Adaptation to Climate Change An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion Prepared by Nina Akhavan Examiner: Jaan-Henrik Kain Department of Architecture CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Göteborg, Sweden 2011 THESIS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE DESIGN FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Adaptation to Climate Change An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion Prepared by Nina Akhavan Examiner: Jaan-Henrik Kain Abstract Adaptation to climate change in coastal cities is a crucial issue to prevent severe and inevitable impacts of fl ood risk. As a consequence of climate change, the vulnerability of societies, nature and economy is expected to increase. However, adaptation could be an opportunity rather than a threat if we make climate adaptation integrated into urban planning. A transdisci- plinary study has been carried out by Mistra Urban Futures -centre for sus- tainable urban development- to propose adaptation strategies for sustainable development for Frihamnen former port in central Gothenburg which is the departure point of this thesis. Regarding the fact that incorporation of social inclusion and supporting all parts of societies could be a challenge in the future of adapted to climate change cities, I have to pose the main research question of this thesis as “How can social inclusion be promoted in coastal areas which are about to be adapted to climate change?” and subsequently “What design criteria could be recommended in order to enhance social inclusion in these areas?” Since more attention to climate adaptation strategies’ effects on the society is required, I have explored effective components of social inclusion to show how it can be promoted in the process of adaptation to climate change. Dur- ing the studying I have developed sub questions and defi ned facts and ideas by studying three cases of urban renewal supported by the theoretical frame- work. The fi ndings on how urban redevelopment processes affect societies have been analysed using systems thinking method for the interpretation of academic fi ndings into design criteria that may inform design practice. This research has been analysed across three main themes: a) urban policy; b) gentrifi cation; c) public interaction. It shows that urban policies could direct social inclusion with a mixed blend and variety of urban environment to attract wider group of people; different type of land ownership makes vari- ous groups of people to reside; public spaces and different activities causing advent of more audience; more facilities to entrepreneurs resulting opportu- nities for smaller ventures. Eventually this work has lead to come up with effective components as well as six design criteria by which the planners might benefi t from. Key words: Climate change adaptation, Gentrifi cation, Social inclusion 1. Introduction 1.1. Background 1.2. Climate change in Sweden 1.3. Gothenburg 1.4. Frihamnen 1.5. Göta River level rising 1.6. Strategies of Adaptation to climate change in Frihamnen 1.7. Research Questions Table of contents Abstract Table of Contents List of fi gures and tables List of acronyms and abbreviation Acknowledgements Preface iii iv v vi vii ix 1 4 4 4 7 8 10 14 2. Methods 2.1. Methodology 3. Materials and Analyses 3.1. Theoretical Framework 3.1.1. Social exclusion 3.1.2. Social Integration 3.1.3.Gentrifi cation 3.1.4. Anti-social behavior 3.1.5. Liveability 3.1.6. Social deprivation 3.2. Urban Studies 3.2.1. Inner Vesterbro, Copenhagen 3.2.2. Hammarby Sjöstad 3.2.3. Hamburgh 4. Result 4.1. Approach 4.2. Social Exclusion System 4.3. Social Inclusion System 5. Discussion 5.1. Critical Components 5.2. Recommendation 5.3. Conclusion 5.4. Suggestion for further studies 5.5. Question for the future Bibliography 18 18 24 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 34 43 55 55 57 60 68 69 71 72 73 73 List of fi gures and tables 1. Gothenburg location between Scandinavian capital cities 2. The likely bridges on Göta River, 3. Sea level rising in Frihamnen 4. Sea level rising in Frihamnen 5, 6. Retreat Strategy 7, 8. Attack Strategy 9, 10. Defend Strategy 11,12,13. Illustration Retreat, Attack, and Defend by SWECO 14. Input, Process and output of the research 15. Vesterbro Passage 16. The Inner Vesterbro Urban renewal area 17. Housing in Vesterbro, 2008 18. Facts and Ideas in Inner-Vesterbro, Copenhagen 19, Pre-industrial use 20, Industrial use 21. An odd industrial area. Lugnet.1997 22. Bird view Hammarby Sjöstad 23. Conserving nature and creating new green public spaces 24. Lanscape Hammarby Sjöstad 25. Oversized Apartment with large windows 26. Facts and Ideas in Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm. 27, 28, 29, 30. Lanscape of Hammarby Sjöstad 31. Site model of Hafen City 32. Facts and Ideas in Hafen City, Hamburg 33. Buildings sit on elevated plinths 34. Aerial view of the Marco Polo Terraces looking north. 35. Panorama of the Magellan Terraces 36. The new Unilever building 37. Social Exclusion system 38. Social Inclusion system 39. Social Inclusion, Social Integration and Key Activities loop 40. Social Inclusion, Rental increases and Urban Policy relations 41. Social Inclusion and critical components 6 7 9 9 11 11 11 12 21 28 29 30 33 36 36 36 37 39 40 40 41 42 44 49 51 51 51 51 58 61 62 62 64 30 31 Table 1. Age and standard of basic amenities in pre-renewal Inner Vesterbro housing Table 2. Socioeconomic changes in Inner Vesterbro, 1997–2005 (percentage of the total List of acronyms and abbreviation BSSSC Baltic Sea States Subregional Cooperation CABE Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency GHG Green House Gas ICE Institution of Civil Engineering ICT Information Communication Technology IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change OR Operational Research NERC Natural Environment Research Council SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SEU Social Exclusion Unit SGI Swedish Geotechnical Institute SGOR Swedish Government Offi cial Reports SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency UNRISD United Nations Research Institute for Social Development UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe VRS Verband Region Stuttgart FSSK Forum för Studier av Samtidskultur The pilot project as the departure point of this thesis have been carried out by Mistra Urban Futures. Moreover, the urban renewal cases discussed in the present thesis have been implemented within a number of research projects. There have also been researchers in Chalmers University and in the mu- nicipality of Gothenburg and Stockholm who supported me along the way to give me recent documents related to my research and taking time to respond my emails: Gregory M. Morrison, Ulf Moback, Camilla Näslund, Malena Karlsson, Catharina Thörn and Bo Aronsson. I would like to express my appreciation to my supervisor and examiner Jaan-Henrik Kain for his professional and kind supports during this pe- riod, Liane Thuvander and Per Knutsson for assessing my project. I owe great gratitude to Sweden for giving me the opportunity to study and research in a comfortable and equipped circumstance. Finally, my gratitude goes to my parents who have given me the security needed to carry out this thesis from abroad. Acknowledgement I have practiced and taught architecture for fi ve years before starting studying Design for Sustainable Development programme in Chalmers University. I have done a design oriented project as my fi rst master thesis in architecture about how social integration between ‘Iranians’ as hosts and ‘Afghans’ as guests can be promoted in a residential complex for refugees. While I was designing the refugees’ residential complex I was thinking about how my researches for the thesis might contribute to the design quality of the project. During that period that I was working as an architecture consultant and tutoring academic projects in architecture school, I realized that research about architectural realities is necessar- ily an interdisciplinary matter and architectural research must be engaged with different disciplines. After few years, armed with many more questions about architects’ role to produce knowledge for sustainable development, I found myself inter- ested in mitigation of climate change and adaptation of its impacts of it. In the master programme of Design for Sustainable Development, I have studied almost all of the courses related to designing sustainable building and mitigating climate change in construction fi eld. However, my ques- tion about ‘what are the urgent needs of cities to cope with the impact of climate change?’ was the motivation to become engage with the pilot project by Mistra Urban Futures ‘A City Structure Adapted to Climate Change’. Through reviewing the technical strategies for protecting the former port in the inner city of Gothenburg, I realised that more inter- disciplinary research is needed to recommend appropriate useful design criteria for planners and architects to achieve the goal of the City to create a sustainable city. Finally, I have decided to explore some social aspects of sustainability which I have been involved with it for several years. Preface “Architectural research allows us to understand a little better, that successful built environments are successful not just because of their physical attributes, but also because of many human considerations.” David Wang, 2002, Architectural Research Methods An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 Introduction 1 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 1. Introduction Adaptation to climate change Climate change is an ongoing phenomena which has been recognized as an existing risk of fl ooding in coastal areas. Cities play an impor- tant role in the climate adaptation process since they have already been adapting continuously to changing conditions and attracting economic activities and investments. Climate change is therefore an additional opportunity rather than a threat if it is addressed in urban- ization planning and regulations. Since, todays’ choices will infl u- ence vulnerability in the future (Aerts et al, 2011), it is important to explore different effective measures and aspects of planned infra- structures. An adapted-to-climate-change plan, based on all three pil- lars of sustainability, environment, economy and society, may initiate opportunities and innovations for investors and spatial planners. Mistra Urban Futures -centre for sustainable urban development- has carried out a trans-disciplinary study in the frame of a pilot project ‘A City Structure Adapted to Climate Change’. Three different strate- gies (retreat, attack, defend) based on recent UK report (ICE 2009) are examined to be used in planning and development of Frihamnen in this pilot project. These strategies will be explained as background of this thesis. However, uniting social sustainability with climate ad- aptation is a remaining research challenge (Morrison et al, 2011). 2 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 while there are quite a lot of discussions and reports about climate change adaptation less attention has been directed to how adaptation strategies affect cities and how these supports all parts of society’s needs (Morrison et al, 2011). Since the incorporation of social fair- ness into the future of Frihamnen seems to be a challenge as a result of adaptation to climate change, I will inquire about effective compo- nents of social inclusion to discuss: “How can social inclusion be promoted in coastal areas which are about to be adapted to climate change?” and “What design criteria could be recommended in order to enhance social inclusion in these areas?” The fi rst research question is aimed towards academic research, while the second is aimed to translate the fi ndings into a format that is useful for e.g. planners and architects. To address these two main research questions I will employ theoretical framework to explain urban renewal effects on the societies and make the research problem more clear. To defi ne effective components and their consequences on societies, I will review three urban renewal projects -Vesterbro in Copenhagen, Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm and HafenCity in Hamburg- in the material and analyses chapter. Reviewed case stud- ies will be compared to reach a general set of observation through a narrative model. Facts and ideas in the narrative model will be used to fi nd effective components to promote social inclusion in urban renewal projects. In the systems thinking method in result chapter I will show relations between mentioned elements in systems thinking analytical method via graphical diagram in order to interpret academ- ic theories into design practice in the discussion chapter. Here, ur- ban policy, gentrifi cation and public interaction are the main themes which will show how social inclusion could be promoted in urban climate adaptation through more integrated adaptation to climate change strategies. 