Scenario Building as a Tool for Future-Oriented Product Design

Abstract

The world is constantly changing and adapting to technological innovations and societal events. Since we cannot predict the future with certainty, designing for the future poses a significant challenge. Despite this, there is limited research describing how scenario planning can be used in future-oriented design. This project aims to explore how future scenarios can serve as a creative tool for design. Conducted in collaboration with Volvo Group, the project focuses on the design of trucks and trailers as a case study. This project employs an exploratory approach, integrating Futures Thinking and Design Thinking. Information was gathered through expert interviews and trend research, reading from a wide variety of sources. The subsequent trend analysis focused on a selected set ofmegatrends and catalysts, which provided the foundation for scenario construction. Drawing inspiration from the Swedish Energy Agency’s report, Four Futures, its scenario format was used as a template. Using methods such as "If this is true, what else is true?", the relationships between trends were mapped and explored. Finally, three scenarios were constructed, which then served as the basis for developing two design concepts. The concepts were then evaluated by a focus group of designers at Volvo Group. To evaluate the scenarios they were compared against a set of criteria: plausibility, consistency, distinctness, comprehensibility, time and effort involved and degree of integration. The results showed that the scenarios met the criteria but revealed another weakness in the design process. The focus group called for a design method that more thoroughly incorporates the scenarios into the designs. To further explore how to utilise scenarios in design work, the next step could be to investigate the best methods for transitioning from scenario to product. Specifically, this involves finding ways to develop designs that fully integrate and reflect the information contained in the scenarios.