Riskanalys för järnvägstransporter

Abstract

Transportation by train is one of the safest and most enviromentally friendly ways to travel and ship goods. The amount of transportation by road is developing faster than by railway in the EU. This is especially true when regarding hauled goods. The reasoning behind transportation choices is nuanced, but it can partly be explained by the uncertainties concerning long leadtimes and delays. Railroad delays can arise from many faults, where two important and unexplored areas of improvement are assessed in this report. The areas of interest are TKK, a Swedish component in railroad switch controls, and the effects of skew loading. This report analyses the TKK component and the skew loading for the purpose of possibly avoiding unnecessary delays and incidents. The report strives to provide suggestions that can improve the use of TKKs and the limits for the warning signals related to skew loading. Large amounts of data have been processed in each respective area. The aim has been to find patterns in skew loading and TKK alarm signals. To give a more qualitative assessment, reports have been analysed. One result that is shared for both TKK and skew loading is that the alarm signals that arise due to regulations imply a large socio-economic cost. Results from data evaluation on the rail switches show that a few critical scenarios occur each year where accidents could develop if not for TKKs. The results underly two distinct arguments for future recommendations. The discussion focuses heavily on determining the value of possibly increasing risk for the benefit of minimized socio-economic cost. The scope of the research is evaluated. The method used was analyzing previous measurements of load imbalance and signals regarding TKKs. The evaluated data is not completely representative for future risks. However, this method of predicting risk is very common for risk analysis today. Furthurmore the discussion includes ethical standpoints, as the subject of human safety is considered. Examples of developing the report is simulations of new switch monitoring systems, psychology of risk, comparison with other countries and gathering of larger data scopes. These subjects are presented in the discussion. Keywords: tungkontrollkontakt, TKK, spårväxlar, lastobalans, axlar, riskanalys, järnvägstrafik, Trafikverket