DEPARTMENT OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMICS DIVISION OF SUPPLY AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTS CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Gothenburg, Sweden 2023 www.chalmers.se Report No. E2023:100 United States Hydrogen Infrastructure and Market Overview A Northeast Purchasing Scenario Analysis Master’s thesis in Supply Chain Management ALBIN BENGTSSON PHILIPSSON LINUS LEJON REPORT NO. E2023:100 United States Hydrogen Infrastructure and Market Overview A Northeast Purchasing Scenario Analysis ALBIN BENGTSSON PHILIPSSON LINUS LEJON Department of Technology Management and Economics Division of Supply and Operations Management CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Gothenburg, Sweden 2023 United States Hydrogen Infrastructure and Market Overview A Northeast Purchasing Scenario Analysis ALBIN BENGTSSON PHILIPSSON LINUS LEJON © ALBIN BENGTSSON PHILIPSSON, 2023. © LINUS LEJON, 2023. Report no. E2023:100 Department of Technology Management and Economics Chalmers University of Technology SE-412 96 Gothenburg Sweden Telephone + 46 (0)31-772 1000 Gothenburg, Sweden 2023 United States Hydrogen Infrastructure and Market Overview A Northeast Purchasing Scenario Analysis ALBIN BENGTSSON PHILIPSSON LINUS LEJON Department of Technology Management and Economics Chalmers University of Technology SUMMARY The unique properties of hydrogen make it a promising candidate in the transition towards a sustainable society. As hydrogen is a rapidly evolving market where the U.S government is pursuing efforts to develop a clean hydrogen industry, the novelty of the topic is evident. This study examines the as-is infrastructure and market landscape for hydrogen in the U.S. It also develops and evaluates purchasing scenarios to gain insights into the feasibility and implications of adapting hydrogen to plants of heavy- duty truck production. By understanding the potential of hydrogen and assessing its existing market dynamics, this study contributes to the ongoing explorations of hydrogen as a fueling solution. The qualitative research comprises literature research, semi-structured interviews, internal seminars, and internal company events. Data gathered is analyzed through a thematic analysis approach. The hydrogen market currently relies on high majority gray hydrogen (>99 %). There are targeted efforts in the selected northeast area for developing supply infrastructure like hubs and refueling stations. Technological advancements will play a key role in shaping the market’s potential. The emergence of new buyers and the increasing demand for clean hydrogen to decarbonize hard-to-abate industries will be drivers of the market. Two important acts, IIJA and IRA, are also driving the market with a notable $ 9.5 billion funding for hubs and several valuable tax credits. One specific tax credit being the 45V, encouraging clean hydrogen production through tax credits per kg of hydrogen produced, over a ten-year period. The study explores four purchasing scenarios, with their viability dependent on timing and contextual factors. Extending the first purchasing solution of mobile stations is critical to navigate market uncertainties. The solution has an estimated switching point above 13 tons of hydrogen demand per year or at a breach of 500 kg peak volume needed within relevant delivery occurrences, currently at once every two weeks. Lastly, the color categorization of hydrogen should probably be switched to a numerical carbon intensity based one instead. Keywords: U.S. Hydrogen Infrastructure, Hydrogen Supply Chain, Clean Hydrogen Hubs, Purchasing of Hydrogen, Sustainable Development I Acknowledgements The master thesis was conducted in the spring of 2023 as a final assignment of the M.Sc. Supply Chain Management at the Chalmers University of Technology. It was done in collaboration with the Volvo Group, to support their knowledge of the hydrogen market. We would like to express our appreciation to the Volvo Group people who have supported us, with a specific thank you to Camilla, Kevin, Sophie, and Frida for their valuable input. The time with the Volvo Group has been inspiring and your expertise has been of great help navigating the intense world of hydrogen. A special thank you to Camilla Nilsson and Girish Kotegar for the opportunity to write this thesis. An additional huge thank you to our supervisor at Chalmers, Patricia van Loon, for valuable insights and support during this spring. Your knowledge of academia and guidance during the thesis has been of immense help, thank you! Albin Bengtsson Philipsson & Linus Lejon Gothenburg, June 2023 II List of Acronyms ALK - Alkaline Electrolyzer BEV - Battery Electric Vehicle CCS - Carbon Capture System DOE - U.S Department of Energy EIA - U.S Energy Information Administration FCEV - Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle GHG - Greenhouse Gas Protocol HRS - Hydrogen Refueling Station IEA - International Energy Agency IIJA - Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act IRA - Inflation Reduction Act NDA - Non-disclosure Agreement OEM - Original Equipment Manufacturer PEM - Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolyzer QDCFTSR - A Volvo Group Acronym for Supplier Evaluation Metrics QDCFTSR - Quality, Delivery, Cost, Features, Technology, Sustainability and Risk ZEV - Zero Emission Vehicle III IV Table of Contents List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. IX List of Tables .................................................................................................................................... XI 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background and Problem Description ........................................................................ 1 1.2 Aim ............................................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Research Questions ............................................................................................................. 3 1.4 Delimitations ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.5 Thesis Outline ........................................................................................................................ 5 2. Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Research Strategy and Design......................................................................................... 6 2.2 Research Approach ............................................................................................................. 7 2.2.1 Explorative Research ................................................................................................. 7 2.2.2 Desk Research ............................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Primary Data Collection ............................................................................................ 8 2.2.4 Scenario Analysis ......................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Data Collection ................................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Literature Research ................................................................................................. 10 2.3.2 Internal Events .......................................................................................................... 10 2.3.3 Semi-structured Interviews ................................................................................. 11 2.3.3.1 Interview Preparation .................................................................................................... 11 2.3.3.2 Interview Selection .......................................................................................................... 12 2.3.3.3 Interview Procedure ....................................................................................................... 13 2.4 Data Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 14 2.5 Research Quality ............................................................................................................... 15 2.5.1 Reliability ..................................................................................................................... 15 2.5.2 Validity .......................................................................................................................... 15 2.5.3 Ethical Considerations ............................................................................................ 15 3. Literature Study ........................................................................................................................ 16 3.1 Introduction to Hydrogen .............................................................................................. 16 3.1.1 Hydrogen as a Fuel ................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 Hydrogen Colors ....................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2.1 Green Hydrogen ................................................................................................................ 18 3.1.2.2 Pink Hydrogen ................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2.3 Gray Hydrogen ................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2.4 Blue Hydrogen ................................................................................................................... 19 V 3.1.2.5 Turquoise and Other Categorizations of Hydrogen ............................................ 19 3.1.3 Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) System ............................................................. 19 3.1.4 Takeaways from Introduction to Hydrogen .................................................. 21 3.2 Supply Chain Overview................................................................................................... 22 3.2.1 Hydrogen Production Methods ........................................................................... 22 3.2.2 Storage .......................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.3 Transportation of Hydrogen ................................................................................ 24 3.2.4. Hydrogen Offtakers and Avenues of Utilization .......................................... 25 3.2.4.1 Existing Offtakers ............................................................................................................. 25 3.2.4.2 Transportation Sector ..................................................................................................... 26 3.2.4.3 New Avenues ...................................................................................................................... 27 3.2.5 Supply Chain Takeaways ....................................................................................... 28 3.3 Hydrogen Developments in the U.S ........................................................................... 29 3.3.1 The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) ..................................... 30 3.3.2 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) .............................................................................. 31 3.3.2.1 Advance Energy Project Credit (48C) ....................................................................... 31 3.3.2.2 Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (45V) ...................................................... 32 3.3.2.3 Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit (30C) ............................................... 32 3.3.2.4 Carbon Capture and Sequestration Credit (45Q) ................................................ 32 3.3.3 Hydrogen Development Takeaways ................................................................. 33 3.4 Regional Hydrogen Hub Developments in the U.S ............................................... 34 3.4.1 Areas of Interest ........................................................................................................ 