Mapping Geopolitical Leverage in Global Trade: A Multilevel Analysis of Jurisdictional Influence and Industry Risks

Abstract

This master thesis examines how geopolitical dynamics influence global trade patterns and what strategic implications it entails for global players. In this study, it is exemplified by the telecommunication industry with Ericsson and with the PCB industry as a case example. By combining empirical data with theoretical frameworks from power influence theories, supply chain risk management, and economic complexity, the study aims to understand how jurisdictions exert trade leverage and how companies can respond to the emerging challenges of a geopolitically fragmented global trade environment. The research applies a mixed-methods approach, with a qualitative foundation supported by quantified secondary data from sources such as the Global Trade Alert (GTA), trade volume statistics and OEC measurements. The study is guided by two overarching research questions: What are the key geopolitical forces reshaping trade influence across global markets? Followed by, how can patterns in driving forces, trade power, and economic influence affect Ericsson supply chain in a vital industry, such as the Printed Circuit Board industry? The empirical analysis identifies power and leverage patterns among a set of pre-determined jurisdictions. Central actors like China and the United States combine large trade volumes with a high level of policy intervention, using tools such as export controls, FDI screening, and industrial subsidies. Bridging and transitional actors, such as India, Mexico, and South Korea, exhibit different strategic postures, often restricted by structural dependencies or limited coercive power. The study uses power influence mapping and resource-based theory to explain how states create, manage, or leverage interdependencies to their advantage. A focused analysis of the PCB industry reveals concentrated upstream production in East Asia, exposing supply chains to regionally clustered risks. The results show that global firms are vulnerable to sudden export bans, retaliatory trade measures, and shifting regulatory strategies. These risks are compounded by institutional asymmetries, where policy measures are unevenly applied across jurisdictions. For Ericsson, a multinational enterprise with operations in the US, Europe, India, and China, the thesis outlines strategic risks and potential responses. These include the need for upstream diversification, enhanced digital traceability, supplier redundancy, and stronger engagement in trade policy dialogues. Institutional asymmetries also require internal organizational capabilities to monitor and respond to geopolitical signals across jurisdictions. Overall, this thesis contributes to a better understanding of how geopolitical conditions and trade policy tools shape supply chain resilience. It offers both theoretical insights and practical strategies for firms navigating a world characterized by an increasingly protectionist narrative.