How much H2 in 2030 – where, to whom and with what probability? Quantifying hydrogen production in Sweden under different scenarios

Abstract

Hydrogen is widely regarded as a key enabler of decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors, yet its market development remains highly uncertain. This thesis investigates the potential scale and conditions for green hydrogen production in Sweden toward 2030 by combining project mapping, stakeholder interviews, and scenariobased modeling. The study aims to quantify future hydrogen production, identify key demand sectors, and analyze the main drivers and barriers influencing market development. The results indicate that potential production outcomes vary significantly depending on realization conditions. While an upper-bound estimate suggests a possible production capacity of approximately 660,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year, the most probable outcome is substantially lower under current conditions. The analysis identifies a limited number of large-scale industrial projects as system anchors that largely determine overall production volumes. A total of 43 hydrogen production projects were assessed using a probabilistic framework based on four core factors: project status, electricity bidding zone, public funding, and sector readiness. These were evaluated under three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3), complemented by Monte Carlo simulations to capture uncertainty in project realization. Key barriers include high production costs, uncertain demand, infrastructure limitations, and persistent coordination challenges between producers and consumers. The study concludes that hydrogen market development in Sweden is highly interdependent, relying on progress across both the hydrogen value chain and the regulatory landscape, and remains embedded within a broader global system. Achieving large-scale deployment therefore requires coordinated action, including strengthened and coherent policy frameworks, demand-side support mechanisms, and improved alignment between supply and demand.