The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Real Estate Valuation in Gothenburg
Typ
Examensarbete för masterexamen
Program
Design and construction project management (MPDCM), MSc
Publicerad
2020
Författare
Lennartsson, Amalie
Olsson, Lars
Modellbyggare
Tidskriftstitel
ISSN
Volymtitel
Utgivare
Sammanfattning
The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) will have an impact on the infrastructure of cities in the coming years. The city of Gothenburg is already testing AVs but there is still a lack of research on how this may impact how residential buildings are valued within urban environments. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how and to which extent the implementation of AVs may affect real estate value in the city of Gothenburg. To do this, real estate value factors and parameters were adapted from a report by Spacescape (2016) that described what the citizens of Gothenburg value in their residential buildings. There are three different real estate value factors: Density, Accessibility and Recreation which were applied to condominiums and houses. Each factor has several parameters with variables that explains how they are affecting real estate value. There is a weighting between the parameters which describes how much each factor was deemed to contribute to real estate value.
The implementation of AVs was projected as two possible future scenarios with AVs fully implemented in urban environments. The first scenario is called Privately owned Autonomous Vehicles (POAV) which assumes that all privately owned manual vehicles have been replaced with POAV. The second scenario is called Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAV) assumes that all privately owned manual vehicles have been replaced with shared AVs which are used as a service. This study investigated potential impacts from the two scenarios on the real estate value parameters from Spacescape (2016) by creating assumptions regarding AV effects on Parking, Roads, Traffic flow and Value of time. The effects from AVs depending on the scenario were then compared to each value adding parameter. From that, a potential positive or negative impact on real estate value parameters could be estimated which were summarised as qualitative results.
To validate the assumptions regarding AVs effects on the real estate value parameters a questionnaire and interviews were conducted with 13 participants working within the fields of future transportation, city development, traffic and real estate. The result from the interview study was summarised and indicated how the real estate value parameters most likely would change with the implementation of AVs. There were discrepancies between the results from the literature study and the interview study which were addressed in the discussion. The discussion brings up weaknesses and strengths of the study. In conclusion, for scenario POAV there is two potential positive impacts from AVs and two potential negative impacts. These impacts could cause three outcomes, with either an increase in real estate value, a decrease of real estate value or no change. For scenario SAVs, real estate value in Gothenburg will either increase or stay the same. Thus, when comparing the outcomes from the two scenarios, SAV is more attractive scenario from a real estate value perspective. As this study is speculative in its results, the conclusions reached should thus only be considered as speculative as well. Depending on how autonomous vehicles are implemented and with which laws and policies are implemented to regulate the usage of AVs will ultimately decide how real estate value will change consequently.
Beskrivning
Ämne/nyckelord
Accessibility , Autonomous vehicle , Density , Real estate value , Recreation