35 3.4.1.1 Great Lakes .......................................................................................................................... 36 3.4.1.2 Appalachia ........................................................................................................................... 36 3.4.1.3 New England ....................................................................................................................... 37 3.4.1.4 The Gulf Coast .................................................................................................................... 37 3.4.2 Publicly Encouraged Hub Concepts................................................................... 38 3.4.2.1 “Hub 1” Horizons Clean Hydrogen Hub ................................................................... 39 3.4.2.2 “Hub 2” HyVelocity Hub ................................................................................................. 40 3.4.2.3 “Hub 3” Great Lakes Clean Hydrogen Hub ............................................................. 40 3.4.2.4 “Hub 4” Southeast Hydrogen Hub ............................................................................. 40 3.4.2.5 “Hub 5” Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2) ..................... 40 3.4.2.6 “Hub 6” Decarbonization Network (DNA H2Hub) .............................................. 41 3.4.2.7 “Hub 7” Mid-Atlantic Hydrogen Hub (MAHH) ...................................................... 41 3.4.2.8 “Hub 8” Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub (MACH2)........................................ 41 3.4.2.9 “Hub 9” Northeast Clean Hydrogen Hub ................................................................. 41 3.4.3 Regional Hydrogen Hub Development Takeaways ..................................... 42 VI 3.5 Purchasing Parameters and Investment Strategies ............................................ 43 3.5.1 Purchasing Parameters in the Context of Hydrogen .................................. 43 3.5.2 Purchasing Scenario Takeaways ........................................................................ 44 4. Empirical Findings ................................................................................................................... 45 4.1 Hydrogen Market Knowledge Overview.................................................................. 45 4.1.1 Hydrogen Market in the U.S ................................................................................. 45 4.1.2 The Hubs ...................................................................................................................... 46 4.1.3 The IRA ......................................................................................................................... 46 4.1.4 Technological Aspects ............................................................................................ 47 4.2 Internal Requirements and Future View ................................................................. 48 4.2.1 Volvo Group Requirements .................................................................................. 48 4.2.2 Future Volume Need ............................................................................................... 49 4.3 Hub Interview Overview ................................................................................................ 51 4.3.1 Driving Partners ................................................................................................................... 51 4.3.2 Functionality of the Hub .................................................................................................... 52 4.3.3 How Different Feedstock Affect Hub Development................................................ 52 4.3.4 Department of Energy and Application ...................................................................... 53 4.3.5 Biggest Driver of the Hydrogen Market Going Forward ....................................... 54 4.3.6 Summary of Additional Hub Findings .............................................................. 55 4.3.7 Supplier Key Takeaways ........................................................................................ 56 4.3.8 Non-Supplier Key Takeaways .............................................................................. 57 4.4 U.S Hydrogen Supply and Demand Overview ........................................................ 58 4.4.1 Current Production .................................................................................................. 58 4.4.1.1 Hydrogen Production Facilities .................................................................................. 59 4.4.1.2 Refineries ............................................................................................................................. 60 4.4.1.3 Electrolyzer ......................................................................................................................... 60 4.4.1.4 Unknown Capacity ........................................................................................................... 61 4.4.2 Supplier Situation Overview ................................................................................ 61 4.4.3 Suppliers Outside of Hubs ..................................................................................... 62 4.5 The Investment Decision for Clean Hydrogen ....................................................... 63 4.5.1 Source Options .......................................................................................................... 63 4.5.2 Delivery Options ....................................................................................................... 64 4.5.3 Refueling Station Options ...................................................................................... 65 4.5.4 Partnership Options ................................................................................................ 65 4.5.5 Investment Decision Takeaways ........................................................................ 66 VII 5. Analysis and Discussion......................................................................................................... 67 5.1 Hydrogen as a Topic in Context for the Volvo Group .......................................... 67 5.2 Supply Chain Analysis ..................................................................................................... 70 5.3 Hub Assessment ................................................................................................................ 72 5.4 Competitive Analysis ....................................................................................................... 74 5.4.1 Volvo Side Outlook on the Market / Market Assessment ......................... 74 5.4.2 Supplier View on Volvo Group ............................................................................ 75 5.5 Regulatory Analysis - The Acts and Tax Credits ................................................... 75 5.6 The Purchasing Scenarios ............................................................................................. 76 5.6.1 The Boundaries and Constraints ........................................................................ 76 5.6.2 The Concrete Scenarios .......................................................................................... 77 5.6.2.1 Mobile Station .................................................................................................................... 77 5.6.2.2 Buy as a Service ................................................................................................................. 78 5.6.2.3 In-house Production ........................................................................................................ 80 5.6.2.4 Partnership ......................................................................................................................... 81 5.6.3 Purchasing Scenario Analysis .............................................................................. 82 5.6.3.1 Mobile Station .................................................................................................................... 82 5.6.3.2 Buy as a Service ................................................................................................................. 83 5.6.3.3 In-house Production ........................................................................................................ 83 5.6.3.4 Partnership ......................................................................................................................... 84 5.6.4 Context for Volvo Group and the Purchase Volumes ................................. 85 5.6.5 Recommendation ..................................................................................................... 86 5.6.6 Potential Partnerships ............................................................................................ 88 5.7 Market Prospects, Barriers, and Drivers ................................................................. 90 6. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 91 6.1 Further Research .............................................................................................................. 93 References ....................................................................................................................................... 94 Appendices ..................................................................................................................................... 104 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................ 104 Appendix B ................................................................................................................................ 105 Appendix C ................................................................................................................................ 106 VIII IX List of Figures Figure 1. The outline of the study. .................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2. Overview of the five key areas of the thesis and the activities linked to each. .................. 6 Figure 3. Volumetric density versus gravimetric density of conventional fuels (DOE, n.d (a)). .... 16 Figure 4. Hydrogen energy density, as dependent on temperature and pressure (Kuhn, 2015). ..... 17 Figure 5. Regional clusters in the U.S (DOE, 2021). ...................................................................... 34 Figure 6.The Volvo Group U.S plants with hydrogen interest together with the regional clusters of interest (Volvo Group Internal Documents). .................................................................................. 35 Figure 7. The identified publicly encouraged hub concepts in their respective regional clusters and in relation to the Volvo Group plants. ............................................................................................. 38 Figure 8. The identified publicly encouraged hubs in their respective regional clusters and in relation to the Volvo Group plants. With approximate delivery distance potential of <99 miles. .. 56 Figure 9. U.S hydrogen supply and demand. Data from Energy Futures Initiative (2023). ........... 58 X XI List of Tables Table 1. Internal sessions with the Volvo Group to gain knowledge on the topic, formulate the problematization of the thesis and to align the purchasing scenarios. ............................................ 10 Table 2. Internal Volvo Group interviews to create an understanding of the internal situation...... 12 Table 3. External actor interview sessions. *Session 3, 8 and 10 are not hub or U.S specific but gave insights into supplier market views. ....................................................................................... 13 Table 4. The resulting color of hydrogen, based on feedstock and production method. ................. 