3 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 1.2. Climate Change in Sweden Climate change has been recognized as one of the main barriers to sustainable development. This process is progressing rapidly accord- ing to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007). The ongoing trend of climate change will continue even if green house gas (GHG) mitigation policy as the main feature around the globe would be successful (EU, 2007; Swedish climate policy), i.e., the EU climate strategy has aimed to restrict global av- erage temperature to no more than 2°C above the pre-industrial level (European Council, 2007). Besides, non European countries are in need of a major emission reductions to reach the target. Therefore it seems that more efforts are needed to be prepared for more substan- tial changes in temperature than in the target for the mitigation policy (Climate Adaptation in Sweden, FOI, 2009). The Swedish Government appointed the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability in June 2005 to assess global climate change impact regionally and locally on the Swedish society includ- ing costs. Effects of climate change are expected to be signifi cant in Sweden due to the increase of temperature by 3-5°C by 2080 com- pared with the mean level recorded along the period 1961-1990 (Cli 1.1. Background In this chapter, the importance of adaptation to climate change in Sweden will be discussed (Chapter 1.2.), with focus on coastal areas of Gothenburg (Chapter 1.3.) and Frihamnen as a former inner port in this city (Chapter 1.4.). Moreover, the Göta River dynamics and the security margin for important infrastructures will be discussed (Chapter 1.5.). Substantially, the effects of the three strategies of ad- aptation to climate change on the areas’ sustainable development will be reviewed (Chapter 1.6.) in order to approach more understanding of development process effects on societies. Besides, fi ve contiguous strategies based on continuum of sustainability fundamental aspects have been brought out by the focus group to become able to analyse and assess the results of the transdisciplinary study for the develop- ment of Frihamnen (Chapter 1.6.). Finally, the research questions of this thesis will be described (Chapter 1.7.). 4 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 mate Adaptation in Sweden, FOI, 2009) and extra precipitation and higher sea levels are also expected. Sea level is estimated to rise ap- proximately up to 0.8m (UN’s Climate Panel) depending on sea tem- perature increases. Precipitation will increase in most parts of the country during autumn, winter and spring; however, in summer-time the climate will be warmer and drier especially in southern Sweden. Sea levels are estimated to rise by up to 0.2 metres in the seas ad- joining Sweden. These measures are calculated based on both aver- age wind and maximum gusts (SGOR, 2007). Climate change can be considered in normal planning activity due to the efforts have been made at national level in Sweden to change regulations. Regarding physical planning which have been changed regulations, new build- ings should place on land suitable for that purpose regarding to ac- cidents, fl ooding and erosion (FOI, 2009). Developing methods and planning instruments for the above mentioned changes have been assigned to the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning. The most important documents for climate adaptation are the com- prehensive plans revised on an area-specifi c basis by local authorities in Sweden which has formed the basis for physical planning in the country. Several local authorities have changed the recommendations to suit their planning activities for foundation laying. Both govern- ment and private actors play an important role in creating a network that’s primary role is to deal with climate change (FOI, 2009). 5 1.3. Gothenburg Gothenburg is the second largest city in Sweden. The city has a popu- lation of 549,839 inhabitants in urban area (Statistiska centralbyrån, SCB, 2005-2010). Gothenburg has a mild climate and quite a lot of rain caused by the Gulf Stream.The city is placed along the Göta River and the harbour where the construction of industrial areas are planned to take place. It is the second largest industrial city in Swe- den after Stockholm and the manufacturing sector contributes over 20 percent of all jobs. Gothenburg is also a signifi cant commercial and maritime city, including the largest port in Nordic Countries; fi - nancial activities, educational, research sectors and food industries. Gothenburg is the hub of west Sweden's road and rail network and also has car ferry and passenger boat to Denmark, Norway, Britain and Germany. The city has also two airports and the collective inner- city traffi c uses trams (Swedish National Encyclopedia, 2011). Gothenburg is located on the west coast, in south western Sweden, An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 STOCKHOLM OSLO GÖTEBORG MALMÖ COPENHAGEN Figure 1. Gothenburg location between Scandinavian capital cities 6 approximately half way between the capitals Copenhagen, Denmark and Oslo, Norway (See Fig. 1). This city has grown as a trading city because of locating at the mouth of the river Göta. The industrialisation of the 19th century sparked Gothenburg’s ship- yard era. In the 20th century, three of the world’s biggest shipyards grew up on the north bank in Gothenburg: Götaverken, Lindholmen and Eriksberg. In the same period, Gothenburg became the most vi- tal port in Scandinavia. Götaverken was threatened with bankruptcy as early as 1970, but nothing happened until 1975, when the Gov- ernment took ownership of the company and began to commit mass lay-offs. In 1977 a state-owned company called Svenska Varv was founded and eventually took over all the shipyards’ assets and prob- lems. A large area of central Göteborg was gradually emptied of all activites. The two largest landowners, the City of Gothenburg and Svenska Varv AB, started a joint project aiming to develop visions for the renewal of the area. Gradually the idea of the Friendly City evolved a place where business, residences, education, commerce, research, culture and recreation merged in a fruitful blend (Ander, H., et al, 2009) The city expanded over low reed areas, some of the canals were fi lled in and the harbours and quays were extended. These low fi lling areas are now in focus for renewing the City. Earlier brown fi eld areas are transformed to a modern City. There are also geotechnical problems for development in areas with unstable clays. At the same time, mak- ing the City secure against higher future sea levels is another chal- lenge which is expected to be addressed by planning and building An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 7 Figure 2. The proposed bridges on Göta River, Source: http:// gbg.yimby.se/ new areas (Moback, 2009). In the developed plan of Gothenburg, in Centrala Älvstaden strate- gies it is expected that people’s access to Göta River become easier and mainland of the city join to Hisingen (See Fig. 2); so the cen- tral area will be bigger and nicer. Frihamnen’s central location opens opportunities to reduce the need for vehicle crossing over the river. Pedestrian and bicycle traffi c will improve and Frihamnen could be seen as part of the city centre. Transportation between Frihamnen and Lilla Bommen can be easier by shuttle ferry or bridges. In the long term plan 40,000 new jobs and 30,000 new inhabitants envisage in Centrala Älvstaden includes Frihamnen, Ringön, B ackaplan and Gullbergsvas. (City of Gothenburg, 2009) In the frame of River City workshop, researchers and practitioners in different international groups have cooperated with the municipality of Gothenburg (June 2011), they worked out a proposal for a vision for Central Älvstaden. Groups' proposals will be part of the vision and strategies for Central Älvstaden that the municipal council takes decisions in 2012. Frihamnen is one of the districts along the Göta river which is the case of this thesis. 1.4. Frihamnen Frihamnen is inner harbour of Gothenburg which is located in the north side of the river Göta in Hisingen Island opposite the city centre and nearly below the Gota Älvbron. It consists of three basins and three piers: South Frihamnspiren or Bananpiren, Northern Frihamnspiren An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 1 Tjärasfalt or PAH asphalt is an asphalt concrete containing coal tar. InGothenburg http://www. m i l j o s a m v e r k a n . s e / u p - l o a d / R e g i o n k a n s l i e r n a / Milj%C3%B6samverkan/Avfall/ farligtavfall_kurs0308_forroen_ massor_MiljoforvGbg.pdf 8 and Kvillepiren with an area of 104 ha. It is almost the same size as the historic core of Gothenburg. This port had been active for loading and unloading coal, timber products as described in some literature. The area was remodelled to port in the 1910s; the main activity has been general cargo handling. Before 1990s, this port has been active for unloading imported fruits and other goods. Shipping/port operations, manufacturing of plas- tic/polyester, metal fi nishing, surface treatment with varnish/paint/ adhesives and car care facility are the operations reported based on MIFO database. There are 19 berths with depths of 3 to 9m alongside (Maryland, 2010). Currently the activities that take place in these areas are automative racing, annual rock concert events and limited harbour facilities for ferries and cruisers (Morrison et al, 2011). Also, some warehouses which were transformed ones into offi ces are op- erational. Surveys of Frihamnen basin have declared low contamination levels in soil and into water. Tjärasfalt# has been found in some studies. It can cause high costs if it is found in large scale (Centrala Älvstaden, kartläggning av förorenad mark, 2011). Frihamnen is surrounded by six districts; Lindholmen, Ringön, Gull- bersgsvass, Kvillebäcken, and Brämaregården which four of these areas are former industrial and shipyards. 