Foresight into emerging power system architectures, A scenario of maximised self-consumption in Sweden

Typ
Examensarbete för masterexamen
Master Thesis
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Publicerad
2015
Författare
Ingemarsdotter, Emilia
Böckin, Daniel
Modellbyggare
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Sammanfattning
The purpose of this study is to investigate a future scenario with an increasingly distributed power system in Sweden, in order to add to the discussion on possible and desirable development paths for the Swedish energy system. A household completely self-sufficient in electricity and heating is visualised and its economic and technical properties assessed. The time scope reaches to 2050, up until which trend analysis for the cost of each system component is performed. By identifying key parameters for realising a self-sufficient residential energy system, and by applying long-term target values for each parameter simultaneously, perspectives of the future state can possibly be broadened. A further purpose is to discuss the effects of an increasingly self-sufficient residential sector on the national energy system, and possible resulting system transitions. The analysis is performed through compiling data from various sources and through interviews with experts within the many fields of relevance for the study. The discussion is based on the application of transition theory onto the Swedish energy system and its actors. A feasible self-sufficient household level energy system in 2050 is identified as constituted by PV modules (5 kW) as the main power source, lithium-ion batteries (10 kWh) for overnight storage, hydrogen for seasonal storage (1500 kWh), an electrolyser (1 kW) and a fuel cell (1 kW) for converting back and forth between electricity and hydrogen. The system design is based on a significant reduction in household electricity demand, to 3500 kWh annually. Installation costs for such a system in 2050 are calculated to reach approximately 15 000 – 20 000 USD (120 000 – 170 000 SEK). The corresponding levelised cost of electricity is approximately 0.3 – 0.5 USD/kWh (2.5 – 4.2 SEK/kWh). The most significant uncertainty in the economic assessment is the cost of hydrogen storage. The effects on the national energy system are discussed, along with the dynamics of a decentralised energy system, which are fundamentally different from those of the current system. Further efforts are made into understanding how customer preferences, policy measures and utility business models could affect the development.
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Energi, Annan naturresursteknik, Energy, Other Environmental Engineering
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