Risk Assessment of Transport of Dangerous Goods with GIS

Abstract

In urban densification there is an increased need to exploit, for example, areas close to transportation links with transport of dangerous goods. Before it is possible to exploit such areas, a risk assessment is necessary to ensure people’s health and safety. Different tools are used to assess the risk, two of them are RBM II used in the Netherlands and self-developed calculation models by consulting firms. An example of a self-developed calculation model is a spreadsheet calculation that has been developed by Norconsult. The spreadsheet calculation is a translation of RBM II with adaption to Swedish conditions and regulations, but with the limitation that all the calculations are made in a spreadsheet software. Thus, this thesis aims to examine the potential to use GIS as a tool to assess the risk of transport of dangerous goods. A first version of such a GIS-model was developed in the GIS-software QGIS. The first version was divided into two models, one with impact areas copied from the spreadsheet calculation and one with impact areas more similar to RMB II. Both GIS-models were validated against RBM II and the spreadsheet calculation. The validation was made on an imaginary case with a rectangular area and a road perpendicular to the area. The GIS-models were also compared with the spreadsheet calculation on a real case scenario where the risk already has been assessed by Norconsult. The result from the validation showed that the risk from the GIS-models is in accordance with both RBM II and the spreadsheet calculation regarding the total risk assessment. However, the exact number of fatalities and frequency did not match just as good. This could be explained by several factors including simplification of weather categories, distribution of population and different shapes of impact areas. There are some drawbacks with the created GIS-models that advantageously can be developed further. However, the case study showed several features in GIS that provides the possibility for making a more correct risk assessment. Thus, the overall conclusion was that a GIS-based approach can be used to assess the risk in transportation of dangerous goods.