1.5. Göta River level rising The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) has the mission to study the Göta dynamics in particular with regard to the scenarios with high average water level in the ocean. SMHI has put together six different extreme situations which occurred in the Gothenburg region during the 1900s and so far in the 2000s and com- piled overview regarding future climate changes and their potential meaning for the Gothenburg region. The relevant weather param- eters with record levels based on available statistics are water levels in the Göta River, rainfall, snow, heat and drought, freezing rain, hail and winds. In the report of SMHI the calculation and descrip- tion of return periods are also considered and the water level in the Göta River is determined primarily by sea-level. The most serious risk of the climate change is temperature increases and consequently the sea level rise of 0.9m with a new storm similar to ‘Gudrun’2, in January 2005, on the coastal and the low-lying settlements along the 2 Hurricane Gudrun was a pow- erful hurricane in the form of a deep low pressure as the 8 to 9 January 2005 withdrew from the Atlantic and hit northern Europe (NEODAAS, 2011) An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 9 Figure 3, Sea level rising in Fri- hamnen , Source: Goteborgstad website Figure 4, Sea level rising in Fri- hamnen Source: The Gothenburg City If the sea rise with 0.5 m Security 0.5m High water +1.5 - 2m Normal +0 river in the central city (Göteborg Stadskansliet, 2006). Sea level re- corded from two local stations (Torshamnen and Klippan) shows that the mid-tide level of Gothenburg is 9.96m and the highest recorded tide levels are 11.47m and 11.65m at Torshamnen and Klippan, re- spectively (SMHI). It is assumed that Gothenburg would have the mid-tide level at 9.96-10.76m and the highest recorded tide level at 12.27-12.45m around 2100 (PSMSL, 2011). The Municipal executive board in the city of Gothenburg assigned to the commission of investigating on adaptation to climate change which is called Extreme Weather, ‘Extremt väder’, in 2004 (City of Gothenburg). According to the reports of IPCC (2007), municipal- ity of Gothenburg has increased the security level of such impor- tant infrastructure for the society resulting has increased the margin to migrate from extreme high water level from 1.5m (2003) to 2m (i.e. railroad, tunnels). During 2010, they have made a pre-study of a hydro model with the aim of connecting the sea, the rivers, the sewer network, tunnels and surface in one model in order to make better prognoses of fl ooding, testing different scenarios and inform the inhabitants. In addition, they have started to work with new water level-measurements and a web based site showing water levels. Frihamnen as a fl at and low land area is 1.1m to 2.6m over normal water level (Sepehr, 2011). The present situation of Göta Älv is that when a low pressure weather system and a high tide coincide, the wa- ter level at the quay reaches +1.8m above normal level and one of the three piers fl oods. The whole of Frihamnen area would fl ood within the next 50-75 years with a 0.5m rise in sea level (Morrison 2011). An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201110 3 http://www.mistraurbanfutures. se/english/startpage.4.15c2317a 1266994794c8000596.html 1.6. Strategies of Adaptation to climate change in Frihamnen Sweden will be faced to the effects of climate change in spite of be- ing successful to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (Mistra Urban Futures, 2010). So climate adaptation is inevitable in urban planning and city development to reduce the risks and take advantage of the opportunities of changing climate. Mistra Urban Futures3 has worked on a pilot project called ‘A City Adapted to Climate Change: Sce- narios for Future Frihamnen’. The three possible strategies are out- lined for Frihamnen for long term adaptation of coastal areas which are supposed to be faced to rising water levels. Retreat, Attack and Defend strategies are based on British report and issued by Building Futures and the Institution of Civil Engineering (ICE) in 2009 to pro- tect the area against sea level rising. The pilot project of Mistra Urban Futures examines the ways that these three adaptation strategies can be used in planning and development in Frihamnen with focus on how the district’s planned buildings can be climate adapted to rising sea and water levels. An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 11 Retreat, a controlled retreat with marshlands, strategy is planned for the areas below the level +13.8m, generally. These low-lying areas are excluded for the functions of no everyday use of people and are allowed to be fl ood. These areas can be used for temporary uses such as parks, rollerblading, cycling, ball games, skateboarding, concert and motor race events which are facilitated for basic needs of the infrastructure. The low-lying areas are not planned for residential, commercials, schools or kindergartens, tramway or railway, main streets or road, etc. (See Fig. 5, 6) Attack strategy, an active penetration of fl oating structure into the water environment, means using water rather than seeing it as a threat as it pulls away from or a problem that to protect themselves from. Water is allowed to rise, fall and surge underneath inhabitable spac- es. Regarding this strategy, buildings and infrastructures are fl oating. This is a fl exible way for city developers in recent centuries to build their constructions on existing coastlines and the possibility to con- dense city. Amphibious buildings are standing on solid grounds but fl oatable structure. High rise Residential and commercial buildings and individual small fl oating ones are allowed to be built on these fl oating structures. Extending the public transport infrastructure is planned through this fl oating system to connect the city centre to His- ingen Island and further to develop Lindholm district (Mistra Urban Futures, 2010). (See Fig. 7, 8) Figures 5, 6, Retreat Strategy Source, Gothenburg Municipal- ity Figures 7, 8, Attack Strategy Source, Gothenburg Municipal- ity Defend Strategy, a series of defensive structure, is a way to pro- tect the area from sea level rising. Different types of temporary and permanent constructions arrange preventing water to enter to the ex- isting built environment. Defend solutions have been criticized by many engineers because of costly maintenance structure, water ac- cess diffi culties, unsustainable and damaging coastal habitants (ICE). However, protecting the area by defend strategy makes investments on all the existing piers be secure. Different functions, mix of hous- es and businesses are supposed to take place in the protected area. Designing these barriers against water could develop residential and commercial spaces in the largest amount of areas in comparison with the retreat and attack strategies (Moback 2010). (See Fig. 7, 8) Figures 9, 10, Defend Strategy Source, Gothenburg Municipal- ity An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201112 Figures 11,12,13, Illustration Retreat, Attack, and Defend by SWECO, Available in Mistra Ur- ban Future Website, Annual Re- port 2010 http://www.mistraurbanfutures. se/download/18.7df4c4e812d 2da6a416800080234/Mistra+ Urban+Futures+Annual+Repo rt+2010.pdf RETREAT ATTACK DEFEND 4 Sweco is an international con- sulting engineering company that provides qualifi ed consult- ing services with high knowl- edge content. The service offer- ing covers the entire spectrum from feasibility studies, analy- ses and strategic planning to engineering, design and project management (http://en.sweco. s e / e n / e n s w e c o s e / A b o u t - Sweco/). Based on the above explained strategies, SWECO4 as one of the par- ticipant in River City workshop in Gothenburg City, spring 2011, proposed three different plans with regards to attack, defend and re- treat concepts. The allocated functional zones, residential and com- mercials are estimated for the plans and compared in this study. (See Fig. 11,12, 13) An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 13 Besides the three possible strategies for long term adaptation to ris- ing sea level for Frihamnen, the effects of suggested strategies on the economy, society and ecology are investigated in this project. Through the cooperation between Mistra Urban Futures and the Go- thenburg municipality, ecological, politico-economical and socio- cultural focus groups have worked to develop practical and scientifi c results. The practical results assessed the climate adaptation concepts of attack, defend and retreat effects on the Frihamnen area’s sustain- able development. The scientifi c results explored the confl icts of interest and confl icting objectives identifi ed during the focus group work. The politico-economical group suggested further issue about the fi - nancial benefi ts of the adaptation strategies of all stakeholders in an inner city land. They have also discussed about fairness and inter- generational equity by exploiting the area in terms of innovation and growth alone. In addition to the socio-cultural focus group discours- es provided through a dedicated social sustainability character with ideas for a socially stable, secure and equal society. Consequently, fi ve contiguous strategies based on continuum of sustainability fun- damental aspects have been brought out by the focus group to be- come able to analyse and assess the results of the transdisciplinary study for the development of Frihamnen (Morrison et al, 2011): - Consonance with Nature - Waterfront Heritage - Liveable City - Adaptation for Sustainable Building - Branding Adaptation and Sustainability 1. Consonance with nature should provide biodiversity enrichment related to human needs (Costa et al, 1997) through a varied biotype corridor within the built environment. People’s access to the valuable ecosystem raise the market value of the area (Morrison et al, 2011), but by building with long time perspective to include future genera- tions rights (Tisdal, 2001). 2. Waterfront heritage and challenges of the threat of the ocean pro- vides an adaptation strategy through an attractive cultural maritime resource (Marrison et al, 2011). The gentrifi cation promoted by this type of strategy supports middle to upper income oriented develop- ment (Bounce 2009). An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 3. Liveable city as a sustainable adaptation strategy has a strong element of social inclusion by refurbishment of urban environment based on ecosystem services and built spaces (Morrison et al, 2011). This sustainable strategy specifi es a balance of nature and social sus- tainability (Mori and Christodoulou 2011). Additionally, Dempsey et al (2009) emphasized equitable access and community sustainability as the two key aspects of social sustainability for the urban context. Frihamnen is an attractive living area through close social and eco- nomic connection to the city centre and expected to gather all gen- erations in residential area integrated with schools planned for social inclusion and integration (Morrison et al, 2011). Low energy houses, water management, innovative and knowledge intensive businesses and carbon emission reduction buildings are proposed for develop- ment of this area (helm et al 2011). 4. Adaptation for sustainable building has an emphasis on a socio- technical transition (Geels and Kemp 2007) based on new innova- tions in climate adaptation and sustainability (Morrison et al, 2011). Innovative adaptation strategies could be consisting of water and waste management, transport systems with a context specifi c request for pedestrian and bicycle access to the city over suggested bridges across Göta Älv; plus energy homes with innovative materials con- tribute to climate mitigation. 5. Branding adaptation and sustainability is a discourse provided by socio-cultural and politico-economical focus groups, through their expression based on resilience city, socio-political structure and mar- kets. A unique mix of latest ideas in climate adaptation and sustain- ability to attract successful national and international projects from elsewhere to Gothenburg is the direction of decision-makers (Morri- son et al, 2011). Sustainable development is an advantage of the city that its features are often visible through tree planting or green roofs (Basset and Shandas 2010). The diffi culty of developing sustainable city areas without turning this into a brand with which to sell the city to tourists, mobile classes and capital has discussed by Kear (2007). 