Risk analysis of collision-damaged ship structures
Typ
Examensarbete för masterexamen
Program
Naval architecture and ocean engineering (MPNAV), MSc
Publicerad
2021
Författare
Bangera, Pavan Janardhana
Ullal, Anirudh Mallya
Modellbyggare
Tidskriftstitel
ISSN
Volymtitel
Utgivare
Sammanfattning
Shipping is the biggest mode of transport for bulk goods both by volume and value. But
there were many cases where the shipping owners had to face huge losses due to ship-ship
collisions, indirectly affecting the revenue flow in the shipping market. To quantify
the consequences and reduce the loss behind these setbacks, an engineering solution of
risk analysis has been done for a collision-damaged vessel.
Three major post-collision hazards are considered in the scope of this thesis. Risk
analysis on these three major hazards is done to quantify the severity of the
consequences faced after a collision. The whole objective of this thesis is to build a
general methodology that accounts for the stability risks of any vessel after damage,
assesses the structural safety and ultimate strength risk, and develops an oil pollution
response model that presents an economic valuation of the environmental impacts
caused by the collision.
Three methodologies are built addressing two different locations to showcase the
accident based on the marine traffic density and history of ship collision on the west
coast of Sweden. The analysis is made reliable by directly mapping the wave
characteristics of the accident location on the seakeeping, survival probability, ultimate
strength exceedance probability, and oil drift assessments. Considering the
vulnerability, two ship types (RoPax & tanker) were used to showcase the versatility of
the developed methodologies.
A graphical user interface of the risk analysis tool is developed for all three major risk
modules. The influence of the wave characteristics of the location on the risks are
shown. The damage stability risk tool presents the motion responses and the survival
risks; the ultimate strength risk tool delivers the ultimate strength exceedance
probability, consequence, risks, and proposes mitigation actions; finally, the oil
pollution response tool quantifies the consequences concerning the environmental
impacts in the Swedish waters.
It was shown that the wave characteristics vary for different locations in the same region
and have a significant influence on the results of the risks on both RoPax and tanker
vessels. It was concluded that the damage stability risk is sensitive towards the
maximum time for evacuation. It was also shown that the simple act of manoeuvring
the vessel can be an efficient way of ultimate strength risk mitigation. Analysing the oil
drift simulation results it was concluded that viscosity and density play a very major
role during the oil pollution response cost assessment.
Beskrivning
Ämne/nyckelord
Consequence analysis , metocean statistics , oil discharge , oil pollution response , probability of capsizing , risk analysis tool , rose plots , survival probability , ULS risk