A District With No Plan; The Futures of Slakthusområdet

Abstract

Urban areas must develop in increasingly volatile contexts, where long-term ambitions for resilience collide with short-term political and financial constraints. Conventional planning processes struggle to reconcile uncertainty with strategic decision-making, resulting in stalled development. This thesis examines how design-led scenario planning can function as a planning method for structuring long-term development pathways in Gothenburg’s Slakthusområdet district, under conditions of climate risk, planning uncertainty, and fragmented governance. Adopting a Research-by-Design methodology, the study utilizes Local Climate Zones (LCZ) and urban system mapping as analytical frameworks to translate planning theory into measurable spatial characteristics. The research develops three spatially exaggerated scenarios, each assuming the temporary dominance of one priority from Campbell’s Planner’s Triangle (social equity, environmental protection, or economic development). By tracing these competing logics across urban systems, the thesis reveals the structural trade-offs inherent in urban renewal. The findings suggest that scenario planning reframes uncertainty as an operational lever, providing a comparative framework to support decision-making in complex, redeveloping areas. Ultimately, the study proposes that planning must shift from seeking a balance toward providing comparative frameworks that evaluate the consequences of alternative pathways before they become binding commitments.