1.7. Research Question Throughout the history of mankind, there has never been a time where more than half of the population of the world lives in urban 14 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 areas as they do today. This population is expected to rise upto 5 bil- lion by 2030 (UNFPA, 2007) of which two-thirds live and work in coastal areas (Hinrichsen, 1998). It is estimated that many of the large cities in the world are vulnerable to the sea level rising and climate change, with the remarkable number of people exposed to extreme fl oods and storms (Aerts et al, 2009). In many regions in the world, it is expected that the frequency, intensity and duration of precipitation will increase as well as the droughts because of the climate change. The need for adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized in cities in order to moderate the harm as a result of these alterations; however, it is a complicated issue and it is necessary to keep all op- tions open because of the uncertainty of how the future will develop and what measures will be needed (Aerts et al, 2011). In this chapter, I have explored the necessity of adaptation to climate change along the Göta River in Gothenburg as a start point of this study. Three possible strategies -retreat, defend and attack- for long term adaptation of coastal areas have been examined by Mistra Urban Futures as possible solutions for Frihamnen. This new centre where researchers and practitioners cooperate to produce innovative and ef- fective knowledge was established in January 2010 for sustainable urban development with the ambition to become a world-leader in the fi eld in the near future. It is funded by Mistra, the Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research, the Swedish International Devel- opment Cooperation Agency (SIDA), and the consortium partners. Chalmers University of Technology hosted the centre. The expression by researchers and practitioners of creating social well being by shaping the built environment for climate adaptation and sustainability underlined a need for further consideration of built innovations (Morrison et al, 2011). The incorporation of social jus- tice into the Frihamnen will be a challenge if the area becomes at- tractive and market forces prevail (Morrison et al, 2011). Although there have been quite a lot of discussion’s reports about climate ad- aptation in Frihamnen, some social effects of this issue e.g. how we can develop the area for different groups require further investigation (Näslund, 2011). The balance of nature and social sustainability in the context of sustainable adaptation strategy seems missing from current urban planning literature as evidenced by the recent review of indicators and proposals for a new City Sustainability Index (Mori and Christodoulou 2011). When I was reading reports by Mistra Ur- ban Futures and interview with Camilla Näslund5, I realized that the 15 5 Social sustainability issues and dialogue work in Central Älvst- aden, Gothenburg Municipality, 2011 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201116 incorporation of social fairness into the future of Frihamnen seems to be an opportunity as a result of current approaches to adaptation to climate change. Therefore, the research oriented objective of this research is to inquire about effective components of social inclusion to discuss: “How can social inclusion be promoted in coastal areas which are about to be adapted to climate change?” and the practice oriented question of this thesis is: “What design criteria could be recommended in order to enhance social inclusion in these areas?” During the studying of the urban renewal projects, I have developed four sub-questions to the fi rst main research question to illustrate re- lations between the effective components of social inclusion in the adapted to climate change coastal areas. Q. 1. What are the effective components of social segregation inci- dent in cities? Q. 2. What are the effective components to gentrify district? Q. 3. How are the relations of the effective components to promote social inclusion? Q. 4. What are the effects of adaptation to climate change strategies on social inclusion/social exclusion in coastal cities? I use a simple theoretical framework to make the research problem clearer and to assess employed approaches if they are feasible for interpretation of academic inputs into practice outputs. Through in- depth reviewing urban renewal cases of the districts Inner-Vesterbro in Copenhagen, Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm and HafenCity in Hamburg the research will link the knowledge and experience in these cities with Gothenburg harbour redevelopment proposals via the narrative model through facts and ideas. Furthermore, I will analyse consequences of redevelopment projects through answering ‘how’ and ‘why’ questions to defi ne effective components of systems thinking and their relations which will be used for interpreting aca- demic input (different social aspects) into practice output (propose criteria to promote social inclusion in the future plan of coastal areas which are about to adapted to climate change and specifi cally for Frihamnen) and addressing the second question of this thesis. An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 Methods 17 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201118 2. Methods In this chapter, methodologies to approach the objective of this re- search will be explained with focus on the method which has been employed for each part (Chapter 2.1). 2.1. Methodology The research design and approach are based on the main object of analysis and two main concepts. The analysis focuses on the social objects of urban development. The concepts are sustainable urban development and adaptation to climate change in coastal cities. The fi rst chapter deals with the background to the thesis and the ne- cessity of adaptation to climate change along the Göta River in Go- thenburg. Research questions are defi ned through reviewing reports by Mistra Urban Futures, Central Älvstaden and the Gothenburg City. This chapter is also supported by different identifi ed options and the proposed potential strategies by several international con- sultants through three focus groups that are called ecological, socio- cultural and politico-economical particularly in the frame of River City workshop in Gothenburg. Data about Frihamnen and its future proposals is collected through literature reviews, email interviews and observation. The literature search showed that within this part of the research, there was no established approach on how to move analytically between documents and the built environment. An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 19 Regarding the rather considerable quantity of reports and published documents about climate change adaptation, the notion of adaptation strategies and the way they might affect cities and support all parts of societies, if not neglected, of course is addresses with less focus and attention. Therefore, I will inquire about effective components of social inclusion to discuss about these questions: “How can social inclusion be promoted in coastal areas which are about to be adapted to climate change?” and “What design criteria could be recommended in order to enhance social inclusion in these areas?” To address the fi rst main research question which is aimed towards academic research I have developed a simple theoretical framework to focus on urban renewal studies and develop the research theory re- garding the importance of urban development effects on the society. Relevant literature about the development of the theory in the fi eld of adaptation to climate change in coastal cities supports this task. To translate academic research fi ndings into design practice and make the research more operational I evolved it based on case studies as developed by Robert K. Yin (1994) who states: “In general, case studies are the preferred strategy when “how” or “why” questions are being posed, when the investigator has little control over events, and when the focus is on a contemporary phenomenon within some real-life context”. Case study method was fi rst introduced into social science by Frederic Le Play in 1829. In this research, I have linked data and the aim to give an operational structure as a link between the empirical data and the assumption. Data come out from studying three urban renewal cases and use to expand and generalize theory for further analyses. Subsequently, effective components of social inclusion have been emerged through urban renewal cases -. Inner Vesterbro, Hammarby Sjöstad and HafenCity-. For further analyses and illustrating the relations between the effective components of so- cial inclusion in the adapted to climate change coastal areas I have developed four sub-questions to the fi rst main research question in the second part of this study. Q. 1. What are the effective components of social segregation inci- dent in cities? An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 Q. 2. What are the effective components to gentrify district? Q. 3. How are the relations of the effective components to promote social inclusion? Q. 4. What are the effects of adaptation to climate change strategies on social inclusion/social exclusion in coastal cities? To evaluate the effects of renewal processes in these studies, litera- ture is organized in terms of facts and ideas. Jacques Barzun and Henry Graff, in their well-known text The Modern Researcher, make this useful distinction. Facts as “a clear and distinct relation held to be so by tacit agreement” are recognised to search for the ideas as “a statement of interference or hypothesis” (Wang, 2002), i.e. facts are quantifi able and certifi able pieces of information, while ideas, even though they may be well obtained in the same ways by searching into the literature, tend to have more of illustrative or interpretative role. In this thesis, I use the ‘facts and ideas’ analytical model to explore ‘how’ and ‘why’ urban redevelopment process affects societies. In order to approach more understanding of effective components of so- cial inclusion I will study three European cities with several similari- ties with Gothenburg in the following chapter. In this research, facts and ideas integrate to generate the study report as a narration through email interviews, city observation, books, articles and cities’ web- sites. An arrow and three ellipses have formed the narrative model which has illustrated ‘how the ideas have been emerged by facts’. Ellipses which are included by different renewal effects in each city are overlapped because of showing that some facts infl uence on the other one and ideas can be consequences of some facts. In the following chapter, I use systems approach to describe an or- ganised or connected group of objects and forming the complex unity of effective components in order to interpret academic fi ndings into design criteria which is useful for e.g. planners and architects. In the systems area, relations and association between effective social com- ponents are illustrated. System theory as is undertaken in this research has used from 1940 (Flood and Jackson, 1991). The more recent defi - nition of systems theory is forwarded by John van Gigch, by arguing that a system is an aggregation of concepts, objects, and/or subjects (van Gigch, 1991). The processes within the system -transforming input into output- are also infl uenced by feedback loops (Flood and Jackson, 1991) (See Fig.14).To better understand the systems struc- ture of social exclusion/inclusion, I have illustrated them in a graphical 20 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 21 Three Case studies Hammarby Sjöstad Hafen City Inner-Vesterbro Strategies of Adaptation to climate change in Frihamnen Attack, Retreat, Defend Contiguous emergent strategies: - Consonace with Nature - Waterfront Heritage - Liveable City - Adaptation for Sustainable Building - Branding Adaptation and Sustainablity Design Criteria for Social Inclusion Analyses Figure 14. Research process diagram as a casual loop which is adopted from a fi gure in Richard- son and Pugh (1981). As it was argued above, one way to develop structure and to analyse knowledge regarding the complex relations between social compo- nents in the sustainable urban development would be to employ sys- tems theory. In this study, system dynamic approach has employed