Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of Heat Pumps and Biomass CHP in Future Swedish District Heating Systems
Typ
Examensarbete för masterexamen
Master's Thesis
Master's Thesis
Program
Sustainable energy systems (MPSES), MSc
Publicerad
2024
Författare
Bergander, Samuel
Hellander, Filip
Modellbyggare
Tidskriftstitel
ISSN
Volymtitel
Utgivare
Sammanfattning
District heating systems are predicted to become an essential part of decarbonizing
heat generation now and in the future. Power-to-heat technologies, such as heat
pumps and electric boilers, could help the transition to sustainable district heating
production while working as a flexibility measure in the coupled electricity market.
Even though several studies single out heat pumps as a cheap and effective way to
produce district heating, the current production mix is mainly based on combustion
technologies producing heat with biomass. Additionally, as the share of renewables
in the energy mix increases, heat pumps can play an important role in addressing
flexibility and utilization of energy. This thesis aims to comparatively analyze elec tric air-source heat pumps and biomass combined heat and power heating systems,
in the context of change for the future Swedish energy sector.
Costs associated with heat production between two different energy technologies
in district heating systems are investigated. A mixed linear optimization model is
adapted to minimize the variable operational costs for different systems including
heat pumps and biomass combined heat and power, concerning interesting techno economic properties, electricity prices, taxes, and fuel prices. The model is based on
a reference system in Nyköping, Sweden, to realistically simulate and create district
heating cases over annual periods. The details in energy modeling of district heating
and technologies are also investigated, focusing on heat pumps and their coefficient
of performance. A present and a future scenario are investigated by using different
electricity spot price curves for the years 2019 and 2050.
Results show that electricity-based heat pumps perform better in terms of cost-effectiveness in the Swedish district heating sector, both presently and in the future.
A temperature-dependent approach is adapted to the coefficient of performance of
heat pumps, resulting in a noticeable cost difference, underscoring the importance of
accurately incorporating heat pumps in energy models. The possible savings using
electricity instead of biomass are even more significant if the price of biomass continues to rise. The thesis also reveals that the power-to-heat tax, a tax on electricity
to produce heat, is an important factor in further comprehending the potential of
heat pumps in heat production in Sweden.
Beskrivning
Ämne/nyckelord
Heat pump , Biomass combined heat and power (CHP) , District heating system , Thermal energy storage , Mixed-Integer Linear Programming , Coefficient Of Performance (COP)