22 Table 5. Summary of the key initiatives mentioned. ....................................................................... 30 Table 6. The tax credits 45V and 48C visualized (DOE, n.d(d)) .................................................... 32 Table 7. Information available from public announcements regarding stated plans for the hubs (Bioret et al, 2023). ......................................................................................................................... 39 Table 8. U.S capacity across different segments in million tons. ................................................... 59 Table 9. Breakdown of merchant- and refinery production of hydrogen in million tons based on regional clusters of interest (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2016) .................................. 59 Table 10. PEM electrolyzer capacity in the regional clusters of interest. (Arjona & Buddhavarapu, 2021) ............................................................................................................................................... 60 Table 11. Information available from hub-partnering supplier websites, press releases or other related online available sources regarding current and planned capabilities and offerings.. .......... 62 Table 12. The specific scenarios explained in comparison to the indicator parameters. ................ 82 XII 1 1. Introduction The hydrogen topic is introduced with emphasis on the decarbonization journey, which leads into the problem at hand - to understand the current situation. This is followed by the aim, purpose and research questions alongside relevant delimitations chosen to facilitate the study. 1.1 Background and Problem Description In order to face challenges of climate change and reach the goals set up by governments in the Paris Agreement, society and industry need to collaborate. There are certain parts of society which are considered more difficult to decarbonize, one being the transportation sector which is a so-called hard-to-abate industry (Heid et al., 2022). The transport sector has already established electric vehicles, which act as a decarbonizing solution. But electricity alone is not enough according to Denholm et al (2022), where the power output of electric vehicles will not be enough for heavy-duty long-distance transportation. Further, the electricity grid and availability will become a problem as demand increases for all sectors - there is a need for further sustainable solutions which can act as enablers of decarbonization in society (Denholm et al, 2022). One such solution being “clean hydrogen” that can act for example as fuel with promising features, with water as the only by-product. The industry sector alongside the transportation sector is described by Heid et al. (2022) to be the sectors with the most potential of utilizing hydrogen. These sectors combined have potential to support the facilitation, with an estimated decrease of carbon dioxide emissions by 80 gigatons until 2050 through the use of clean hydrogen. Which represents 11% of the required decreased emissions by 2050 (Heid et al., 2022). The importance for society to become sustainable remains and is becoming more crucial, where governmental actions and international collaborations is the foundation towards a sustainable future. Such actions and collaborations are on-going and rapidly expanding, with hydrogen importance increasing as well. Changes in the hydrogen field are therefore happening at a rapid pace all over the world in the forms of projects, incentives, and regulations. There are on-going developments of over 680 announced large scale hydrogen projects globally with potential investments of over 240 billion dollars (Heid et al., 2022). Volvo Group has committed to reach Science Based Targets, which is a clear, defined way forward in reducing greenhouse gas emissions for society and can facilitate the goals of the Paris Agreement (Andersen et al., 2021). As a result, Volvo Group is reaching for rolling fleet net-zero value chain emissions by 2050. Because of this, hydrogen is seen as an important area to consider, with expectations for hydrogen trucks to be available before 2030. Currently, hydrogen is limited by lack of infrastructure and high costs, which creates the key development areas (de Pee et al, 2022). A company 2 like Volvo Group in this context must align their capabilities, existing strategies, and infrastructure to best navigate this new developing area. It also becomes important to consider the acceleration of hydrogen and fuel cell initiatives all over the world in order to support their own objective of having net-zero value chain emissions. In order to reach the goal set up by Volvo Group and to strategically position themselves, an increased knowledge about the fast developing market, the ecosystem, its infrastructure and costs related to hydrogen is needed. This in turn, will assist with securing availability of hydrogen for testing and further on also for their products and customers. The knowledge needed is for all parts of the hydrogen supply chain such as production, storage, distribution and refueling. This report will add to academic knowledge of key drivers and barriers in development of hydrogen infrastructure as well as to the understanding of different parameters for hydrogen procurement. Knowledge of the current- and developing hydrogen supplier base is needed to create an understanding of the changing ecosystem and its trends, which relates to developing initiatives in major geographical areas in both Europe and the U.S, as well as development of clean hydrogen. The current bigger knowledge gap is within the U.S region, where the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are driving initiatives. The IIJA aims at developing clean hydrogen distribution- and supply networks through so-called “hubs”. The IRA is seen as critical for advancing the U.S hydrogen market and consists of heavy incentivization towards clean hydrogen development. The thesis focuses on the U.S region with specific deep dive in surrounding areas of Volvo Group plants, the plants in focus for hydrogen is: ● New River Valley - Virginia (Volvo Trucks) ● Shippensburg - Pennsylvania (Volvo Construction Equipment) ● Lehigh Valley - Pennsylvania (Mack Trucks) ● Hagerstown - Maryland (Engine/Transmission) The understanding of the as-is infrastructure and its development in the U.S, constitutes the base of analysis for what the strategic position of purchasing should be for Volvo Group. The thesis includes a description of the as-is situation and then utilizes an analytic approach to recommend Volvo Group with a strategic purchasing position for their U.S plants through scenario analysis. 3 1.2 Aim The thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of key drivers and hydrogen market developments for the U.S region with emphasis on areas surrounding the Volvo Group plants, which are found in the northeast of the U.S. This will be done by integrating the current, available knowledge of the supplier base and market intelligence to further research about developing infrastructure, like the hydrogen hubs. This is to create an understanding of how the fast-changing market of hydrogen is developing in the foreseeable future, by relating to current and future requirements as well as identifying key actors and initiatives in the market. This understanding will be analyzed through a purchasing perspective to identify key parameters of different purchasing scenarios and recommend Volvo Group with a purchasing strategy for hydrogen availability in the coming months and years. The objective is to understand how the developing infrastructure looks, together with its ecosystem in the selected northeast area. Also investigate parameters of different purchasing scenarios. Further analysis will put barriers and drivers into contextual perspective for the U.S plants of Volvo Group with positioning recommendations. The purpose will be to deepen the knowledge about infrastructure developments, the current ecosystem and how it will impact a purchasing decision. 1.3 Research Questions Because hydrogen is a fast-developing field and knowledge quickly gets outdated. The first objective is to understand the as-is situation, by mapping the current and developing infrastructure around the Volvo Group plants in the U.S. This regards governmental strategy and incentives, together with hub developments, supplier availability and OEM collaborations. Which creates the foundation for the first research question: RQ1: What is the as-is situation of hydrogen infrastructure and ecosystem with emphasis on the northeast of the U.S? Based on this situation, Volvo Group can obtain hydrogen in different ways. These scenarios come with different advantages and disadvantages, they also come with different costs and risks which are of interest to understand. A scenario analysis for purchasing hydrogen to use on-site for the plants over a short- and longer-term perspective, is the foundation for the second research question: RQ2: What are the key parameters influencing the purchasing decision of hydrogen? 4 1.4 Delimitations As stated in the aim of the thesis, an analysis regarding the hydrogen market infrastructure is done from a purchasing perspective and will regard on-site availability of gaseous 700 bar hydrogen. Therefore, the focus of analysis will not be on the aftermarket. Processes and technologies implemented and used in the field of hydrogen that will relate with the project are not to be looked at in depth, but rather used to create an understanding of how processes are working and are developed. Technical solutions related to the hydrogen market and its infrastructure will therefore act as a topic for understanding and discussion rather than a point of analysis. Such processes and technology can for example be related to the production of hydrogen as well as the fueling stations, storage, and transportation to name a few. Technologies used and implemented by the Volvo Group to enable hydrogen as an operating fuel for their trucks will not be looked at through a technical perspective. Therefore, an understanding of the processes will be kept at a basic level, as the thesis regards the market and infrastructure rather than the technical aspects. There are hydrogen hub concepts developing in all regions of the U.S and a multitude of actors from different sectors involved. With a focus on the Volvo Group interests combined with limited resource capacity, the maintained focus throughout the report will be on the east side of the U.S with the biggest emphasis on hub concepts in close proximity to Volvo Group plants. The focus will also be on suppliers within the hubs that have access to hydrogen production and can benefit the Volvo Group purchasing agenda. 5 1.5 Thesis Outline A descriptive configuration of the study together with a brief summarization of each chapter is presented here. In Figure 1, the outline is illustrated. Figure 1. The outline of the study. Chapter 1 - Introduction. The first chapter introduced the subject by providing a contextual background that led into the problem description. This was followed by the aim, purpose and research questions alongside relevant delimitations chosen to facilitate the study. Chapter 2 - Methodology. This chapter includes research strategy and design, the approach for data- collection and analysis as well as reflections regarding the method used, in terms of validity, reliability and ethics. Chapter 3 - Literature study. The third chapter captures interesting information and provides context to the subject by creating a foundation of hydrogen knowledge for the reader. It also creates understanding around the as-is infrastructure, its developments and purchasing scenarios. This is done from available literature and non-confidential internal company documentation. Chapter 4 - Empirical data. A chapter consisting of interviewee expertise and reflections based on answers during the semi-structured interviews. It also includes observations and learnings from conferences, workshops, and general day-to-day activities. A U.S hydrogen supply study is also displayed. Chapter 5 - Analysis and Discussion. This chapter compares, applies, and argues previously introduced data with relevant theories. It also visualizes the purchasing scenario analysis from the perspective of the plant requirements. The findings are applied in context of the research questions. This is also discussed in a broader context, with the goal to fulfill the purpose of the study and answer the research questions. Chapter 6 - Conclusion. The final chapter summarizes key findings, repeats recommendations, and finalizes answers to the research questions. 