to illustrate the complexity of relevant components refl ection. The sys- tem dynamic was developed during the mid-1950s by Professor Jay Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I have used it to frame, understand and discuss the complex urban issues and problems in order to interpret academic fi ndings into design criteria. In this thesis, two systems of ‘social inclusion’ and ‘social exclu- sion’ have been defi ned to fi gure out the messy local relations of different components. To analyse and evaluate likely social effects Inputs OutputsProcesses An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201122 of adaptation in coastal areas, systems go through three contexts -gentrifi cation, public interaction and social deprivation- for further discussions in the following part. These are some contemporaryso- cial issues which are discussed for future Frihamnen in focus group -ecological, socio-cultural and politico-economical and the Forum for Studies of Contemporary Culturer seminar (Forum för Studier av Samtidskultur- FSSK5) in Gothenburg. Social exclusion as a likely consequence of urban development in the future of Frihamnen will be explained by the effective components and their relationships to promote or mitigate this phenomena in the adapted to climate change area. Also, equitable access and community components as the two key aspects of social sustainability for the urban context (Dempsey et al, 2009) will be explored through social inclusion system thinking model to illustrate relations between effective components to pro- mote this objective in the city development. In the last part of this study, results of the systems are discussed; limitations and strengths are also identifi ed to propose through impli- cation of fi ndings for the future programme of adaptation to climate change in Frihamnen. 6 FSSK (Forum for Studies of Contemporary Culture) in col- laboration with urbanum, Göte- borg City Museum hosted the conference on gentrifi cation http://www.kultur.gu.se/for- skning/FSSK An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 23 Materials & Analyses An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 3. Materials and Analyses The theoretical framework for studying urban renewal cases is ex- plained (Chapter 3.1). In order to approach more understanding of sustainable development, three urban renewal cases has been studied in Urban Studies chapter (Chapter 3.2) with focus on Inner-Vesterbro, Copenhagen renewal project (Chapter 3.2.1), Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm redevelopment (Chapter 3.2.2) and Hafan City, Hamburg (Chapter 3.2.3) through the narrative model. The fi rst research question “How can social inclusion be promoted in coastal areas which are about to be adapted to climate change?” is aimed towards academic research and the second “What design criteria could be recommended in order to enhance social inclusion in these areas?” is aimed to interpret the fi ndings into a format that is useful for e.g. planners and architects. Materials which support the background of this research are based on Gothenburg City Urban Planning documents, Mistra Urban Futures institution, Swedish Defence Research Agency and the UN’s Climate Panel. The research design has been formed with practicality in mind. There- fore, it becomes based on linking three urban cases which have been studied and the discussed strategies in focus groups for future Frih- amnen. First of all, the theoretical framework has been defi ned based on the literature and several course materials in Chalmers University and the University of Gothenburg. Then, I have reviewed literature 24 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 about the planning and development processes and the other articles which are found from scholar E-engines and some books about the three recently developed cities. I have also observed the existing situ- ation of Frihamnen in Gothenburg and Hammarby Sjöstad in Stock- holm through study excursions. To inquire about effects of renewal project of Inner-Vesterbro in Copenhagen and HafenCity in Hamburg I review comments of case studies of the districts’ redevelopment process and cities’ websites. To study the proposals of Frihamnen I have employed Mistra Urban Futures report from focus groups, the River City workshop (2011) and Centrala Älvstaden documents. I have also discussed the likely urban policies for the future Frihamnen to include all inhabitants with Camilla Näslund, Bo Aronsson and Anders Svensson in Centrala Älvstaden in Gothenburg through email interviews and telephone conversation. 3.1. Theoretical Framework I have developed a simple theoretical framework to study urban re- newal effects on three societies -Vesterbro, Hammarby Sjöstad and HafenCity in Hamburg- which are chosen for study in this research because of their similarities with Gothenburg. To develop the theoretical framework in order to translate fi ndings of academic research into design criteria, I have defi ned basic context with focus on social inclusion for this research which will be seen as the main systems’ components in the following chapter of this thesis. 3.1.1. Social exclusion: It is described as a systematic process that blocks individual or entire communities of people from rights, oppor- tunities and resources (Dr. Lynn Todman, Adler school). In another word, social exclusion is such a process that detaches groups and individuals from proper participation in social relations and institutes in normal and normative activities of the society in which they live (Middle East Youth Initiative Working Paper 2007). 3.1.2. Social Integration has been defi ned in three meanings, by different people, in the explanation of United Nations Research In- stitute for Social Development (1994). For some, it implies equal op- portunities and rights for all people. It is the explanation that I have employed in this thesis. Others see it as becoming more integrated as 25 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 a means to improve life chances. However, there are some who feel that increasing integration by enforcing uniformity has a negative undertone. A third group of people’s opinion do not involve either a positive or negative stance. (UNRISD, 1994). 3.1.3. Gentrifi cation is a term for the changes in culture and char- acter of a district by wealthier people (Keating, 2003), who arrive in an existing urban area and increase properties’ value and improve neighbourhoods’ relation (Freeman, 2008). Consequences of gentri- fi cation are not almost positive and their impacts could damage social integration of inhabitants. Irvin Allen, a sociology professor at the University of Connecticut, claims that the heterogeneous city spon- sors cultural advantages for both single persons and families with children. In a gentrifi ed district the low income groups are vulner- able to the effects of gentrifi cation primarily because of the lack of the knowledge which is necessary to recognize the phenomenon in its wake, and the lack of the unity needed to confront it. It can make residents disabled from coming together and rectifying issues within their own community (Ebenezer, 2011). 3.1.4. Anti-social behaviour is a behaviour that shows disregard to others’ concerns and damages society (Berger 2003). This term is interpreted differently related to the region and defi ned law for that area. 3.1.5. Liveability is defi ned by Webster dictionary as “suitability for human living”. Standard of living is assessed by comfortability of city which consists of goods and services like health care, educa- tion, telecommunication facilities, clean water, houses, cost of living, foods, etc. Trust is correlated with objective liveability and subjective satisfaction with city (Okulicz-Kozaryn 2011) which has infl uence on economic development, trade, entrepreneurship and stock mar- ket participation (knack and keefer 1997; Guiso et al.2006). City ap- pearance, beauty of streets, sport facilities, outdoor recreation, green spaces, public spaces and so forth are indicators of satisfaction in some studies about measurement of quality of life. Furthermore, the Economist presents their components of liveability in 2011 as cost of living, public transport and roads, safety and security, besides culture and nightlife. Cities have their own personalities and are comparable 26 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 with character of people who are willing to live there to know if it is suitable for them. Feeling, perception and subjective values are con- nected to the quality of life (Senlier et al. 2009). 3.1.6. Social deprivation is reduction or prevention of normal in- teraction between an individual and the rest of the society. Multiple deprivation prevents individuals or groups to participate in the eco- nomic, political and social life of the area that they live there. Low income groups are mostly vulnerable group in a changing situation. Low socioeconomic status, poor education, lack of political freedom or basic capabilities such as mental illness may cause social depriva- tion in societies. 3. 2. Urban Studies Cities play an important role in the climate adaptation process be- cause of developing the ability to adapt constantly to change and attract economic activities and investments. Today adaptation to climate change is an additional challenge that needs city planning, investments and regulations. Since many cities are growing interests in sharing and exchanging experience and knowledge, three cities redevelopment processes and social consequences of these processes are studied in this research to translate academic research fi ndings “How can social inclusion be promoted in coastal areas which are about to be adapted to climate change?” into design practice “What design criteria could be recommended in order to enhance social in- clusion in these areas?” and make the research more operational. I evolved my studies based on case studies to answer “how” or “why” questions. A narrative model consists of ‘facts’ and ‘ideas’ is also em- ployed in this chapter to emerge effective components of social inclu- sion/exclusion through each urban renewal cases. Moreover, I have developed four sub-question to the fi rst main question to analyse and illustrate the relations between the effective components of social in- clusion/exclusion in the adapted to climate change coastal areas. Q. 1. What are the effective components of social segregation inci- dent in cities? Q. 2. What are the effective components to gentrify district? Q. 3. How are the relations of the effective components to promote social inclusion? 27 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201128 Q. 4. What are the effects of adaptation to climate change strategies on social inclusion/social exclusion in coastal cities? Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm and Inner Vesterbro in Copehagen as two Scandinavian planning projects which are mostly residential zones have been reviewed as well as HafenCity in Hamburg, Ger- many which is a large port with similar functions to Frihamnen as an inner city port and an important commercial coastal area in North Europe. 