Analysis of how universal access to electricity may impact the long-term viability of the electricity sectors in Ethiopia and Kenya

Abstract

Ethiopia and Kenya are two of many countries that are currently making efforts to increase access to electricity within their countries, in line with the United Nations sustainable development goal about universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030. The countries have targets to reach universal access to electricity by 2030 and 2022, respectively. This master thesis consist of a qualitative analysis based on field studies and interviews to investigate how maintenance of the grid is performed in Ethiopia and Kenya. It also consist of a quantitative analysis and simulation of grid expansion to investigate how universal access to electricity would influence the financial viability of the electric power sector in each country. The allocation of investments in grid expansion, such as new connections or maintenance, may determine the long term reliability and financial viability of the power sector. According to simulations in this thesis the grid expansion in Ethiopia will have to increase further in order to exceed the large population growth. Maintenance efforts and electricity tariffs also need to increase in order to maintain reliability and financial viability. The simulations show that Kenya are likely to reach universal access to electricity in the near future with maintained financial viability, mainly due to the increased maintenance efforts and improved grid design. The conclusion is further that more research is required in order to better understand the system behavior for large grid expansions.