6 2. Methodology This chapter describes the research approach and methods that were used for the thesis. The first section presents the research strategy and design, which is followed by the research approach. Afterwards follows a data collection description and the data analysis approach. The chapter is concluded with research quality considerations. 2.1 Research Strategy and Design The research was mainly a qualitative research study, with a few simple calculations to increase perspective understanding. The focus was on the hydrogen market and its rapid development, to create a high-level overview of what is going on, factor in the requirements that exist and the parameters of different solutions. All this was put into context of Volvo Group in the U.S, how they should position themselves, what solutions to utilize and what type of strategy they should embrace in regard to purchasing hydrogen. The research strategy to perform this was a combination of exploratory research and desk research due to the developing nature of the topic, with semi-structured interviews to support through triangulation. Involvement of internal hydrogen buyers at the Volvo Group was also an important strategic aspect for realistic scenario creation. The report was done with an abductive approach, that is, a combination of the top-down theory approach of deductive strategy with the empirical data focus of inductive strategy (Bryman and Bell, 2015). It was also written in an iterative process, to allow the research conducted and new data to continuously guide the process and develop it as it evolved (Bell et al., 2019). The design of the research had five key areas, which each had certain activities tied to it. The first area was to create an understanding of the topic and to design the research questions. The second area was to gather information and comprehensively explore the topic. Third, to develop realistic purchasing scenarios connected to the Volvo Group situation. Fourth area, to analyze findings. Lastly, fifth area, to conclude and provide recommendations. These five areas and their connected activities can be found in Figure 2 below. Figure 2. Overview of the five key areas of the thesis and the activities linked to each. 7 2.2 Research Approach Because of the novelty of the topic of the thesis, new- and changing information is continuously emerging. There is also a competitive nature surrounding the topic, making data about the as-is situation considered sensitive in many aspects. As a result, the topic itself has not been thoroughly researched previously, and there are few academic articles covering what the thesis intends to analyze. Therefore, the following research approach was designed and followed in order to build an understanding of the topic and later deep dive into specific areas of interest to analyze. The study was conducted in a qualitative fashion due to it being more realistic with the information available and from the nature of the as-is mapping aspect. 2.2.1 Explorative Research The research methodology adapted for the thesis is based on the characteristics described about the topic. It is highlighted by a lot of new, changing, and sensitive data. Therefore, the research methodology that was adopted is based on exploratory research. Which can be defined in different ways and consists of different exploration types (Stebbins, 2001). Explorative research generally aims at creating a good overview- and understanding of the topic and to identify the nature of the problem (Chenail, 2014). The type used for this thesis is exploration of discovery, which is considered well-fitting to the topic of this thesis. This is because it enables a flexible research method and utilization of many different sources for the data collection on a new topic that is scarce of scientific knowledge (Stebbins, 2001). It allows the thesis to provide a necessary understanding of key issues and trends, as well as highlighting specific areas of interest for the topic. After gaining a better understanding of the topic and the nature of the problem, specific methods for conducting research were used to gain further insights. 2.2.2 Desk Research To build on the knowledge gained through the explorative research approach and gain further insights about the topic under investigation, desk research was conducted. It is a form of secondary data collection, with the basis of using information that is already public and does not need to be gathered directly (Woolley, 1992). This allowed the use of existing resources as a gateway to other-, similar in topic sources and thereby increasing the knowledge and further insights into the topic analyzed (Snyder, 2019). This was done through several different sources that consisted of both qualitative and quantitative characteristics, which is said by Woolley (1992) to increase variety and strengthen the case. To provide qualitative data, relevant literature on the topic was gathered, consisting of a combination of academic articles, public reports from well- established actors in the field as well as U.S governmental resources about the topic. 8 2.2.3 Primary Data Collection To validate information from the findings and gain further insights, adding on to the knowledge about the topic, a primary data collection was also conducted. This was done through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, this way results could be compared between the interviews while each interview still was flexible enough to bring new context and further learnings (Bell et al., 2019). The goal of conducting interviews was to reach a point where no further insights were gained, reaching saturation (Morse, 1995). Achieving saturation is a challenging approach as described by Baker and Edwards (2012) and cannot be viewed as a linear process, resulting in saturation not always being possible or practical. The topic was characterized by new- and changing data which also contains sensitive information, it is important to acknowledge the challenges of reaching saturation in this type of environment. It was therefore of importance to have other forms of data backing up the information, to reach arguably saturated answers (Morse, 1995). The interview data could be used to validate other findings that were gathered through the previous methods of data collection. Additionally, an interview was conducted with a research analyst who is knowledgeable within the field of hydrogen. This further highlighted and gave perspective on already obtained information. Which is referred to as triangulation of data and is described by Bryman and Bell (2015) and Griffee (2005) to be an efficient way of increasing the validity and trustworthiness of the data. It was important to have the novelty of the topic in mind when performing the interviews and to respect potential confidential topics and privacy of said information (Bell et al., 2019). 2.2.4 Scenario Analysis Lastly, in order to answer the second research question, a scenario analysis was performed. The scenario analysis acted as a foundation of the strategic planning for Volvo Groups’ U.S plants when purchasing hydrogen. A scenario analysis consists of developing different scenarios that should resemble potential outcomes of the future, with regard to a certain context (Schoemaker, 1995). The scenarios act as a basis for understanding and assessing different future potential impacts. By creating several different scenarios, one can envision multiple potential futures and capture a range of different outcomes that enables a more informed decision-making (Wack, 2014). The main purpose of a scenario analysis is therefore to increase understanding of future events, through scenarios, which can provide insight into potential risks and opportunities for several different outcomes of the future (Koshow & Gaßner, 2008). The scenario approach is interesting because there are many different ways of acquiring hydrogen, and with its inherent characteristics, it becomes crucial to consider the options available since it is reflected across many parameters. The fact that hydrogen 9 is a rapidly changing- and developing market, strengthens the use of scenarios because of the uncertainties of the future. Because of this, it becomes of interest to identify and understand what underlying parameters determine- and play an impact on the different purchasing scenarios, which can help in creating an understanding of upcoming events and their potential impact (Knight et al., 2020). When there is an uncertain future regarding the business environment of an organization, the purchasing- and supply chain management will have to be adapted accordingly in order to face such uncertainty (Pettit et al., 2013). Therefore, it is of interest for organizations to have knowledge of upcoming events that will have an impact on purchasing decision factors, such as costs, risks, and investments. It is also important to have an understanding of the anticipated events' significance in order to analyze and assess these future events (Knight et al., 2020). To create an understanding of such upcoming events which are characterized by an uncertain future, one can perform a scenario analysis (Schoemaker, 1995). Which is fitting for the topic of the thesis, as it is characterized by a lot of rapid developments. Therefore, together with the second research question, it is of interest to perform a scenario analysis on purchasing parameters. Knight et al. (2020) argues that when performing a scenario analysis, the scenarios should reflect the strategic targets that have been set up by the organization in order to enable relevant comparisons and reflections between the scenarios. In such a scenario analysis, different scenarios are developed in order to assess their potential impact on purchasing- and supply chain management (Knight et al., 2020). There are several ways of performing a scenario analysis, which all depend on different contexts (Schoemaker, 1995). Because of this, Koshow and Gaßner (2008) explains that methods to perform an analysis can be combined depending on what context scenarios are being developed. They further argue that methods should consider uncertainty of changes and different time horizons. Therefore, methods should consider the short-term impacts of events that may occur such as economical, environmental, political and technical. It is also of importance to consider long term developments that regard technological and geopolitical advancements as its impact regarding many actors (Koshow & Gaßner, 2008). Knight et al. (2020) further elaborates on this through a purchasing perspective, with the importance of strategic planning of future events, while considering potential collaborations and interactions of the future. It is important to state that it is evident from (Koshow & Gaßner, 2008; Knight et al, 2020) that context regarding the scenarios is the most important aspect to consider, since scenario analysis regards making sense of the future through a short- and long-term perspective. The exact parameters used will be discussed with support from literature in section 3.5 “Purchasing Parameters and Investment Strategies”. 