3.2.1. Inner Vesterbro, Copenhagen It is an example of infl uences of renewing Vesterbro in Copenhagen individually and the city as a society. Vesterbro, a district near down town of the capital city of Denmark, located west of the city centre at the location of the old Western Gate ‘’Vesterport’’, is targeted for revitalization. This process was a grant of government to rehabilitate old tenement buildings and local residents were helpful in drafting plans (Walljasper, 2001). Originally, this district has been inhabited by immigrants from countryside and latterly from the other countries. Working class people have been the majority of this area’s residents in the late 19th and early 20th centuries where it was notorious for drug trade and being traditionally red-light district of Copenhagen. Revitalization of Inner Vesterbro has become the objective project for both local and central governmental of the Danish state. “The past 20 years of changes in Danish urban politics have involved three intertwined tendencies. First, urban political priori- ties have moved from an agenda of redistribution to an agenda of growth. Secondly, urban politics has shifted perspective from pre- dominantly ‘inward’ looking to a more ‘outward’ looking approach. Figure 15. Vesterbro Passage Source: Unknown An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 29 And thirdly, private enterprise is to a greater extent included in deci- sion making, while the public sector has embraced entrepreneurial forms of organisation and behaviour.” (Larsen and Hansen, 2008, p. 5) Increase of attractiveness for international investments in Copenha- gen in comparison with Stockholm, Hamburg, Berlin and Malmö was expected. Motorway, local railway, cross-border infrastructure and symbolic architecture works have been invested in Copenhagen. Furthermore, luxury hotels, shops, houses and renewal of inner city were added to the infrastructure development. Holger Bisgaard, the municipal head of Copenhagen expresses on changing the housing policy and attracts middle classes to stay in Copenhagen. It is the key for the city development and if not it would not be a sustainable work (2001). Inner Vesterbro was a meat market and it is still a food market now. The old abattoirs have been transformed for cultural purposes. This district was known for porn shops, drug pushers and users, bars and restaurants. Population of Vesterbro was about 2000 in 19th and it increased rapidly form 65000 to 85000 in 1920s. This area has accommodat- ed 36,000 inhabitants in renewal houses now (Larsen and Hansen, 2008). (See Fig 16) The renewal project was planned to be implemented for two to four blocks per year based on dwelling-hygienic, social consider- ation and inhabitants’ involvement in all processes of revitalization from planning to implementation. The social problems of the area Figure 16 The Inner Vesterbro Urban renewal area, download from usj.sagepub.com at Royal Institute of Technology, 2011 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201130 based on Copenhagen Municipality declaration were the 20 to 30 year old long term unemployment and the younger of those receiving pension for social and medical reasons, the prostitutes, the mentally ill and the immigrants (1990). The aim of the project was to keep the majority of dwellings suitable for singles, couples without children and families (See Fig 17). The rent of houses in the district rises because of urban renewal project but it was estimated that reduc- tion of heating expenses and individual rebates could balance these increases. However, the attraction of the district decreased because of diffi culties affording the rent for smaller group of socially and economically weak tenants. There were controversial discussions in Copenhagen Council to defi ne a rent ceiling. It was a compromis- ing attempt by the city council to introduce a defl ecting mechanism beyond the rent rebates by law in the urban renewal. This plan has addressed many deprivations and social exclusion in the district af- ter years despite that creating young and elderly friendly housing was in the policy paper of the city council to attract those popula- tion groups that were underrepresented in the district to stay there (Copenhagen Municipality, 1990). Increases high and middle sal- ary of wage earners and employment rate and in the other hand the unemployment drops between 1997 and 2005 shows that upgrading Vesterbro as an upward urban project was successful. (See Table 1). Very few houses demolished but the old tenements presented them- selves with refreshed facades, solar panels and gardens. All fl ats are facilitated by the district heating system and are furnished with toilets. Urban life of Vestrebro became modernised; working class pubs became replaced by upmarket restaurants, cafes and wine bars. Figure 17. Housing in Vesterbro, 2008 Source: wikimedia Table 1. Age and standard of ba- sic amenities in pre-renewal In- ner Vesterbro housing, 1989 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 31 This project policy originates at social dimensions and middle class gentrifi cation accompanies to urban renewal process. 20 percent un- employment in pre-renewal Vesterbro dropped to 12 percent by 1997 and reduced to affect 5 percent of the working age population in 2005 (SeeTable 2). General Danish economy recovery since the mid 1990s was related to this dramatic drop. Statistics of employment, educa- tion and salary show the achievement of the city project goal in terms of ‘social uplift’ (Larsen and Hansen, 2008, p. 15). Number of immi- grants who had been living in Vesterbro decreased to a lower range of the average of Denmark. These show that gentrifi cation has traumatic consequences for the individual and the city society. Rents were increased due to renovation costs in Vesterbro by ap- proximately 50 percent since the renewal process (Henriksen, 2002; Copenhagen Municipality, 2005b). The plan provides ceiling rent to facilitate the gentrifi cation gently. In the short term, pre-renewal in Table 2. Socioeconomic changes in Inner Vesterbro, 1997–2005 (percentage of the total popula- tion aged 16–66) Downloaded from usj.sagepun. com at Royal Institute of Tech- nology An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201132 habitants afford to stay in the area; however, in long term, some of them had to move because of higher rent and inability of paying for it. There is no clear data of the movements due to non-registered new addresses of some of the people who were forced to move (Lund Hansen, 2003). In some cases the gradually increasing rent affects socioeconomic vulnerable groups in a very traumatic way (Lentz, 2002). Traditionally, the housing stock in Vesterbro has been charac- terized by private rental rather than owner occupied housing. After 1997, the dominant ownership of Inner Vesterbro housing has be- come co-operative as in between rental and owner occupied housing with exemption from property taxes and favorable state-guaranteed loans, tenants have acquired inexpensive housing (Larsen and Han- sen, 2008). The price gap between owner-occupied and co-operative fl ats is rapidly closing (Erhvervs- og Byggestyrelsen, 2006) due to sharing mortgage owned by members has legalized by government. These shares were lower than the potential market price. Co-opera- tive price increased six-folds over eight years, in this way (Copenha- gen Municipality, 2008). The consequence of this market plan of co- operative housing was rather enriching the existing inhabitants and preventing dwellers to become dislocation. Co-operative mechanism gently but highly effectively lends a hand to middle class gentrifi ca- tion in the district (Larsen and Hansen, 2008). The renewal of Inner Vesterbro municipality’s policy has aimed to keep the existing inhabitants and social uplift through an infl ux of stronger socioeconomic groups. This plan on building renovation has direct infl uence on marked shifts of the district of residents’ so- cial status in terms of key indicators such as education, income and unemployment which have lifted the district close or above to the average of Copenhagen. Culture has an impact on the process of gen- trifi cation as well as urban policies (Larsen and Hansen, 2008). This environment transformation has similar trend to the building stock. Statistics are issued by the Copenhagen municipality shows social uplift and the population of the district that become sustainable in the more straightforward economic terms by the adopted housing policy. Finding of this study are based on the defi ned theoretical framework which has been focused on social inclusion. It follows in a narrative model (See Fig. 18) An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 33 Figure 18. Facts and Ideas in re- lation to searching for the ideas that explain gentrifi cation conse- quences in Inner-Vesterbro, Co- penhagen The Narrative Model After dia- gram of Wang, 2002 FACT FACT FACT FACT Attractiveness for international investment in- creased. IDEAS How did international attrac- tiveness rise? 1- Motorway and local rail- waydevelopment 2- cross-border infrastruc- ture 3- symbolic architecture works Dominant users of apartments, res- taurants and new business Rent of houses rise. IDEAS How did people perception of the notorious district change? 1- luxury hotels 2-shops and new trades except drug trade 3- new hygienic houses 4- middle class people What was the reason of rents ex- pand? -renewing houses IDEAS What was the consequence of rental increases? -Decrease of attractiveness for living in the district because of the diffi culties to afford the rent for smaller group of socially and economically weak tenants Why social exclusion has been occured in the district? - Rental increases Attractiveness for living in the district decreased. Social exclusion and deprivation occured. FACT Findings from Inner Vesterbro renewal project The most effective components of environmental transformation of Inner-Vesterbro which have been defi ned in the primarily programme of urban renewal project are: -culture -urban policy -residents’ participation in planning and implementation of the renewal project -new regulation of ownership -increase of attractiveness for international investments An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201134 -infrastructure development for e.g. motorway, local railway and symbolic architecture work -luxury facilities for tourists -renew houses -attract middle class inhabitants to stay in the district Consequences of the Inner-Vesterbro renewal process on the society of the district which are shown as facts in narrative model are: -traumatic gentrifi cation -social exclusion -social deprivation -replacement of low-income groups and decrease of attractiveness to live in the district -safe circumstance -increase of international businesses Ideas in this model are discussed about the reason of renewal proj- ect effects or how it occurs in Inner-Vesterbro. As it is shown in the narrative model, gentrifi cation has traumatic consequences for indi- viduals and the city despite the municipality’s aim to gentrifying the district gently.7 The ensuing transition from rental to privately owned fl ats simultaneously with the major renovation of the built en- vironment would impose a change in population (Lund Hansen et al, 2001). Many deprivation and social exclusion have been addressed in this plan regardless of creating young and elderly housings in the policy paper of the city council. Middle-class inhabitants are now re- placing the socioeconomically vulnerable people who characterized Inner Vesterbro before the urban renewal. Finally, Inner-Vesterbro is a secure district, ethnic restaurants and shops contribute to the eco- nomic values generated by gentrifi cation (Lund Hansen et al, 2001). 