the efficiency compared to incandescent bulbs. However, they rely on a different working principle i.e., a different technology. Thus, they would be treated as a technological replacement. Lastly, If LED would be replaced with newer iterations of LED lights, this would be considered as energy efficiency, since no working principle has been altered. A more detailed explanation of each decarbonization