10 2.3 Data Collection Secondary data presented in the literature chapter was collected through various public reports, academic articles, and U.S government sources. Empirical data (primary data) was gathered through a combination of internal sessions and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, which was held until a good understanding was achieved (Baker & Edwards, 2012). The U.S as-is supply and demand situation were also placed in the empirical data. This is because a various mixture of sources was used to understand the supply and demand, when no single source available covered everything needed. Using the author's reasoning, the combination of sources to paint the full picture was selected, which is why it can be found in the empirical data over the literature study chapter. 2.3.1 Literature Research When searching for qualitative data, specific keywords concerning the theme of the thesis were used to find relevant literature. The selected keywords for the search were: “Hydrogen developments in the US”, “Hydrogen infrastructure in the US”, “Inflation Reduction Act” and “Hubs”. Different databases such as Chalmers library, Google Scholar, MDPI and ScienceDirect were utilized. Additionally, due to the government being a big driver in the on-going change and a key source when it comes to the hydrogen hubs, government websites and published reports were utilized as well. The decision was made to only have the most recent information included, therefore only academic articles from 2022 and onwards were selected. This was done because there is a lot happening within hydrogen at the moment and articles in this selection will include the important and still relevant aspects of previously published articles as well as keeping up with the most recent information. 2.3.2 Internal Events The overview of the internal sessions can be found in Table 1 below. Involved actors cannot be mentioned by name, however they regard big players in the hydrogen market and various legislative representatives (for the conference). Both the conference and the workshop highlighted the current trends, drivers, and incentives for a developing hydrogen market. The seminars included key hydrogen buyers which was a constructive way of reaching a joint agreement for the problematization of the thesis. The other three seminars were targeted on the purchasing scenarios, to reach both realistic scenarios and a fair business-case-based way of analyzing them. Table 1. Internal sessions with the Volvo Group to gain knowledge on the topic, formulate the problematization of the thesis and to align the purchasing scenarios. 11 2.3.3 Semi-structured Interviews Data was gathered internally from three different semi-structured interviews together with stakeholders from the Volvo Group, with key insight into the topic from a position with great overview. Both the technical and operations business units were involved, with the final purchasing unit being conveniently part of the thesis as supervisors. The technical department as a business unit in this context, has a focus that revolves around the development and testing of the products. The operational department is more product- and investment oriented with production for large scale-up to customer. Whereas the purchasing department is the supporting unit, like a mediator of requirements to suppliers - with certain technology requirements themselves. The three interviews conducted were enough to reach saturation due to the novelty of the topic and its limited coverage as of now internally. All three interviews had similar (the same) responses. The purpose of the internal interviews was to create an understanding of how hydrogen is going to be used in the different Volvo plants in the U.S and consequently understand the future need and its requirements. Data was also gathered from external semi-structured interviews. The initial goal of speaking with one leading supplier actor and one leading non-supplier actor for each hub was not attainable. A total of 22 interview requests were sent out, 12 suppliers and 10 non-suppliers. 10 suppliers declined and 5 non-suppliers declined, leaving the acceptance rate at ~68 % in total. 50 % for the non-suppliers and ~18 % acceptance rate for the suppliers. These were all related to the identified hubs. The secrecy and NDAs involved in the various projects made it difficult to reach actors willing to participate. In total, actors from 6 hubs out of the 9 identified were interviewed. An additional 3 supplier interviews were conducted through Europe connections, with a general market view focus, to add to the credibility of supplier understanding. Lastly, a hydrogen research analyst was also interviewed to triangulate the findings of their quality, depth, and recency. 2.3.3.1 Interview Preparation For the interviews, general actor specific templates can be found in the Appendices chapter below, they acted as the interview guides. In total there are three templates, one internally and two externally - with the two external being split between supplier actor and non-supplier actor. The reason for different templates for these interviews is that the actors have a very different role to play in terms of interaction with the Volvo Group. It was created and based on information gathered through the literature study, but the nature of the semi-structure allowed for several interesting topics to be deeply discussed when certain expertise was present. Because of this, areas which would not have been considered or touched upon given a structured interview, were able to get covered and created a flexibility and openness of the interviews that gave deep insights (Rowley, 2012). The templates were given to the interviewees prior to the interviews, in order for them to prepare and gave them a chance to ask for clarifications if needed. 12 The templates were also discussed and approved both internally with the Volvo Group and with the thesis supervisor prior to any interview being conducted. The templates were designed with the actor in mind and their potential future involvement with Volvo Group in the hydrogen space. If they had a potential role to play, the interview followed the “supplier” template, which is a bit more focused on product offerings and other supplier related activities. If the actor didn’t fit in that role the interview followed the “non-supplier” template and was focused on more broad hub knowledge and role. Both templates still cover similar topics to allow cross referencing. 2.3.3.2 Interview Selection The internal selection for interviews was based on people who are knowledgeable about the plants, their current operations, and future plans within the Volvo Group for hydrogen. The interviewees possessed the knowledge and understanding of the plants to express and argue for the future need, timeline, and requirements in regard to hydrogen. The interviews can be seen in Table 2 below. These interviews established a timeframe for needs and requirements. Which is confidential information but gave a perspective that facilitated both the creation and the comparison criterias of the purchasing scenarios. Table 2. Internal Volvo Group interviews to create an understanding of the internal situation. The external selection for interviews was based on hub actor involvement, where actors with an already established connection with the Volvo Group got priority for contact. This was to ensure an entry point and enable the setup for the interview to be easier. Also, selection was prioritized based on the influence of the actor involved in a chosen hub, since a leading actor would be more involved in the development process. However, due to the competitive- and confidential nature of the hub developments, it was determined that more actors had to be contacted to generate more information. Therefore, it was of interest to contact actors which were not necessarily connected to the Volvo Group, like non-profit companies, universities, and other researchers in the field. The reasoning behind this was that such actors might be more open to share information regarding the hubs, providing a more general overview of the hub developments but still specifics about the hub that they are part of - from the point of a heavily involved leading actor perspective. These external interviewees were more approachable, all external interviews conducted can be viewed in Table 3 on next page. 13 Table 3. External actor interview sessions. *Session 3, 8 and 10 are not hub or U.S specific but gave insights into supplier market views. 2.3.3.3 Interview Procedure The interviews were all conducted over video calls on Teams, this was since all interviewees were based in the U.S while author’s residence is Sweden. The participants were all asked beforehand if the interviews could be audio-recorded and transcribed in order to efficiently organize and analyze findings (Bell et al. 2019). Initially the anonymity question was asked as well but became a statement that it would be so after 3 interviews, since all prior interviews requested that, and coherency would look better in the report. It was an appreciated gesture. The reason participants of external interviews requested to be anonymous was due to the sensitive topic and various non-disclosure agreements held around projects. The description of the type of organization will be available but the organization will not be mentioned by name, this is because role description combined with organization would give away interviewee identity. The structure of the interview was that one researcher took notes while the other led the interview, this supported the process to oversee findings while the recording could clarify and double check facts. Not all interviews were recorded due to permission being denied. 14 2.4 Data Analysis The method for analysis that was used is thematic analysis, this is a qualitative research approach that relies on identifying patterns and themes within a collected set of data (Nowell et al., 2017). This is a flexible and commonly used method that allows for interpretation of the researched theme, in this case hydrogen, and its various aspects. According to Attride-Stirling (2001) this allows for an in-depth analysis and is particularly useful when it comes to analyzing qualitative data. The method also allows recurring themes throughout multiple sources to be analyzed (Nowell et al., 2017). The themes were based on the grouping of questions in the interview templates, which subsequently gave areas to analyze in the thesis. These themes were the foundation for analysis of the empirical data later on. By dividing the interview template into different themes, categorization of the data was made to highlight areas of importance for the project. This then enabled the research direction to be adjusted throughout the project as the amount of data increased (Kerssens-van Drongelen, 2001). By categorizing data into different themes, it was easier to handle and compare relevant data with existing data. Similarly, data not relevant to any theme could be disregarded (Smith, 2015). The thematic approach was supported through thorough explanations of the hydrogen related activities, to give a further understanding of the themes before them being discussed and analyzed. These themes and areas are based on a subjective judgment by the authors, which may lead to different interpretations of themes and their relevance by other researchers. The selection criteria used for the themes were relevance and context for the thesis, which was also discussed internally with the Volvo Group stakeholders to frame it. Further triangulation was used for the findings presented to strengthen their credibility. 