Cost recovery of isolated microgrids in sub- Saharan Africa: causalities and

Abstract

The study examines cost recovery problems in off-grid electrification projects in sub- Saharan Africa. The long term success of isolated microgrid projects is analysed with a System Dynamics approach to consider socio-technical and economic factors. A supply and demand perspective of a microgrid-village system is used to describe feedback mechanisms and map them in a Causal Loop Diagram. Furthermore, a study visit in Mozambique was conducted to interview actors and visit microgrid projects. The data obtained from the study visit is used to strengthen assumptions on causalities in the model. In the analysis, the qualitative model is used to describe that loads from commercial activity can have positive effects on typical evening peaks. They can lead to higher capacity utilization and higher chances for cost recovery. Commercial activity from agriculture is seen as a promising sector to strengthen customer’s solvency, if adequate finance to local entrepreneurs is provided. Considerable from a microgrid perspective is that local operators need the capabilities to operate loads in microgrids. Moreover, the definition of prerequisites for a successful implementation of a microgrid project sums up project experiences drawn from the literature and study visit.