Gas Turbine’s share in the future electricity system, under the effect of EU ETS policies. A Modeling of the future energy transition, considering CO2 reduction policies by European ETS

Abstract

Power generation plays a significant role in global warming, as it is a primary source responsible for emitting a substantial amount of harmful greenhouse gas (GHG) pollutants into the atmosphere, and this topic presents a critical and concerning problem on a global scale [1]. As part of implemented actions against global warming, the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is a functioning mechanism managing European emission reduction policies [2]. On the other hand, using gas turbines (GT) in power generation, specifically with natural gas, has been a well established method for converting fuel to electricity. The primary objective of this study is to identify the future share of gas turbine application in the electricity production market(considering the SGT-800 gas turbine, a mid-range Siemens Energy product) under the effect of EU ETS possible scenarios. In addition, possible sustainable solutions for gas turbine applications, specifically hydrogen (H2) as a carbon-free fuel and carbon capture system (CCS), are under consideration. By modeling various potential scenarios and analyzing the outcomes and trends, the study will shed light on how gas turbine market share and competitiveness might be affected in the future. Emission CAP, carbon cost, and Net Zero target year represent EU ETS policies. In addition to EU ETS measures, some techno-economical items have been considered, consisting of power generation modes for gas turbines (simple and combined cycles), which determines the efficiency of electrical generation plants, investment and operation costs, available carbon storage capacities, and different shares of renewable energy systems (RES) in electricity production. The cost of fuels and phasing out old technologies (nuclear and fossil fuels including coal and oil) [3] will be considered technical parameters and, simultaneously, could be complementary policies in different scenarios. The global energy transition (GET) model generates the solutions with the lowest cost for future electricity mix under various technology assumptions and CO2 emission constraints. Results revealed a significant role of emission CAP, in parallel with a proper carbon cost. At the same time, CO2 storage capacity and penetration of RES in the electricity market also have considerable effectson gas turbine application. Based on different scenario outcomes, hydrogen(H2) as a carbon-freefuel for GT and CO2-capturing technology in power plants are effective solutions for integrating gas turbine-based power plants in a more sustainable future energy system.