3.2.2. Hammarby Sjöstad “Hammarby Sjöstad is the largest urban development project that Stockholm has seen for many years. “ (Örjan Svane, 2008, p. 1) Hammarby Sjöstad is a transformation urban project in a former in- dustrial brown fi eld area around Hammarby Lake in Stockholm, Swe- den adjacent to the downtown, which is one of the biggest ventures in Europe (Vestbro, D., U.). It is the best example of implemented 7 Henrik Gutzon Larsen and An- ders Lund Hansen, 2008, Gentri- fi cation—Gentle or Traumatic? Urban Renewal Policies and So- cioeconomic Transformations in Copenhagen An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 35 sustainable urbanism in the world (Beatley, 2000). The project Hen- rik Gutzon Larsen and Anders Lund Hansen, 2008, Gentrifi cation— Gentle or Traumatic? Urban Renewal Policies and Socioeconomic Transformations in Copenhagen planned to be completed in 2012 in 200 hectares and will accomodate approximately 30,000 people in 9,000 new apartments. It comprises also 400,000 sqm of new fl oor area for businesses; new canal and quays, a water-lock, several bridg- es and a tramway. Furthermore, this district provides a wide range of educational, cultural and recreational programmes (Dastur, 2005). The sustainable development plan for Hammarby Sjöstad was a part of far-reaching environmental programme of the 1996 Stockholm bid for Olympics 2004. However, after that Sweden did not win the bid, the municipality concentrated on accomplishment of the sustainable industrial waterfront redevelopment project. The strategies expected for the Hammarby Sjöstad which all eleven phases of it, are about to become completed in 2012; environment, functions, neighbourhood and governmental policies of properties in Swedish context are comparable to Frihamnen area in Gothenburg. So, an identifi cation of elements, both supportive and hindering, to the achievement of visions and aims of the Hammarby Sjöstad pro- gramme is valuable in further discussions of Frihamnen future plan. In order to understand to what extent the sustainable urban planning of Hammarby Sjöstad reaches social comprehensive aims which were defi ned as a goal of project, a qualitative case study based on ‘how’ and ‘why’ was used for this study These questions were devel- oped in cooperation with key urban policies involved in the planning and redevelopment of the district with studying literature and later discussed with a local planner in the city of Stockholm and a study excursion. To discuss about the consequences of development in Hammarby Sjöstad, I have interviewed via email and telephone con- versation with Björn Cederquist, architect, and Malena Karlsson, in- formation offi cer in GlashusEtt in Stockholm. In addition, I skimmed real states’ papers and some statistics8 issued by those organizations and the city of Stockholm for some comparison data which are com- ing in the facts part of the material analysis. Background: After the First World War, south part of Hammarby Lake started to develop for industrial activities. In 1917 when the City of Stockholm bought the land, construction of it launched with blasting a canal through the mountain of Danvik, so making the area 8 http://www.usk.stockholm.se/ internet/omrfakta/tabellappl.asp ?omrade=sdo12&appl=Omrade sjmf&resultat=Antal, November 2011 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201136 Figure 19, Pre-industrial use Figure 20, Industrial use Sourse: Unknown accessible for long distance transport by connecting it to Baltic Sea. Previously, the south shore was a meadow and wood where workers from Södermalm in north part of the lake used it for picnic. An attrac- tive pavilion, an artist’s collective and farm was also there (Bodén 2001; 2002). The US car producer General Motors was one of the fi rst factories built in this area to use the facilities and opened a sale offi ce there. Luma bulb factory was built on a small hill along the southern shore in the end of 1920s. Rail lines were built to facilitate the area to booster such these heavy industries (Vestbro 2005). Small and large-scale industries integrated with offi ce buildings and harbor activities were located in the major part of the Hammarby Harbour. Informal small-scale activities developed in the peninsula of Lugnet which some of them were semi-legal or illegal. This area has been heavily polluted since toxic substances were dumped into the ground or the water, (Bodén 2001; 2002) (See Fig 21). Urban Policy: A strong demand for housing in Stockholm in- creased dramatically and economic boom, in the early 1990s, led to redevelop Hammarby Sjöstad as part of the build inward strategy (Dastur, 2005) instead of promoting further urban sprawl and en- croachment of green spaces (Stadsbyggnadskontoret, 2000; Inghe- Hagström, 2003). This area considered by planners as an unattractive place in several ways because of noise, heavy car traffi c and rapid economic changes; however, it was attractive for residential purposes because of being adjacent to city centre. When this plan started to Figure 21. An odd industrial area. Lugnet. March 1997. Source: Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm City An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 37 Figure 22, Bird view Source: City of Stockholm work out for the residential purposes, most of the businesses in Ham- marby Sjöstad were active. Nevertheless, keeping the small portion of industrial activities and developing houses were decided. The city of Stockholm paid compensation far above the market price to the companies that threatened to appeal against expropriation decisions of demolition their contract. The city of Stockholm owned most of the land. The fact of soil and water pollution in some parts was con- sidered as a good reason to effectively treat the contaminated soil and remove the toxic substances in spite of seeing it as a big obstacle (Vestbro, 2005). All the politicians in Social-Democrats, Moderate, Liberals, Left Party, Green, Christian Democrats, the Centre Party and the Local Stockholm party in Stockholm have some components of green poli- cies and they may enforce a greener policy than the election results justify (Vestbro, 2005). The Swedish suburbs which consist largely of big blocks of fl ats (mil- lion homes programme 1965-1975) were considered as anti-urban. The idea about urban revival gained momentum with the downfall of classical modernism as a leading town planning doctrine (Vestbro 1998, Andersson 1997, Magnuson 2004, Bodén 2004). At the time of planning Hammarby Sjöstad all the parties supported traditional ur- ban qualities such as combination of squares, narrow streets, services, workplaces and housing (Vestbro, 2005) (See Fig. 22). The mixture An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201138 of commercial, residential and workplace is expected to provide for lively street and around the clock uses which is in order to comprise elements of crime prevention. This pattern became the prominent in further debates so much because of women’s safety to compare with the crime level. Another important motive behind the inner city idea is creating high physical density in turns accommodate more people per hectares. The average number of inhabitants in Hammarby Sjös- tad is 133 per hectare which is higher than the suburban perimeter blocks (34 inh/ha) and lower than the old inner city blocks (163-273 inh/ha) (Magnuson 2004). Desire for water view and gain sunshine in apartments and courtyards is important urban factors which made a confl ict. In Hammarby Sjöstad six or seven story blocks built which means fewer hours of sunshine in children’s playgrounds (Vestbro, 2005). Along the plan for combination of services and houses blocks, Sickla shopping centre in Nacka municipality just outside Hammarby Sjös- tad has developed. This centre with low prices and variety of goods and services has affected on the use of the local shops in neighboring district. It also expected to constitute a threat to the idea of limited car use. The other controversial issue between left and right parties is land ownership in Stockholm. After 1998, the land portion allocated to municipal housing companies have reduced from 40 to 18 percent, while the condominium percentage increased to 82 percent. How- ever, selling advertised condominium and therefore planned condo- minium converted to rental because of changes in real estate market which were causes of diffi culties for selling those. The red-green ma- jority policy allocated 50 percent of lands to companies with rental tenure to make facilities to build new houses affordable for people who cannot pay big loans. In practice plan, phases 4 and 5 have got almost 100 percent rental accommodation (Magnusson 2004). Rapidly raising construction costs and the gradual removal of hous- ing subsidies since the 1980s obstructed the aim to avoid social seg- regation in Hammarby Sjöstad9. The student housing construction subsidies and the integration of several group apartments for those who have mental disabilities was an effort to counteract social seg- regation. Creating some new cheap houses is also another attempt by red-green coalition in this regard; furthermore, they have planned for more public services like schools, daycare centres and a library (Magnusson 2004). 9 Apartments built during the fi rst phase were sold for SEK 8,000 per sqm, while those sold later were costing up to 30,000 per sqm (SEK 2.7 million for a 2-bedroomfl at of 90 sqm) (Wærn, 2003) An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 39 Figure 23, Conserving nature and creating new green public spaces Source: Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm City Environmental vision: The government at the time of making decision, in 1995, about Hammarby Sjöstad development was red- green coalition that sets a high environmental ambitious programme to reduce half of the amount of emissions (See Fig. 23). Creating an environmental friendly district as an international model of sustain- able development was set out by the City of Stockholm. “It is the expressed objective of the city that this project serves as a model to other large-scale sustainability projects – and the systems, technolo- gies and processes used in this case are being considered for their contributive value to re-planning and retrofi tting other city areas” (Dastur, 2005, p.10). Hammarby Sjöstad as the largest redevelopment project in Sweden is conceptually based on the UN’s Agenda 21 Human Settlement Ob- jective 7.5; it has been adapted at the Swedish national scale to help guide sustainable development on social, cultural, economic and en- vironmental terms. In 2002, Swedish Ministry of the Environment has created The Eight Core Strategies for achieving sustainability. “It is focused on the future, limitations on climate change, popula- tion and public health, social cohesion, welfare and security, employ- ment, economic growth and competitiveness, and community devel- opment.” The environmental goals of Hammarby Sjöstad which were debated by politicians were such as preservation of valuable natural features of the area, existing green corridors and recreation new green spaces; decontamination soil and removal toxic substances on land and in the water, reuse the previously underuse lands, building at high den- sity which was highly affected by the idea of “compact city” and reduce car uses. These purposes are moreover followed by provision for public transport, noise reduction along big traffi c routs, environ- ment friendly building materials, recycling programme for water and waste. Finally, an environmental education centre which is open for public established to promote sustainable lifestyle10. However, people moved to Hammarby Sjöstad because of living in an attractive area, close to the city centre and easy accessible to nature with interesting view of water landscape (See Fig. 24). An interview study in 2001 showed appreciation of inhabitants for environmental facilities in the district but they prefer their comfort ability rather than achievement of environmental goals (Axelsson, Delefors, Söderström 2001; Mag- nusson 2004). In Hammarby Sjöstad, more apartments are designed oversized in relation to functional requirements (See Fig. 25). 