Navigating Civilian Market Opportunities for Autonomous Ground Vehicles

Abstract

Unmanned ground vehicles represent a rapidly emerging technology with potential applications across a wide range of industrial sectors. However, most current au tonomous systems rely on GNSS for navigation, limiting their utility in environments where satellite signals are unavailable or disrupted. This study examines the civil ian market (non-military market) for autonomous ground vehicles operating across three levels of technological sophistication, from remote control through standard autonomy to fully signal-independent navigation, with the aim of supporting strate gic market selection for an early-stage Swedish deep-tech venture. The study applies and adapts the Market Opportunity Navigator as the primary strategic framework, integrating technological sophistication as a strategic variable to enable dynamic strategizing across autonomy levels. A qualitative case study de sign was employed, combining two ideation workshops with twenty semi-structured interviews across eight industries, analysed through a deductive thematic analysis. The findings identify several characteristics that shape UGV adoption across indus tries. Safety and operational necessity as purchasing drivers appear to accelerate adoption more than efficiency arguments. Closed and controlled operational envi ronments reduce the effective regulatory challenge, explaining why industries such as mining and nuclear have progressed further than agriculture and construction. Or ganizational inertia manifests in two distinct ways depending on industry structure, and near-peer reference customers play a significant role in accelerating diffusion. The Market Opportunity Navigator proved effective as a strategic foundation but required several adaptations to function well in this high-uncertainty context, in cluding treating the process as iterative rather than linear, applying product fit as a separate screening step, and integrating technological sophistication as a strategic variable. The case study concludes with a concrete go-to-market strategy for the case venture, identifying a primary market within fire & rescue services as well as a parallel growth option within mining to purse now, and two backup options within mining and nuclear power to possibly pursue later.