Sida 1 av 81 Navigating Technology Adoption in Industries Undergoing Twin Transition A Case Study on Electrification and Automation in Road Haulage

Abstract

The global push for sustainability combined with technological advancements in digitization like AI and automation, often referred to as twin transition, represents a significant overhaul of long-established industry practices. This thesis explores the twin transition of the road haulage industry, which faces intense pressure to decarbonize and improve operational efficiency through automation. A critical bottleneck in this transition is the charging infrastructure, where current cable charging requires manual interaction, posing a barrier to fully autonomous vehicles. The aim of this thesis is to examine the determinants of technology adoption and diffusion during the early stages of the twin transition. By integrating concepts of twin transition and technological transitions with traditional diffusion literature, this study provides nuanced insights into the complexities of early-stage industry transformation. Using a case study approach with an industry-wide perspective, this thesis examines the widely-used cable charging and six emerging alternatives: robotic arms, battery swapping, conductive charging, inductive charging, electric roads, and pantograph systems. Findings reveal that the road haulage industry’s twin transition is sequential, prioritizing electrification over automation, with the subsequent autonomous transition evolving from and being constrained by the established electrified system. Furthermore, the findings underscore the reduced lock-in effects from the dominant cable charging due to the formation of technology clusters and stakeholder’s strategic flexibility. The clusters highlight the role of technology spillover and learning effects, which allow for collaborative development and testing of new solutions, whereas the flexibility means that industry actors experience less switching costs.