The Energy System in Aragón Facing the Future

Abstract

The aim of this Master Thesis is to study the development of the energy system in Aragón and analyze some options for its future development. A systems approach is applied. The report is divided in two parts. The first part studies in the historical evolution of the ener-gy system, analyzing the electrical system in detail. The second part focuses in energy model-ing. The first step is a literature review to find historical data about the energy system, and more in detail about the electrical system. The second part includes three different models: logistic curves of the electrical system, energy balance flow diagram and Long range Energy Alterna-tives Planning system (LEAP). Four scenarios are built using LEAP: the business as usual (BAU), coal priority (COAL), renewable electricity (REN) and electric cars (ELECAR). During the development of the project an important quantity of data about the energy system in Aragón has been found. However, when detailed data is needed, it is difficult to find. Ener-gy planning at national level, public and private, does not have a good quality. LEAP is an easy program to use and with little requirements, although there were some prob-lems when using it. The main conclusion from the scenarios is that both REN and ELECAR decrease carbon emissions. On the other hand, the costs of those scenarios are the highest. COAL is the cheapest scenario, but with more emissions. One of the important conclusions of the study is that there is a surplus of installed capacity in Aragón. Coal thermal power plants have a low generation, and at the same time combined cycles are installed.