10 http://hammarbysjostad.se/, November 2011 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201140 “In this sense the Hammarby Model cannot be said to fulfi ll high environmental standards.” (Vesterbro, 2005, p. 9). Findings of Ham- marby Sjöstad study are based on the defi ned theoretical framework which has been focused on social inclusion. It follows in a narrative model (See Fig. 26) Findings for Hammarby Sjöstad Sustainable Development I have found in literature and during an excursion in the district that Hammarby Sjöstad has become an attractive place because of the proximity of the district to the city centre of Stockholm and the ar- chitecture. However, some of the operational goals of the programme has not achieved so far. Figure 24. Lanscape Source: Author, 2011 Figure 25. Oversized Apartment with large windows Source: Author, 2011 Figure 26. Facts and Ideas in re- lation to searching for the ideas that explain sustainable urban development in Hammarby Sjös- tad in Stockholm. The Narrative Model After diagram of Wang, 2002 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 41 FACT FACTFACT FACT At the time of planning Hammar- by Sjöstad all the parties supported traditional urban qualities. IDEAS Which elements of traditional urban quality were supported by all politician parties in the district planning? - Creating a mixture of com- mercial, residential and work places -High physical density area in turns accommodate more people per hectares Which quality of this kind of urban design was considered by the decision makers? -Providing lively street to comprise elements of crime prevention -Women’s safety to compare with the crime level What is the reason why the aim of providing services by combination of shops and houses in the district has not achieved? -Because of the short distance from the inner city and a large mall in ten minutes south of the area which are competing with the retail stores The aim to avoid social segregation in Hammarby Sjös- tad has obstructed. Rent of houses has rised. IDEAS Why social segregation has oc- curred in the district? 1- Rapidly raising construction costs in inner-Stockholm 2- Gradual removal of housing subsidies since 1980s 3- Lack of enough rental apart- ments because developers are not interested to invest on rental prop- erties anymore What was the effort of politicians and planners to counteract social segregation? 1- Student housing construction subsidies 2- Integration of several group apartments for those who have mental disabilities 3- Building some new cheap houses 4-Planning more public services like schools, daycare centres and library and elderly nursing 5- Building +55 apartments1 for group living 1Apartments for those who are older than 55 The majority of inhabitants is upper middle-class. FACT Lack of enough customer for retails in the district. IDEAS What has been the reason why properties’ rents expanded? - Demand for housing in Stock- holm, especially in the centre, has rised. - Economic boomed in 1990s - Desire for having water view increased. -Houses quality and good land- scape Why has been the district gentri- fi ed? - Attractive high quality apart- ments for upper middle class resi- dents - 50 percent of lands allocated to companies with rental tenure to make facilities to build new hous- es affordable for people who can- not pay big loans An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201142 The most effective components of urban renewal project of Ham- marby Sjöstad are: -Widening variety of activities -densely populated area -rental accommodation -student housing construction subsidies -afforable places to live -public services like schools, daycare centres and libraries Consequences of the Hammarby Sjöstad renewal project on the so- ciety of the district which are shown as facts in narrative model are: -traditional urban qualities and mix of different activities -social segregation -gentrifi cation -rental increase Ideas in this model are discussed about the reason of renewal project effects or how it occurs in Hammarby Sjöstad. As it is discussed in the narrative model, the high density urban planning of Hammar- by Sjöstad promotes social interaction and cultural enrichment as well as architectural and urban elements such as Gunilla Bandolin sculpture (See Fig. 27) at Sickla canal that provides silence for the dwellers to be away from the fast pace of surrounding city life (See Fig. 28). Although, the aim of combining local shops and houses to provide services in the district and reduce transportations because of shopping has not attained due to the short distance from the inner city and a large mall in ten minutes south of the area which are competing with the retail stores. It seems that lack of enough customers in the local area is the cause of lots of changes in the ownership of shops in short term. On the other hand, Parking space standard as other concerns of Hammarby Sjöstad set 0.7 per household which is equal with the number of cars that people use currently (Cederquist, 2011, Letter interview) probably as a result of proper public transport in the district and in connection with the city transportation system. Last but not least, the desired goal of Hammarby Sjöstad to achieve a ratio of 50 percent rentals to ownership apartments has not been achieved yet. Likewise, the value of rental apartments is lower than the others. For instance, rental apartments do not have direct view to the water (CABE, 2007). Nonetheless, Hammarby Sjöstad is at- tempting to counteract social segregation by constructing subsidies student housing and group homes for the mentally challenging peo- ple. In addition, Björn Cederquist the local planner in the Stockholm Figure 27, 28, 29, 30. Lanscape of Hammarby Sjöstad Source: Author, 2011 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 43 City declared that population of the residents is upper middle-class and their incomes are well above the city average level with the most well situated area in the centre; the proportion of unemployment is lower than the half of the Stockholm average (2011). 3.2.3. HafenCity, Hamburg Hamburg as the second largest city in Germany with 1.8 million in- habitants is located in northern Germany by the river Elbe. The city has one of the largest container ports in Europe with the highest GPD per capita in the EU (UNECE, 2010). Historically, Hamburg’s econo- my is based on the port, trade, industry and associated manufacturing and fi nance (Grossmann, 2005). Hamburg is divided into two zones, designated “Inner City” and “Outer City” (Friedrichs, 2007). The port of Hamburg is one of the largest attractions of city for living, industrial and logistics centre. The harbour consists of ship museum, fl oating church, bars, restaurants, theatre and hotels as a backdrop for modern culture and history. In order to revive the core city, revitalize abandoned port areas and address social polarization, Hamburg is involved with a large-scale city-renewal and –development projects (Grossmann, 2005; Zukunftsrat, Stadt, Entwicklung, 2002). In recent decade, the interrelatedness of economic, societal and po- litical change has been gained in project of urban renewal in Western countries (Dekker, Kempen, 2002; Carmon, 1999) which is reviewed in this study. With the intention of understand the “how” renewal changes of adaptation to climate change in Hamburg affect on social integration of inhabitants. Background: After World War II, trends for houses increased rap- idly and many areas in West Germany were planned for large public housing. In 1971, the federal parliament enacted Urban Improve- ment Act (Studtebaufi irderungsgesefz) to change policies and speci- fi ed regulations for urban renewal. Local jurisdiction established a renewal area and a social plan for residents to receive the federal grant. Citizens participated in both processes (Einem 1982; Gewos 1982). The local jurisdiction has three typical goals consist of im- proving housing conditions for lower class residents of the inner city, attract middle and upper class people to inner city housing areas and improve the infrustructure of those areas (Prognos 1978, p.32,35). An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201144 Process of Urban renewal in Hamburg: The population ag- ing and shrinking, suburbanization and migration are the reasons of population loss which seems to reach 100,000 until 2015 and a more pronounced population decrease after that in Hamburg (Empirica In- stitute, 2001). Housing improvement and job opportunities in new economic sectors are expected to help the city sustain the popula- tion and maintain human capital (Clark, Lloyd, Wong, Jain, 2002; Leidelmeijer, Marsman, Kamp, Hollander, 2003). During the eight- ies, the traditional industries which were port-related industries and shipping declined dramatically (La¨pple, Deecke, 1996). In the fol- lowing decade, service sector, new media and information commu- nication technology (ICT) industries grew rapidly (La¨pple, Kempf, 2001). The city has not yet established a competitive base on new sectors such as modern education, employment in high-tech services or R&D expenditure (Parkinson, Hutchins, Simmie, Clark, Verdonk, 2004). However, many fundamental reforms of education systems, the establishment of a professional business environment for new sectors and a new airport for intercontinental fl ights outside Hamburg proposed that is required cooperation with a neighbouring Federal State (Hall, 1997; Hubbard, 1995) Urban development: HafenCity project is at the heart of Hamburg development which is considered to be the largest city development in Europe built on 155 ha of former port area to extend the inner city by 40% (See Fig. 31). HafenCity development will be branded by a metropolitan and maritime mixture of living, culture, leisure, tourism, Figure 31. Site model of Hafen City Source : Woudstra, 2010 An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 2011 45 business and trade with fl ats for up to 12,000 inhabitants and offi ce space for more than 20,000 jobs. HafenCity construction has started and scheduled for completion around 2025 (Hoja, 1999). Harburg in Hamburg's south has been developed as an attractive place for living and new sectors such as biotechnology, new media, communication technologies and consulting. The district’s neighbour to the North, the river-island Wilhelmsburg combines a central loca- tion with large green and water areas (Grossmann, 2005). Elbinseln district consists of Wilhelmsburg, Harburg and Veddel established through an overall development and housing plan because of the structural weaknesses and social problems in Wilhelmsburg (Wil- helmsburg, 2002). Urban Policies: The programmes of promoting migration of young Germans to Hamburg’s Inner City comprise demolition, moderniza- tion, new construction, improvements in physical environment and some additional infrastructure. This project was also opposed to con- version of residential use into offi ce space. The predominant reason for Outer City residents to migrate to Inner City were the size of the new apartment, leaving bad neighbourhoods, monthly rental price, the equipment by which the apartment was furnished and its central- ity of location (Friedrichs, 2007). Public participation of residents as the new forms of regional gov- ernance, which have been established in German regions like Stutt- gart and Hannover (Salet, Thornley, Kreukels, 2003; Walter-Roog, 2004) has still missed in Hamburg (Hamburg, Stadt, Entwicklung, 2002). The Regional Development Concept (Notteboom, Winkel- mans, 2000) has only achieved very limited actual changes in deci- sion making (Walter-Roog, 2004). The government of Wilhelmsburg and investors in Harburg collaborate in some ways. Environmental Situation: Deepening the Lower Elbe from not more than 2.5m in parts to 15.3m over the last 180 years (Gewa¨ssero¨kologische Studie der Elbe, 1984) and heightening dikes have infl icted the port profoundly by changes on the river ba- sin ecosystems. The Lower Elbe river basin is internationally impor- tant because of the large number of valuable habitant (Grimm, Die Landschaft, 1982-3). One of the signifi cant environmental changes ascribed to river construction has been natural fl ooding. “Elbe deep- ening measures account for approximately 20% of the rise in higher An exploration of effective components and design criteria for Social Inclusion, 201146 high water, dike building for 66% and fl ood barrages in the Lower Elbe’s tributary streams for about 13%. Dike building after the di- sastrous fl ood of 1962 resulted in a loss of 47.9% of fl ood plains on the Northern and 74% on the Southern river bank relative to 1900. Shallow water areas have decreased by 33% on the Northern and 8.5% on the Southern bank, saltwater and freshwater mudfl ats by 7% and 25%, respectively. Naturally fl ooded areas were reduced by 75% over t