15 2.5 Research Quality When evaluating qualitative research, it is important to look at metrics such as credibility, validity as well as internal- and external reliability (Bell et al, 2019). These aspects are discussed below and were considered during the report process. 2.5.1 Reliability With hydrogen being a new emerging area, common knowledge gained through the study will with high likelihood change quite rapidly in the future, so guaranteeing external reliability is difficult despite a thorough explanation of methodology. Qualitative research in general is also more difficult to replicate as no standard practices exist, as argued by Bell et al (2019). With regard to internal reliability, there are possibilities that misunderstandings occurred during the semi-structured interviews. However, measures were taken, such that both authors attended all interviews, and the interviews were recorded if possible to verify interpretations. 2.5.2 Validity Regarding external validity, the question is to what extent findings in the study are generalizable to similar actors outside the study. Through the use of different stakeholders within Volvo Group, external suppliers, partners and key people of interest, alongside comparison of the multiple perspectives with data in the literature study, findings made should increase the external validity of the study as argued by Lewis (2009). The hydrogen area is however developing and reliant on geographical location. Therefore, there will most likely be multiple ways of interpreting the market and infrastructure of today, which means that the findings may not apply to a generalizable degree across sectors or even actors. Lastly, a technique called triangulation was used to assess internal validity. This is a way to add credibility to the study since author bias can influence the outcome. 2.5.3 Ethical Considerations In a project of this manner, where interviews were held and used as a foundation for the empirical data, ethical aspects are important to take into account (Bell et al, 2019). Therefore, the authors made sure to provide interviewees with how and what the data was going to be used for, bringing a purpose to the data collection as well as enabling interviewees to participate anonymously due to privacy reasons. Also, since confidential topics were discussed, it was of importance to have discussions with interviewees whether specific information discussed could be published or not. These were all measures taken to ensure avoidance of harm and deceiving the participant, while respecting their integrity and privacy (Bell et al, 2019). 16 3. Literature Study The chapter provides context to the subject by creating a foundation of hydrogen knowledge though a hydrogen introduction. It also creates understanding around the as-is infrastructure, its developments and purchasing scenarios. 3.1 Introduction to Hydrogen Hydrogen (H2) is the lightest, most commonly appearing element in the universe. When found in its pure elemental state it is most commonly found as gas due to the more extreme mediums required for liquid and solid to exist (EIA, 2022a). The state of hydrogen is like any other element decided by its thermal energy and the strength of its intermolecular bindings, which is created by the surrounding conditions of temperature and pressure (Soult, 2020). Hydrogen has a common occurrence on earth in water and organic compounds, which means that when free hydrogen is desired it must be produced. This is achieved through forceful separation of compounds using various energy sources, which, due to hydrogens' reactive nature, comes at a great energetic cost (Agyekum et al, 2022; Soult, 2020). This means that hydrogen is not a source of energy itself, but rather an energy carrier that can be utilized as either fuel, storage or to create electricity (IEA, 2022b). Hydrogen as an energy carrier is interesting, partly because it emits no GHG emissions upon combustion but also, as can be observed in Figure 3 below, because it has a very high energy content per weight unit, almost three times as much as gasoline (DOE, n.d (a)). That coincides with a low energy content per volume unit though, about four times less than gasoline, which together with some other attributes of hydrogen like low ignition temperature, facilitates itself through transportation and handling difficulties (EIA, 2022a). Figure 3. Volumetric density versus gravimetric density of conventional fuels (DOE, n.d (a)). 17 3.1.1 Hydrogen as a Fuel The different phases of hydrogen fuel can be observed when looking at Figure 4 below, what is seen is that different phases carry different energy potentials. Cryo-compressed hydrogen is a technique that handles both liquid and gaseous hydrogen at cold temperatures (Langmi et al., 2022). This technique in conjunction with liquid hydrogen on its own, both look very interesting from an energy carrier perspective, but they require very low temperatures which come with high- storage requirements and handling costs. They are under development and therefore currently less utilized than compressed gaseous hydrogen (Langmi et al., 2022) Figure 4. Hydrogen energy density, as dependent on temperature and pressure (Kuhn, 2015). For hydrogen as gas there are multiple possible pressures in which it can exist, the different pressures dictate properties of the gas which in turn can affect things like efficiency reached in the engine, power output and the filling speed of refueling (IEA, 2023a). For personal vehicles like cars, where hydrogen deployment has come further, it is currently common to find it fueled by hydrogen gas at 350-700 bar pressure (DOE, n.d (a)). The lower end of this range is not sufficient in terms of power output for commercial vehicles (IEA, 2023a). Because hydrogen in the form of gas is currently used for personal vehicles, it is the most regulated type of hydrogen fuel and has come the furthest in terms of technological maturity in hydrogen fuel implementation (Volvo Internal documents). Therefore, even though there is not an established standard yet for commercial vehicles, which may result in various changes down the line, the natural transition will be through hydrogen as a gas for commercial vehicles (Volvo Internal documents). Which is why the focus will be on gaseous 700 bar hydrogen. 18 3.1.2 Hydrogen Colors Hydrogen can be produced in many different ways and the resulting hydrogen is given a color code for categorization. This is in order to separate between the amount of carbon dioxide emissions the production method and its inputs has produced (Kusoglu, 2022). The different color definitions vary depending on source, in this report the colors are as follows: Green, Pink, Gray and Blue. 3.1.2.1 Green Hydrogen Green hydrogen uses electrolysis of water through electricity generated from renewable energy sources. This is considered completely renewable with no emissions since the byproduct of the process is water and energy. This is the most desirable type of hydrogen releasing zero GHG emissions and can be used to achieve sustainable practices (Valavanidis, 2022). The process of electrolysis requires 40 kWh of electricity and 8.9 kg of water for 1 kg of hydrogen (Energy Futures Initiative, 2023). 3.1.2.2 Pink Hydrogen Pink hydrogen is referred to as hydrogen that is produced with nuclear energy, which utilizes the process of fission (separating uranium) in order to create steam which then powers generators that generate electricity. This electricity is then used for the process of water electrolysis to produce “pink” hydrogen. The process of creating pink hydrogen has no GHG emissions but does use uranium which is a finite radioactive element and cannot be considered renewable in the same sense as green hydrogen (Valavanidis, 2022). The input is similar in process to green hydrogen, with 40 kWh of electricity and 8.9 kg of water needed for 1 kg of hydrogen (Energy Futures Initiative, 2023). 3.1.2.3 Gray Hydrogen Gray hydrogen is an umbrella term for production methods which are based on fossil fuels and most commonly done through a method called steam methane reforming (SMR) (EIA, 2022b). This is the most cost-efficient method of producing hydrogen at a large scale today (Kim & Maxwell, 2022). It is also the method with the most GHG emissions out of the methods used (EIA, 2022b). The carbon emissions from producing gray hydrogen are explained by Energy Futures Initiative (2023) to be 5.5 times the amount of hydrogen produced. For example, per 1 kg of hydrogen produced there are 5.5 kg of carbon dioxide emitted. It is not clearly stated, but this 5.5 kg of emissions looks to target the SMR process only and not the full life cycle, which means that more emissions must be accounted for as well. The input requirement to get 1 kg of hydrogen is 5.7 kWh of heat, 4.5 kg of water as well as 2 kg of natural gas (Energy Futures Initiative, 2023). 19 3.1.2.4 Blue Hydrogen Blue hydrogen is similar to gray, as it uses the same processes for production, but utilizes an additional system to capture the carbon emissions released during production and store it safely underground. This process is referred to as a Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) system (Kusoglu, 2022; Ishaq et al., 2022). The efficiencies of this technology, as can be read about in subchapter 3.1.3 below, are not clear. Blue hydrogen as a color is considered “lower emission” hydrogen as of now (Agarwal, 2022). If the goals of reaching the theoretical efficiency at 95 % expressed by (Global CCS Institute, n.d) were reached, that would be 0.05*5.5 kg = 0.275 kg carbon dioxide emissions per kg of blue hydrogen produced. This requires an additional 2.2 kWh of electricity to the gray hydrogen input in order to capture the carbon dioxide (Energy Futures Initiative, 2023). There is no data for lifecycle emissions, as described in the paragraph above 3.1.2.3 Gray Hydrogen, but it should be considered as well. 3.1.2.5 Turquoise and Other Categorizations of Hydrogen Turquoise hydrogen is the result of a pyrolysis process that produces hydrogen from a methane hydrocarbon source, with the byproduct as carbon in solid form instead of carbon dioxide like other processes (Agarwal, 2022). Depending on how the solid carbon is utilized or disposed of it can have as little emissions as green hydrogen, or emissions closer in line with blue hydrogen. This “either or situation” results in the color in between the two - Turquoise. There is other more “niched” categorizations of hydrogen. It can be important to note their existence, but there is no substantial availability of them and therefore no need to go into detail. The most relevant and considered colors are gray, blue, pink, and green. Therefore, these will be in focus during the thesis. 