Two related niches and interactions between them: A case study on charging infrastructure for electric and autonomous electric trucks

Abstract

The road haulage industry is today facing three kinds of pressures that are driving change in the industry: climate change, the need for cost improvements, and driver shortages. These are pushing the industry towards electrification as well as a higher degree of automation which are representing two ongoing transitions. One element of interest in the ongoing transitions is the charging infrastructure, which is argued to be one of the most crucial barriers to a large-scale adoption of electric trucks. Further, the coexistence of electric and autonomous electric trucks and their respective charging solutions (manual and non-manual) brings up the question of how these two different solutions could impact each other.

This thesis is investigating how one of two related niches, i.e charging for manual electric trucks (MET charging) and charging for autonomous electric trucks (AET charging), is developing through investment and learning effects and influencing the other niche. The research was designed as a case study with an abductive approach. The study includes two parts, a techno-economic perspective, and a wider system perspective. Together with a case company, a scenario model was developed for the techno-economic perspective and external interviews with various actors in the industry were conducted for the system perspective. Three dimensions: technology, knowledge and know-how and societal constituted an analytical framework for the study.

Findings show investment and learning effects as well as interactions in the form of both positive and negative externalities within all three dimensions. The most prominent positive externalities are seen in the knowledge and know-how dimension, e.g investment in training and skills within battery management and schedule optimization. The study shows that the type of externality depends on what perspective one has and contributes to previous literature by showing that different types of externalities can be present within the same dimension, at the same time. Hence, the study shed light on transition dynamics by picturing the complexity of niche-niche interactions. Further, the study shows tendencies of that interactions could change over time as the less mature niche develops.

Regarding implications for firms with both MET and AET operations, they should aim at leveraging positive externalities and minimizing negative externalities. This study suggests a strategy with an increased focus on flexibility when building charging infrastructure in order to prepare for the future. Another strategy for leveraging location-specific positive externalities, such as grid capacity, and simultaneously reducing sunk costs is to add AET chargers next to the MET chargers instead of replacing the MET chargers.