A Methodology for Early-Phase Environmental Target Setting in Heavy-Duty Vehicle Development Combining Baseline Life Cycle Assessment and Delta-Based Analysis for Reference LCA Construction

Abstract

Environmental target setting in early-phase product development is challenged by limited data availability and reliability, as well as the difficulty of combining retrospective and prospective information. In industrial contexts such as heavy-duty vehicle development, full life cycle assessments (LCAs) are often not feasible at early stages, despite the significant influence of early design decisions on environmental performance. This thesis develops a transparent and repeatable methodology for constructing reference LCAs by combining baseline Life-Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) data with structured delta values representing project-specific changes through a case study. The approach enables the estimation of environmental performance for early-phase projects without requiring complete product definitions. The case-specific results demonstrate that climate impacts are highly concentrated within a limited number of systems, particularly the energy storage system (ESS) in battery electric vehicles (BEV). At the same time, the analysis reveals a weak alignment between identified hotspots and the locations of implemented changes. This indicates that development efforts are primarily driven by other factors than environment, with effects on sustainability often occurring as secondary outcomes. From a methodological perspective, the proposed approach provides a pragmatic alternative to full LCAs, enabling structured and decision-relevant assessments under conditions of uncertainty. While subject to limitations related to data quality and standardisation, the methodology supports early-phase environmental target setting by combining hotspot identification with change analysis. Overall, the study contributes a flexible and scalable framework that bridges the gap between environmental assessment and practical decision-making, supporting the integration of sustainability into industrial product development processes.