Logistics in Emerging Economies: Forecasts and Analysis for Mexico and Turkey
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Typ
Examensarbete på grundnivå
Program
Internationell logistik 180 hp (teknologie kandidatexamen)
Publicerad
2023
Författare
Erlandsson, Joakim
Pihl, Otto
Modellbyggare
Tidskriftstitel
ISSN
Volymtitel
Utgivare
Sammanfattning
This project focuses on examining the factors that can impact the logistics sector in
emerging economy countries, specifically Mexico and Turkey. The main objective is to find
variables impacting the logistics sector, and then forecast the future trends of logistics in the
short-term and mid-term horizons. To accomplish this, we utilize freight transportation data
obtained from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
database, categorized by different modes of transportation. Additionally, we gather various
factors that can influence logistics and freight transportation from the World Bank database of
world development indicators.
The initial step in our analysis involves data preparation and cleaning, ensuring that the
information is accurate and ready for further analysis. Next, we employ principal component
analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the data. The outcomes of the PCA reveal some
differences when comparing the two countries. However, we identify demographic, economic,
and logistical factors as influential in predicting future increases in freight transportation for
both Mexico and Turkey.
To identify the factors that significantly affect logistics trends, we perform exploratory data
analysis and employ a time series regression model. We utilize Exponential Smoothing (ETS)
and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods for forecasting logistics
trends in the short-term and mid-term horizons. The time series regression model, with an
Adjusted R-squared value of 0.963, indicates that the variables affecting the logistics sectors of
both emerging economy countries can be classified into demographic, economic, and logistical
factors. Specifically, we find that the young population, GDP, and export values are statistically
influential factors in shaping the future of logistics in emerging markets.
In analyzing the influential factors affecting the logistics sector in Mexico, several key
aspects have emerged. Manufactured exports, exports to high-income countries, and the
increase in consumption among the population are identified as significant factors driving
logistics development. Moreover, the presence of a young population in Mexico is crucial for
the logistics growth. Another noteworthy variable is negative rural growth, indicating a shift of
people from rural to urban areas. This trend is particularly important for emerging economies,
often serving as an indicator of overall logistics development.
Similarly, in the case of Turkey, various variables from different categories exerts a
significant impact on the development of freight transportation. Demographic factors, such as
age distribution and geographical positioning of the population, play a key role in logistics
trend. Additionally, economic factors, including GDP, interest rate, and debt stocks, have
proven influential in understanding the dynamics of freight transportation. Furthermore,
logistical factors, such as merchandise imports and exports, have emerged as crucial drivers of
growth in Turkey’s logistics sector.
Moreover, the forecasts generated by ETS and ARIMA models demonstrate an overall
upward trend in freight transportation for both Mexico and Turkey. However, variations are
observed between the modes of transport and the two countries. The choice of the best-fit
models differs across modes of transport. In the case of Mexico, the ARIMA model outperforms
the others for all modes except when forecasting total freight. For Turkey, the ETS model is
more accurate in predicting air and total freight, while ARIMA fits better for the other modes
of transport. The ETS forecast for rail transportation in Turkey suggests a relatively stable trend,
showing neither a significant increase nor decrease in the upcoming years. On the other hand,
the ETS forecast for air freight transportation in Mexico indicates a general increasing trend for
the next few years, followed by a slight decline in the final two years of the forecast, implying
a potential shift in the trend. To validate the accuracy of our forecasts, we assess the residual
properties and conduct statistical tests.
In conclusion, this project aims to uncover the factors that impact the logistics sector in
emerging economy countries, focusing on Mexico and Turkey. By employing data analysis
techniques, such as PCA, exploratory data analysis, and time series regression models, we
identify influential factors and generate forecasts for the short-term and mid-term horizons. The
results highlight the importance of demographic, economic, and logistical factors in shaping
the future trends of logistics in emerging markets. The forecasted trends indicate an overall
upward trajectory in freight transportation for both countries, with variations observed across
modes of transport. The reliability of our forecasts is supported by residual analysis and
statistical tests.
Beskrivning
Ämne/nyckelord
Emerging Market , Forecast , Logistics , Freight Transportation , Mexico , Turkey , Principal Component Analysis , Times Series Regression Model , Exponential Smoothing , Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average