3.1.3 Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) System The CCS system’s intended use is to capture carbon dioxide from processes or even the atmosphere and then store or use it in order to prevent the carbon dioxide from contributing to global warming (Nationalgrid, 2023). This allows for the possibility to lower the emissions from processes utilizing fossil fuels and making the end product more attractive. According to IEA (2021a), the process consists mainly of three steps: the capture part, the transport part and finally either the use- or storage part. Carbon dioxide is captured through various technologies, like chemical absorption or physical separation, it is then compressed or liquidized to ease the transport (IEA, 2021a). Usually, the transport is made with ships, pipelines, trucks, or tankers - which is dictated by the distance. For the use part, Herzog (2023) and Global CCS Institute (2022) talk about three different potential uses, the most common one today is in “enhanced oil recovery”. This is utilizing carbon dioxide gas to squeeze out the last oil in wells while replacing that oil with the carbon dioxide functioning like a storage. The two other uses 20 are product creation and agricultural use. Where chemical companies are looking into making materials like carbon fibers or graphene from carbon dioxide, while the agricultural side aims to stimulate growth in plants, bacteria, and algae (Herzog, 2023). For the storage part, geological formations underground is utilized to store the carbon dioxide, which is then carefully monitored in order to make sure that there is no leakage (IEA, 2021a). This is deemed a key process in the transition phase into completely carbon free hydrogen at scale (Agarwal, 2022). The goal of CCS reduction efficiency is aimed at the theoretically achievable 95 % (Global CCS Institute, n.d). The current efficiency is very difficult to determine, where sources vary a lot. The one source found with the most substance was Robertson and Mousavian (2022), which states that current efficiency of carbon capture technology is around 50 - 60 %. It is also commented that it is far lower in the trials conducted than expected, with a high majority (90 %) of projects also failing under implementation or getting suspended early. Other sources like c2es (n,d) state that achieved rates are around 90 %, but no comments are made as to in what scale these were achieved, if they were made on life cycle-based emissions or which projects these numbers were based on. Further, IEA (2022a) states that 90 % is an achievable capture rate from flue gas, meaning that this is on the production part only and not the full life cycle. It is stated that higher rates are needed for the net zero system, but no comments are made in regards to life cycle focus or requirements. Estimates are made in accordance with current projects pipeline that about 70 Mt carbon dioxide can be captured annually by 2030 on a global basis from hydrogen production (IEA, 2022a). Allowing the estimate to be 20 million tons of clean hydrogen to be available in blue color worldwide by 2030 (70 Mt / (5.5 - 2) kg = 20 Mt). Where 5.5 kg is from carbon emissions per 1 kg of hydrogen produced as explained in 3.1.2.4 above and 2 kg is from the clean definition in the paragraph below. 42.5 % of the carbon capture projects are in the U.S., which leaves the U.S. with 30 Mt of planned hydrogen related carbon capture available at 2030 (IEA, 2022a). Which allows for 8.6 Mt annually of blue hydrogen. Carbon capture technology is a necessity to turn fossil fuel-based production “clean”, if the carbon capture efficiency is enough to meet the DOE standards of carbon intensity, which is maximum of 2 kg of carbon dioxide emission per kg of hydrogen produced - as can be seen as a quote in section 3.3 below from DOE (2022), then the hydrogen will be categorized as blue. According to Robertson and Mousavian (2022) the overwhelming majority (80 - 90 %) of carbon emissions from fossil fuel-based production is in “scope 3 emissions” which is a type of emission that carbon capture technology cannot do anything about. Hence, applying heavy critique to the potential of blue hydrogen when looking at the full life cycle of emissions. They are supported in their claims by Jacobson (2019), who found that about 10 - 30 % of life cycle emissions could be captured at a fossil fuel-based plant. Producing gray hydrogen through SMR is described by EIA (2022b) as the most common way of producing hydrogen today. It is also the most cost effective way and is anticipated to continue to be the most utilized production method for larger scale 21 production in the near future (Kim & Maxwell, 2022). Gray hydrogen, with the most carbon emissions and projected to be on the forefront going forward, leads to carbon capture technologies becoming increasingly important to meet the goal set up of decarbonizing society according to IEA (2020) and will play an important role in enabling a clean hydrogen economy (DOE, 2022a). Currently, there are not many large- scale carbon capture and utilization facilities operating in the world, and the ones that do exist are tied to big industrial processes like steel or cement and not related to hydrogen production (Herzog, 2023). Today, 35 - 45 Mt of carbon dioxide is captured annually and there are currently 35 commercial operations actively aimed towards industry (IEA, 2022a; Herzog, 2023). To put into context, there was a total of 9.2 Gt of carbon dioxide emission from industry alone in 2022, with 36.8 Gt in total emissions globally from all sectors. This means that at best about 0.1 % was captured globally (45 Mt / 36.8 Gt = 0.0012) (IEA, 2023b). 3.1.4 Takeaways from Introduction to Hydrogen Hydrogen is a complex element which possesses favorable characteristics to help decarbonize society if it is produced accordingly. Because of these characteristics it is common to pressurize hydrogen at 700 bar in order to use it as a fuel today, which comes with limitations. Hydrogen also faces challenges due to the many ways to produce hydrogen, where the majority today is gray, and the production method heavily influences the sustainability aspect of hydrogen as a fuel. Carbon capture is an existing technology; however, the efficiency rates vary heavily by source. The difference between full life cycle emissions and emissions related specifically to the production process has a big discrepancy, focus should be on lowering the life-cycle emissions. Current project pipeline suggests availability of 8.6 Mt of blue hydrogen in the U.S. for 2030. But the life cycle versus process-based capture is still uncertain, leaving potentially less volumes available depending on the finalized definition of “clean hydrogen”. 22 3.2 Supply Chain Overview The attributes found in hydrogen result in several challenges when it comes to fulfilling hydrogen demand at a specific location due to distribution and storage requirements (EIA, 2022a). Hydrogen can be produced and transported in different ways as well as it can be utilized at different states of matter (DOE, n.d (b)). Since the combination of volume and pressure dictates the state of hydrogen, that means that transitions can occur between the different states (Soult, 2020). This ultimately means that hydrogen can take many different routes towards end use. An important thing to understand is the costs involved in facilitating it. The whole supply chain can be viewed as a system, where all losses, condition requirements, and transitions should be considered for a total system cost of hydrogen from A to B in the supply chain (DOE, n.d (b)). This system cost can be divided into three equally costly parts, consisting of: production-, distribution- and conversion costs of hydrogen (Volvo Internal Documents). The two main categories of choices would be to either produce hydrogen at the location of demand or to produce hydrogen at a central location and transport it to the location of demand via either pipelines, ships, trailers or trucks (IEA, 2023c). 3.2.1 Hydrogen Production Methods The production methods of hydrogen can be categorized into two main groups, first one being “clean hydrogen”, that is hydrogen produced with renewable energy or together with a carbon capture storage (CCS) system and the second one “gray hydrogen”, that is hydrogen produced with non-renewable energy and without a CCS. It can also be categorized based on the feedstock it uses as a resource, which is either water, fossil fuels or biomass (DOE, n.d (c)). Table 4 below illustrates the different production methods and their resulting color based on the categorizations mentioned. The definition of clean hydrogen can be found below in subchapter 3.3 and is based on DOE (2022). Table 4. The resulting color of hydrogen, based on feedstock and production method. 23 3.2.2 Storage Hydrogen storage is a key part of enabling a hydrogen supply chain, it is necessary for transportation, for stationary power generation and for portable moving applications (Tashie-Lewis & Nnabuife, 2021). Storage of hydrogen faces different challenges. One hindering factor is that when hydrogen is stored it has a much lower volume energy density compared to other fuels, such as diesel (DOE, n.d (a)). This results in larger volume systems needed, which has a big impact on portable power generation solutions (in for example trucks) and also in hydrogen transport (Tashie-Lewis & Nnabuife, 2021). With larger storage systems, a lot of space is occupied but also requires higher investment costs. Another challenge of storing hydrogen relates to its flammable characteristics, which concerns safety issues and requires additional protocols (Tashie- Lewis & Nnabuife, 2021). Lastly, the key challenge mentioned by Agarwal (2022), is the huge uncertainties and expenses that are involved in building the hydrogen infrastructure, with storage system development as one of the key challenges within. There are a couple of different solutions to storing hydrogen, which differ depending on storage-time. Currently, a mature and cost-effective solution for small scale and short-term storage, is compressed gas in high pressure tanks (Clarke et al, 2022). High pressure tanks have the problem of volume density, despite being a mature technology, it is limited by how much hydrogen it can store and doesn’t scale economically to higher volumes very well (Tashie-Lewis & Nnabuife, 2021). Another short-term solution but for way larger volumes would be in gaseous form in pipelines known as “line packing” (Pascal, 2022). Line packing can be used to store hydrogen within pipeline networks by continuous alteration of pressure, however it is not a feasible long term storage solution and the amount of hydrogen pipelines available is very low (Pascal, 2022). For medium- and long-term solutions, hydrogen can be stored in liquid form in cryogenic tanks, within chemical carriers like ammonia or in underground geological formations (IEA, 2021b). Liquid hydrogen in cryogenic tanks has a lot greater volume density than gaseous hydrogen, which means that it scales better with volume and is more economically viable at larger quantities. The process of liquefaction is however expensive and relies on specialized equipment and processes for maintenance of very cold temperatures (-253°C) (Tashie-Lewis & Nnabuife, 2021). The chemical carrier route, specifically ammonia, is a popular method of longer-term storage which the agriculture sector utilizes diligently (Aziz et al, 2020). However, its use as a fertilizer doesn’t translate well when intended for hydrogen fuel use, the storage medium requires two transitions - from hydrogen to ammonia and then back. Thereby increasing the ownership cost a lot (Aziz et al, 2020). There are studies of using ammonia as a fuel without cracking it (transitioning it back to hydrogen) which could be an interesting avenue if successful to utilize a cost effective and proven way of both hydrogen storage and transportation for the combustion part as well (Aziz et al, 2020). 24 Geological underground storage is most commonly done through the use of salt caverns, which enables large quantities of hydrogen to be compressed and injected into the salt rocks for safe storage (Mokhatab et al., 2018). This method is considered by many to be the best solution regarding storage of hydrogen (Lankof et al., 2022). However, underground formations like salt caverns have long lead times, flushing out the residues to make room for the gas can take between 2-5 years (Neuman & Esser Group, 2022) whereas permits and construction could be 7 years not including planning time (Hystock, 2022). Still, methods like salt caverns are a proven technology that has been implemented since the 70’s. And its underground storage offers a set of advantages compared to above ground storage, mainly because costs are significantly lower. However, despite its industrial adaptation, salt caverns are regionally dependent due to geographical conditions and cannot be applied everywhere (IEA, 2021b). 