Modeling of future market potential for electric vehicles in Sweden

Examensarbete för masterexamen
Master Thesis
Johansson, Andreas
Björnsson, Ola
The personal transport sector of today is dominated by fossil fuel vehicles such as diesel and gasoline cars. An option to decrease the carbon emissions from the transport sector could be to increase the share of the electric vehicles sold on the market. In this study, the future market potentials for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) is evaluated by creating a model based on a database of driving patterns of cars in southwestern Sweden. The model is developed in Matlab and is based on a cost minimization approach, where each driver is assumed to buy the car with the lowest total cost of ownership. The possibility of driving using electricity is evaluated by making battery simulations based on the driving pattern of each user. The model forecasts the market of BEVs, PHEVs, diesel cars and gasoline cars twelve years into the future based on different oil price developments and charging infrastructures. Several additional cases have been created where different policies and prerequisite have been studied such as increased subsidies for electric vehicles, increased fuel tax for conventional fuel and increased battery capacity. The market share for electric vehicles twelve years from now is estimated to be between 2.3% when a low oil price and small charging opportunities are assumed, to 13.1% for a scenario of a high oil price and greater charging opportunities. These results are based on the same fuel tax and policies toward electric vehicles as are implemented today. Our results indicate that for the different future oil prices and charging infrastructures assumed in this study, charging infrastructure has the largest effect on the electric car market. In the model policies aimed towards reducing the gap between investment cost of electric vehicles and conventional vehicles have been more effective than policies towards increasing the running cost of conventional vehicles.
Miljövetenskap, Annan naturvetenskap, Energi, Environmental Sciences, Other Natural Sciences, Energy
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