The Future of Autonomous Cars -A Scenario Analysis of Emergence and Adoption

Examensarbete för masterexamen

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Type: Examensarbete för masterexamen
Master Thesis
Title: The Future of Autonomous Cars -A Scenario Analysis of Emergence and Adoption
Authors: Barrehag, Ludvig
Abstract: Despite the substantial evolution of exterior and interior appearance as well as technology performance in cars ever since the development of the model T, one thing has remained constant - cars have always had a driver. The concept of dislodging the driver from controlling the vehicle opens up for new potential applications as well as business models. In fact, the removal of the driver is arguably the most significant and transformative innovation ever faced by the automotive industry. This transition will impact not only the automotive industry but also entire societies in several ways. Cars are severely under-utilized as they are standing still during the majority of their life-time. In addition, many people spend a significant time of their life in the driver seat of their car. To imagine that this time could be spent on something else, something more value adding, opens up for interesting ideas. The benefits with autonomous cars are many and the questions about when they will come and how fast people will adopt them are therefore relevant. This study aims to answer both of these questions based on forecasting techniques. A crucial point in forecasting is the recognition that they most of the time turn out to be wrong. That is a natural consequence of the vast amount of random events that can occur - irregular events and pure chance is an integral part of our world. With that in mind, it is not farfetched to question the usefulness of forecasting. However, the alternative – to simply sit and wait for the future to happen – is even worse. In order to account for the uncertainty in forecasting new technology this study is based on three different scenarios. This includes a base-line scenario following an extrapolation on the current development along with a pessimistic scenario and an optimistic scenario. These scenarios provide boundaries within which autonomous cars of various levels are highly likely to emerge and be adopted. This study finds that autonomous cars will emerge between 2018 and 2025 and reach an adoption rate of between 1 and 77 million annual sales in 2030.
Keywords: Transport;Innovation och entreprenörskap (nyttiggörande);Övrig annan teknik;Transport;Innovation & Entrepreneurship;Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: Chalmers tekniska högskola / Institutionen för teknikens ekonomi och organisation
Chalmers University of Technology / Department of Technology Management and Economics
Series/Report no.: Master thesis. E - Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden
Collection:Examensarbeten för masterexamen // Master Theses

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