3.2.3 Transportation of Hydrogen Hydrogen can be transported as a compressed gas, as a liquid or within a chemical carrier (IEA, 2023c). Optimal choice will be case specific depending on final use, but the general rules explained by Hydrogen Council (2021) is that hydrogen transportation will behave very similarly to natural gas transport solutions. Where large volume combined with large distance is economically best done by shipping. Medium and short distances dominated by pipelines and trucking as a more expensive but flexible complement (Hydrogen Council, 2021). Natural gas solutions have had tremendous investments made in infrastructure, which make it unlikely that hydrogen can just copy best practices in neither the short- nor the medium term. Hydrogen has a very high versatility in terms of possible solutions and usages, this requires careful and systematic analysis to avoid inefficient and costly infrastructure (IEA, 2021b). Pipelines are going to be key due to cost reasons observed in the natural gas case, but they involve and require a lot of upfront investments (Hydrogen Council, 2021). There are possibilities to retrofit current natural gas pipelines into hydrogen pipelines, which could reduce costs down to ⅓ of building new pipelines according to Hydrogen Council (2021). Clarke et al (2022) found that costs for laying retrofitted pipelines could be as low as 10% of new pipelines when factoring in necessary network planning permits that new pipelines would require. Currently in the US, there are over 3 million miles of gas pipelines, where about 1.600 miles of pipeline is dedicated to transporting hydrogen (EIA, 2022c). Whichever way the infrastructure will be built, pipelines are both a costly investment and time consuming to build and/or retrofit. The pipeline solutions will take many years to build on a larger scale, however locally, given a favorable business case it could be arranged for shorter distance microgrid solutions sooner (Volvo Internal documents). In terms of larger scale infrastructure, adding to the fact that it takes years to build, careful planning is necessary due to the investment risks involved, which may add several years to that timeline. IEA (2021b) points to the fact that the high upfront 25 investment costs for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure will be a problem when demand is still prospective and regulatory frameworks are yet to be established. One shorter term solution could be blending hydrogen with other natural gases, this way existing infrastructure of pipelines could transport hydrogen given its smaller demand in comparison (Mahajan et al, 2022; Topolski et al, 2022). Only a small amount of refurbishment could enable around 15-20% of hydrogen to be blended into the existing natural gas system (Melaina et al., 2013). However, IEA (2023a) points out that due to characteristics of hydrogen, embrittlement happens faster and would therefore reduce the lifetime of current natural gas pipelines. They refer to the American standard ASME B31.12, for the specific requirements and stricter rules around hydrogen pipelines. This would also require a gas separator solution at the hydrogen usage point when high purity is required (Topolski et al, 2022). 3.2.4. Hydrogen Offtakers and Avenues of Utilization There are many potential and already existing offtakers of hydrogen. It is important to mention all of them in order to understand the hydrogen supply chain for the as-is situation, despite the focus of the report being on the transportation sector. 3.2.4.1 Existing Offtakers The existing offtakers of hydrogen are actors in industries who utilize it as a feedstock for production of another product (IEA, 2019). This can either be by using hydrogen as a direct source, like in heating or chemical processes or it could be in the making of fuels with hydrogen as its base (Energy Futures Initiative, 2023). The specific U.S supply and demand partition is further elaborated in section 4.4 below. The largest offtakers of hydrogen in the U.S are refineries, which use hydrogen as input in order to facilitate the operations to make petroleum. Because of their large offtake, refineries often utilize SMR to make their own hydrogen to be used at the refinery (captive hydrogen). Refineries are also said to create hydrogen as a by-product when utilizing chemical processes in the production of petroleum (EIA, 2016). Another large area for hydrogen offtake in the U.S is explained by Energy Futures Initiative (2023) to be the chemical industry and processes. Where ammonia and methanol are the largest offtakers used for industrial products. Similarly to petroleum refining, the chemical industry uses hydrogen to facilitate operations, while ammonia- and methanol production uses hydrogen as a feedstock for their respective products. Ammonia is primarily used for agricultural industries as fertilization while methanol is used for plastics and fuels. Therefore, similarly to petroleum refineries, ammonia- and methanol producers also make their own hydrogen commonly though SMR technology. 26 3.2.4.2 Transportation Sector The use of hydrogen in transportation is currently quite limited, however there are various options for it being developed. The use today is mostly as rocket fuel for space exploration, with small amounts for hydrogen cars - specifically in California when it regards the U.S. Other transportation avenues are shipping, garbage trucks, buses, and heavy-duty vehicles. Rocket fuel is an outlier in terms of how they require hydrogen delivered, but for the others, with heavy duty as the focus of the report. Refueling stations are key. An interesting part for the transportation sector at the end of the hydrogen supply chain is the hydrogen refueling stations (HRS). They enable storing- and fueling of hydrogen and is considered a crucial part in order to accelerate the deployment of FCEVs around the world (Genovese & Fragiacomo, 2023). As previously mentioned, hydrogen fuel in gaseous form has come the furthest in hydrogen fuel implementation, it is therefore currently common to find HRS with hydrogen in gaseous form at 350-700 bar pressure (DOE, n.d (a)). If other fuel technologies like liquid hydrogen gains usage in vehicles, the HRS available will most likely cater to that, similar to how both diesel and petrol are available in other fueling stations. HRS are, however, limited by the high investment costs needed, the uncertainty of the demand as well as the insufficient connectivity of the infrastructure. This leads to HRS being developed in areas which are considered early adopters of FCEVs (Genovese & Fragiacomo, 2023). It is stated in the Road Map to A US Hydrogen Economy (2020) that policies in such areas act as enablers for the advancements of HRS and development of the hydrogen economy. Because of this, it is important to analyze and consider where to develop HRS, as it cannot be developed in the same way as for traditional petrol gas stations (Lin et al., 2020). Safety, location, demand, interoperability, and cost are important factors to consider in order for a HRS infrastructure to be developed effectively (Lin et al., 2020). When looking at the U.S, the state of California stands out as an area which is leading in the HRS infrastructure advancement. That has resulted in all the current 57 HRS available in the U.S to be located in California according to a tracking tool provided by the Department of Energy (U.S Department of Energy, n.d (a)). As of now, there are currently 38 other HRS planned in the U.S in the short term, but it is also increasing with the on-going developments happening in the U.S. Out of the identified 38 projects, 32 of them build on to the current infrastructure available in California (U.S Department of Energy, n.d (a)). But there are also developments expanding throughout the U.S, where five HRS can be seen on the east coast in close proximity to New York, located throughout the Interstate-95 and one in Ohio (U.S Department of Energy, n.d (a)). From H2 Matchmaker (n.d), another digital tool can be found, it is developed by The Department of Energy in order to highlight hydrogen 27 projects in the U.S. In it another eight planned HRS can be found on the east coast of the U.S but it is not stated when they are planned to be developed. California is not an area of interest for this thesis, due to the distance from Volvo Group plants, but also since their focus is more aimed towards light-duty passenger vehicles rather than heavy-duty (Road Map to A US Hydrogen Economy, 2020). It is however of interest to look at California to see how developments have been made in this region. The reason why all of the current HRS are located in the state of California is due to their public-private collaborative approach as well as their regulatory approaches in incentivizing decarbonization. As an example, in California there is a law to have 100% of the light- and medium vehicles sold to be ZEVs by 2035, with similar restriction for heavy duty at 2045 (U.S Department of Energy, n.d (b)). Resulting in all of the HRS being publicly funded and therefore incentivized to be developed (Road Map to A US Hydrogen Economy, 2020). The reason for developments beginning to form in the northeast area can be connected to the legislative enforcements of zero emission vehicles (ZEV) made in New York, which are adopted by Californian standards (U.S Department of Energy, n.d (b)) This standard aims to incentivize ZEV refueling stations by granting funding for developments, as well as further state initiatives such as an infrastructure tax credit (U.S Department of Energy, n.d (b)). This likely needs to happen in other states as well for them to also start planning HRS. The hubs may very well push for this. Overall, it would be fair to assume that the recency regarding hydrogen development and the hydrogen hubs will create expectations for more than the 46 HRS mapped to be developed over the longer term. But there is no certainty as to where or when these will be mapped or later implemented. 3.2.4.3 New Avenues According to the Energy Futures Initiative (2023) there are several industries which can utilize hydrogen in order to decarbonize their processes. They further argue that some of these industries are more able to adapt and implement clean hydrogen in their processes than others. One of these industries is the steel industry where hydrogen can be used instead of carbon-based feedstock, for heating and chemical reactions. Which would remove the carbon emissions and leave end products of steel and water. This similar process of using hydrogen as a feedstock for heating is said by IEA (2019) to be used for other industries as well which require high heating temperatures. Such industries are described to be, for example, glass-making industries. Hydrogen heating can also be utilized for commercial heating but is said to be less efficient compared to today's options (IEA, 2019). Another avenue for hydrogen is that it can also be used to give stability to the renewable electricity grid, where a fluctuating nature in both use and price is common (Frankowska et al, 2022). Hydrogen production could be utilized at favorable times for electricity producers, given available storage solutions, to meet hydrogen demand at a 28 fair production cost and find use for the electricity produced when general usage is low (Tashie-Lewis & Nnabuife, 2021). They also say that it could act as an energy backup for emergencies or power outages. 3.2.5 Supply Chain Takeaways Hydrogen is an element that is difficult to handle from its inherent characteristics, but that also makes it very versatile, where it can be utilized in many of its different states and through different hydrogen vectors like ammonia. The existence of both clean- and non-clean hydrogen stems from its production method and geogr