Degrowth for regrowth: speculative scenarios in a fossil-free future

Abstract

Degrowth for Regrowth aims to explore possible scenarios of the future where society is fundamentally restructured, in its values as well as in its built environment. It takes its stance in degrowth theory, which questions the neoliberal market’s regard of growing GDP as synonymous with prosperity, abundance and freedom. Rather, it highlights that an approach of infinite economic growth is dependent on increased resource use, production and consumption, and is the cause behind our current social and environmental crises. Mainstream sustainability efforts rarely question the idea of continual economic growth, they rather promote it as a measure of realizing a sustainable society. Instead of aiming for concepts such as “green growth”, which continually allows economic gain to be the main target within sustainable development, the idea of degrowth is to reformulate the definition of success towards socio-ecological values. This theoretical framework creates the foundation of three future scenario formulations set in 2050: collaborative economy, local self- sufficiency, and automation for quality of life (Svenfelt et al, 2019). These scenarios, combined with architectural reference projects which have overlapping key ideas, become a base for defining three future design concepts. These design concepts are followingly implemented on a chosen site, which is an extensive landscape currently hosting an oil refinery. The site becomes relevant to explore as an area in need of transformation in a future which no longer relies on fossil fuels. The implementations are made with a speculative design approach as a way to shift mind-sets, stir creativity, and focus on desirable outlooks rather than dystopias. Each implementation presents different ideas on spatial qualities, community organisation, and cultural-natural relationships which enhance human and ecological well-being. As a result of this process, the thesis concludes that visualizing the future in different scenarios can be a powerful method to enable discussion of what we actually aim for in long-term physical planning. It can be an effective pedagogical tool to understand multiple target groups and stakeholders in trans- disciplinary collaborations, as it can transform abstract desires into tangible visual representations. Using future scenarios could thus enable architectural and planning professions to effectively contribute to concrete strategy formulations which reach beyond current sustainability efforts.