Future Household Plastic Packaging Waste in Gothenburg

Abstract

Plastics are a major source of fossil CO2 emissions, with packaging plastics being the largest stream globally and in Sweden ( SOU 2024:67; SWD/2022/384). Rising consumption and low recycling rates lead to more waste being incinerated, contributing significantly to emissions over the plastics’ life cycle. Sweden and the EU have introduced regulations to reduce waste and increase recycling rates. The most recent addition is the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR). Emissions from Swedish waste-to-energy incineration due to plastic waste remain a key concern. To reduce incineration emissions, the focus must be on waste prevention and improved sorting to enable more recycling. However, without clear projections, municipalities like Gothenburg risk misallocating efforts and planning capacity. To plan effectively, they must assess how future packaging waste flows may develop. This report aims to analyse future plastic packaging waste flows in Gothenburg, focusing on how PPWR will shape municipal waste management. It seeks to project how the flows of plastic packaging waste might change up until 2030 and investigate the impacts of PPWR. Furthermore, the study aims to examine how future flows of plastic packaging waste may affect the direct fossil CO2 emissions from the WtE plant in Sävenäs. Three research questions guide the study: What is the current flow of plastic packaging waste in Gothenburg and how is it managed? What are the projected flows of plastic packaging waste in Gothenburg in 2030 accounting for the impacts of PPWR? What would be the associated changes in direct CO2 emissions from the Waste to Energy (WtE) facility in Gothenburg? Methods include material flow analysis, waste projections, and lifecycle assessment, each building on the other. Results show that, of the 16 kt of plastic packaging waste generated in 2024, 71% is incinerated, emitting 31 kt of CO2. By 2030, plastic packaging waste can possibly increase by 6 kg/capita or decrease by 10 kg/capita. This indicates that a reduction in waste generation and achievement of associated regional and national targets is possible. The wide range of projections is due to many uncertainties, such as input data accuracy as well as how and if PPWR measures will be implemented in practice. Nevertheless, if PPWR is implemented successfully, plastic packaging waste can be reduced in Gothenburg. However, additional measures will be needed to meet ambitious targets. These may include targeted information campaigns for households in apartment buildings to increase their low sorting rates, or new building requirements to support source sorting indoors. The study identifies several aspects of interest for further investigation, including how to prepare for shifting waste streams, potential increases in paper packaging waste, and changes in recycling station usage. Additionally, reduced plastic packaging waste may have broader system effects, such as increases in other packaging types, substitution of other materials with plastic, and unequal competition within the EU if implementation of PPWR varies between countries.