The impact of climate change on Swedish wind power production

Examensarbete för masterexamen
Bergenjarl, Heléne
Global warming is now a fact, making it significant to model the future climate to be as prepared as possible. The aim of this study was to investigate if and how a warmer climate will affect the Swedish wind power. Wind power profiles were assessed with focus on recurrence of low wind periods, to see if they have a risk of becoming more frequent or longer or perhaps both. The investigation was conducted by analysing wind speed data from two different global climate models, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR, with the time scope of 2006 to 2099, and the temporal resolution of 3 h and 6 h, respectively. Both models with the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The study found a decrease of about 3% of the yearly electricity production from an average Swedish wind turbine, by the end of the century in the worst-case scenario, corresponding to a 5℃ increase. However, the two models were ambiguous as to whether it is the duration of low wind events or the number low wind events which increase. The study reached the conclusion that to be able to say anything for sure, whether a warmer climate does affect the wind patterns, or not, data from only two models are not enough. It also recommend that for future work it would be of interest to not only see how many and how long these low wind events are, but also to see how close to each other they are since this is a major factor when deciding the substituting energy source when wind turbine are not producing enough, for this study this is partly handled by using moving averages of 12 h and 24 h, when analysing the profiles. However, the result from the scenario where the global warming is kept below 1.5℃, shows no visible change for electricity production from an average Swedish wind turbine. Nevertheless, the overall results from this study do not indicate any substantial risk for future wind power owners of being directly affected by the change in production from the wind turbines as an effect of global warming.
Wind power, low wind events, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-LR
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Geografisk plats
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