Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of Heat Pumps and Biomass CHP in Future Swedish District Heating Systems

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Examensarbete för masterexamen
Master's Thesis
Program
Sustainable energy systems (MPSES), MSc
Publicerad
2024
Författare
Bergander, Samuel
Hellander, Filip
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Sammanfattning
District heating systems are predicted to become an essential part of decarbonizing heat generation now and in the future. Power-to-heat technologies, such as heat pumps and electric boilers, could help the transition to sustainable district heating production while working as a flexibility measure in the coupled electricity market. Even though several studies single out heat pumps as a cheap and effective way to produce district heating, the current production mix is mainly based on combustion technologies producing heat with biomass. Additionally, as the share of renewables in the energy mix increases, heat pumps can play an important role in addressing flexibility and utilization of energy. This thesis aims to comparatively analyze elec tric air-source heat pumps and biomass combined heat and power heating systems, in the context of change for the future Swedish energy sector. Costs associated with heat production between two different energy technologies in district heating systems are investigated. A mixed linear optimization model is adapted to minimize the variable operational costs for different systems including heat pumps and biomass combined heat and power, concerning interesting techno economic properties, electricity prices, taxes, and fuel prices. The model is based on a reference system in Nyköping, Sweden, to realistically simulate and create district heating cases over annual periods. The details in energy modeling of district heating and technologies are also investigated, focusing on heat pumps and their coefficient of performance. A present and a future scenario are investigated by using different electricity spot price curves for the years 2019 and 2050. Results show that electricity-based heat pumps perform better in terms of cost-effectiveness in the Swedish district heating sector, both presently and in the future. A temperature-dependent approach is adapted to the coefficient of performance of heat pumps, resulting in a noticeable cost difference, underscoring the importance of accurately incorporating heat pumps in energy models. The possible savings using electricity instead of biomass are even more significant if the price of biomass continues to rise. The thesis also reveals that the power-to-heat tax, a tax on electricity to produce heat, is an important factor in further comprehending the potential of heat pumps in heat production in Sweden.
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Heat pump , Biomass combined heat and power (CHP) , District heating system , Thermal energy storage , Mixed-Integer Linear Programming , Coefficient Of Performance (COP)
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