Risk Management in the Infrastructure Industry How Can Monte Carlo Simulations Reduce Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects?

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dc.contributor.authorRuud Bråten, Vetle
dc.contributor.departmentChalmers tekniska högskola / Institutionen för teknikens ekonomi och organisationsv
dc.contributor.departmentChalmers University of Technology / Department of Technology Management and Economicsen
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-03T14:58:47Z
dc.date.available2019-07-03T14:58:47Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractThe infrastructure industry is known for underestimating project risks. Monte Carlo simulation is a probabilistic risk analysis method that can quantify consequences of risks but is not frequently used in the infrastructure industry even though the method has been available for decades. The aim of this thesis was to investigate to what extent Monte Carlo simulations are used and how these simulations can be implemented into the risk management process in the Swedish infrastructure industry. The thesis is based on a literature study and an interview study with five consultants and three experts from the Swedish Transport Administration. The main findings are that Monte Carlo simulations seldom are used in the Swedish infrastructure industry today and that there is a difference between consultants and clients in perception of the benefits of Monte Carlo simulations. Consultants mostly appreciate the Monte Carlo method while the government client experts do not believe the benefits outweigh the added costs. Furthermore, the study indicates that Monte Carlo simulations can improve the risk management process by clearly visualizing and communicating risks to project participants, and that it should be possible to implement Monte Carlo simulations in many projects even without extensive knowledge of the method.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12380/256468
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofseriesMaster thesis. E - Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden : E2019:001
dc.setspec.uppsokTechnology
dc.subjectÖvrig industriell teknik och ekonomi
dc.subjectOther industrial engineering and economics
dc.titleRisk Management in the Infrastructure Industry How Can Monte Carlo Simulations Reduce Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects?
dc.type.degreeExamensarbete för masterexamensv
dc.type.degreeMaster Thesisen
dc.type.uppsokH
local.programmeDesign and construction project management (MPDCM), MSc
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